NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz

New York  at Utah

NBA - 747 New York Knicks @ 748 Utah Jazz Play #3 Because the Hawks are imploding down the stretch, the Knicks have a great chance to grab the final seed for the playoffs but they just have to win games like today’s contest @UTA. Both teams are playing @b2b spot and both had to travel so we are dealing w/ similar physical spot for both of them. I understand that we should not trust the Knicks to be consistent but they really have a favorable matchup vs. the Jazz in here. UTA’s perimeter defense is atrocious! In the L10 games, they are allowing 49.1% from 3pts land – FORTY NINE PERCENT! Obviously, this is the worst mark in the league during that stretch by a wide margin (ranked #29 DEN is allowing 40.7%). We all know that NYK attempts a ton of treys per game so I expect them to explore this massive UTA’s defensive weakness. Also, after facing Andre Iguodala last night, Carmelo Anthony will face R. Jefferson in this contest – also a favorable matchup. On the other end, UTA keeps playing w/ Kanter & Favors as their starters on the frontcourt. With both players on the court at the same time, UTA’s offensive numbers have been terrible because their floor spacing is subpar in a similar way of HOU’s situation w/ Howard & Asik early on the season. Amare Stoudemire has been decent lately and I expect NYK’s to match well vs. UTA’s big men. With NYK having a substantial edge on the perimeter, I expect them to win this contest by a safe margin. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 747 New York Knicks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/07: Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks

Utah  at Dallas

NBA - 815 Utah Jazz @ 816 Dallas Mavericks *** FREE Premium Play*** The Mavericks’ offense has been playing @ unbelievable level as of late. I have them w/ 125 Off. Rtg. in the L6 games – insane numbers! Sure that they have faced some poor defensive teams during this stretch (BKN, DET, SAC and/or CLE) but scoring 110 points @MEM is a truly good testament of how good they are scoring the basketball right now. Dirk Nowitzki has been a beast - he made 10 of 14 shots for 26 points @MEM and he’s averaging 29.8 points on 61.6 percent shooting in his last five games. Well, I don’t expect UTA’s defense to be a tough matchup for them, as UTA is a subpar defensive team in key areas where DAL’s offense excels (P&R’s, spot up and transition). The key question for me it’s related w/ UTA’s offensive production for tonight… We are talking about a team that has scored 90, 87 and 79 pts L3 games. My key  factor for such bad offensive outcomes: Rookie Trey Burke is “tired” (pretty normal for a rookie) and G. Hayward is struggling a bit since he returned from an injury… just look for the combined FG% numbers from these 2 players in L3 games: vs. GSW: 3-20 FG; vs. LAC 5-26 FG & vs. TOR 7-25 FG. Also, those 3 teams are elite defensive teams vs. P&R ball handler -> a key offensive play for UTA. The good news for UTA is that they had 3 days off to rest and recharge the batteries for this contest, while Burke & Hayward will face tonight Jose Calderon & Monta Ellis, so they have a good matchup as well to be decent offensively. Also DAL interior defense is also far from being a decent unit and D. Favors will play tonight. Therefore, I expect both teams to have a considerable on offense and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.  Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/18: Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic

Utah  at Orlando

NBA - 703 Utah Jazz @ 704 Orlando Magic Play #2 Utah had no chance at Miami, just like I predicted by taking both the Heat and the Over. Offensively, the Jazz managed to score near the basket with 58 points in the paint, with both Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors having good games, but they heavily struggled on the back court. Utah relies on pick and rolls via Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke, but they faced Miami's great ball pressuring defense that is #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense and also #1 in forcing turnovers. This made Utah's main two guards to combine 3-16 FG, 6 assists and 5 turnovers! Thanks to this, Utah shot just 5-18 3pts! It was a tough match up for them and so, they struggled as expected. Defensively, Utah's poor perimeter defense was explored by Miami with a huge match up edge on LeBron James who did whatever he wanted to do with 13-17 FG and 9 assists. The good news for today is that Utah will now face an Orlando defense that isn't aggressive against ball handlers by being just #26 on creating turnovers and #21 on pick and roll ball handler defense. The Magic's interior defense is also sub par, so this is definitely a good spot for Utah's offense. Orlando's spot for tonight isn't good, as they had back to back games at Oklahoma City and at Chicago, where they were competitive. Thanks to that, coach Vaughn used a short rotation. The Magic's 3pts shooting has been struggling lately with just 32.6% over the last 10 games. They have no talent to explore Utah's bad perimeter defense. The Jazz's defense has been horrible, but they are coming from facing Miami, San Antonio, Denver, Sacramento, Portland, Sacramento, Indiana, Houston and Phoenix twice in a row! Not easy at all! Now against a much easier opponent, I expect Utah to be highly competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Utah Jazz (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/13: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

