NBA - 503 Golden State Warriors @ 504 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected lines: 200 points | PK line
Cleveland is coming from a game against Charlotte, where the Bobcats
defense once again highly struggled near the basket. Cleveland scored
54 points in the paint and shot 24-39 FG at the rim! Besides that,
Charlotte couldn't defend transition plays and the Cavaliers took
advantage of that to shoot 12-17 FG in transition and 21 fast break
points. However, Cleveland struggled once again from the outside. So,
will Cleveland be able to have a similar game today against the
Warriors? The Cavs perimeter offense in their last 5 games has been
struggling: 35% FG 16-23 feet (38% overall) and 28% 3pts (36% overall).
Cleveland is very good team in transitions (4th with 1.22 PPP and 14.1%
volume), however Golden State is curiously a decent team in defending
this kind of plays by being ranked 10th in the league with 1.11 PPP
allowed.
On the other side, Golden State won't be able to score their usual
fast break points, as Cleveland is the best defense in the league in
terms of allowing transition plays, however the Warriors have two huge
edges for tonight on their offense. The Warriors are the best offense in
the league in Post Up plays, while Cleveland is last in defending this
kind of plays! Also Golden State is 7th on offense in terms of Spot Up
plays, while Cleveland has just the 21st best defense in allowing Spot
Up plays! So, even with struggles on their transition plays, Golden
State will be more than okay offensively tonight.
I predict a really close game tonight and the truth is that I
believe this game should have had a PK line! Therefore, I see value on
the Warriors tonight and I'll take them in here. Both teams have some
offensive edges tonight and with the Warriors coach Mark Jackson using
small ball the whole 4th quarter at Detroit with success, I believe
Golden State will try to run more today by putting Biedrins on the bench
for a while. Cleveland is a quite athletic team and with Gibson and
Irving on the backcourt, they will have no problems in running tonight.
So, I came up with a totals projection of 200 points for this game, good
enough for me to take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Golden State Warriors (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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