Utah  at Denver

NBA - 821 Utah Jazz @ 822 Denver Nuggets Play #3 I don’t think that Jazz Head Coach Tyrone Corbin is a good coach for several reasons, but at least IMO he made the right decision to not start Favors and Kanter together as these two players are way too similar to share big minutes on the floor (just like the dilemma Howard & Asik @HOU earlier on the season). Marvin Williams isn’t a great player at all but his ability to spread the floor @PF position is working for the Jazz right now as their offense looks more fluid. Marvin had a nice 4-game stretch in which he shot 7-14 FG, 7-11 FG, 6-11 FG & 4-10 FG while hitting at least 2 treys in every game and the Jazz defeated CHI, PHX & HOU in that stretch. Eventually he got injured, missed 4 games (all UTA clear losses) and returned last game just to help the Jazz crush the Kings on the road. With rookie PG Trey Burke running sharp pick n rolls & better floor spacing, the Jazz went from having Off. Rtg = 96.1 in the first 16 games of the season vs. 114.3 in L8 games! They are not an elite team but they aren’t the same pathetic team that started the season. Tonight they will catch a Nuggets team that enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after being on the road for quite some time. I took them in L3 games (@BOS, @PHI & @WAS) just because they were facing some favorable matchups and their superior depth was a premium factor that really helped them to win the last 2 games. However, although I won L2 plays w/ them I have to say that they looked awful (especially their starting unit) and they were able to win b/c PHI is a terrible team and the Wizards were seriously shorthanded for that game. I understand that Ty Lawson didn’t play in the last 2 games and he is probable for tonight’s game, but I think the Nuggets right now are a bit overrated and probably way too much confident, while the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season with all players healthy. The Nuggets already faced the Jazz this season and crushed them @UTA 100-81 but that was the time where John Lucas III was starting for the Jazz and playing 34 minutes…. Enough said! My fair line for this contest is DEN-6/-8 points so we have some edge on the Underdog getting double digits points and therefore I’m taking the Utah Jazz as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821 Utah Jazz (+10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/06: Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics

Utah  at Boston

NBA - 509 Utah Jazz @ 510 Boston Celtics Play #3 It's already known that Utah doesn't have a lot of offensive talent on the perimeter. So, it's not surprising that they shot 5-17, 4-22 and 4-18 3pts on their last three games, as they are really weak on shooting treys, excluding Gordon Hayward. Their strength is on the frontcourt and on their ability to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. Yesterday against Brooklyn's super big lineup, who was smart in packing the paint, Utah's offense struggled badly to score down low, ending the game with just 26 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-22 FG near the basket! Brooklyn had merit in that by being a super tough matchup for the Jazz. On the other side, Utah's frontcourt was pounded by Brook Lopez who crushed them with 10-13 FG, 7-9 FT and 27 points in just 25 minutes! The good news is that this blowout win of the Nets allowed Utah to rest their key players for tonight's game at Boston. So, it's important to know how Boston's interior defense has been playing regarding paint defense and defensive rebounding. The best news for Utah is that the Celtics are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league so far with a very poor 66.1% defensive rebound rate! Their opponents are averaging 15 offensive rebounds per game against them and so, the Jazz will have plenty of second chance points tonight. Boston is allowing 44.5 points in the paint this season and if we look at their frontcourt formed by Faverani, Bass, Olynyk and Sullinger, I believe that Utah with Kanter and Favors will have a mega edge on this area tonight. On the other side, Boston's offense has been struggling a lot due to their lack of talent. This is why they had just 15, 13, 15 and 14 assists on their first four games of the season! If we exclude their game against Milwaukee, Boston scored very few points in the paint, while their outside shooting isn't good at all as well. This line of five points is too high for Utah, as even though the Jazz are on a back to back spot tonight, Utah didn't make a big effort yesterday. So, their edge on rebounding and frontcourt will make this game at least quite competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking Utah in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Utah Jazz (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Utah Jazz NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

UTAH JAZZ

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	90.9	21
Offense	106.7	10
Defense	106.8	21
Rebound	51.1	8

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	49,2	15	eFG%	50,1	18
TO%	13,8	15	TO%	14,0	12
Reb%	28,8	7	Reb%	26,8	21
FT%	21,4	11	FT%	22,6	26

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-8	106.9	106.7
December	6-9	108.2	112.3
January	10-4	108.3	109.5
February	6-6	108.7	107.6
March	7-9	108.2	107.7
April	5-3	107.8	108.1

The Utah Jazz were one of the surprises of the lockout season by grabbing the #8 seed in the competitive Western Conference. With all teams having to deal with a terrible schedule, the Jazz took advantage of their superior depth especially on the frontcourt and their usual home court dominance (25-8 home; 11-22 road) to be competitive.

Then, on the last season, with the regular schedule back, this depth edge of the Jazz wasn’t so visible, but with a young roster to work, coach Tyrone Corbin had on his hands a roster capable of being competitive.

Utah ended last season with a 43-39 record, having the possibility to qualify for the playoffs again, but they failed that goal on the last day of the regular season.

But what really caught my attention on the Jazz last season was Coach Corbin’s inability to take advantage of his roster, without knowing what to do at times. Utah’s most used lineup last season was Jefferson-Millsap-Ma.Williams-Foye-Tinsley with 454 minutes of action, a lineup that was badly outplayed by their opponents, with a 104 offensive rating and a 112 defensive rating!

Corbin had a group of four good frontcourt players, but who were relatively one-dimensional: Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are good on offense, but subpar defensively, while Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter are the opposite. Common sense wise, it would be prudent to combine a good offensive player with a good defensive player in the lineup, but Corbin didn't do that and started the two good offensive players.

The Jazz’s “big lineup” (with three frontcourt players on the court at the same time: Jefferson – Favors – Millsap) had been used by Corbin in the previous season and with some success, but they had just one quick opportunity to succeed last season in November and Utah won the two games where they used that lineup (83-76 at Washington; 102-91 against Houston). But even though they won both games, Corbin didn't use that big lineup again throughout the season.

But Utah’s main problem last season was in managing the team’s backcourt, which didn't have the same individual talent as their frontcourt. Gordon Hayward was sent into the bench to have a 6^th man role for most of the season, something weird, as the Jazz started most of the games with Marvin Williams, Randy Foye and Jamaal Tinsley on the backcourt thanks to that. Young players who could give the team a lot of energy, especially on defense, like Alec Burks and DeMarre Carroll were snubbed in order to give more minutes to veterans who could bring very little quality to the team.

So, it isn't surprising to see that from all teams that ended the past season with a winning record, the Jazz were the team with the worst average 1^st quarter margin, an area where they ranked just #20 in the league with a -0.9 point differential per game. Utah was able to spank the lowly teams of the league with a 28-8 record versus teams with a record below 0.500, but they were constantly outplayed by top teams with an 18-34 record versus teams with a record above 0.500.

Offseason Report:

It was clear that it would be close to impossible for the Jazz to continue with the services of both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, who were both free agents. The most probable scenario was the Jazz focusing their efforts in securing one of these players, with youth being the main factor, but at the end the truth is that Al Jefferson went to Charlotte and Paul Millsap to Atlanta.

Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors indeed needed more minutes in order to develop quicker, but without both Jefferson and Millsap in Utah, their responsibility this season will go from little to huge!

It’s surprising to see that all veterans that Coach Corbin trusted more last season than the youngsters left the team during the off-season. Marvin Williams is just the exception to that, possibly because he has no market value. This just shows how weird Corbin’s decisions were last season.

Ever since Deron Williams was traded to the Nets, the Jazz struggled to find a PG to lead them. This time the Jazz took a gamble on the draft and selected Trey Burke from Michigan, who will be the team’s starting PG since they have no other better option on their roster in that position.

Utah made some minor deals to improve their depth with the acquisition of John Lucas, Brandon Rush, Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins.

NBA Premium Play 04/17: Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 521 Utah Jazz @ 522 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: pk line

Utah needs to win tonight to have a shot of reaching the playoffs, but they need to win tonight and wait for the Rockets to beat the Lakers later tonight. Therefore, there is a clear motivation edge for the Jazz tonight, as Memphis has very little chances of getting homecourt edge, as I don't believe the Grizzlies are expecting that the Clippers and the Nuggets lose their games tonight against the Kings and the Suns respectively. Therefore, I expect Memphis to do in here exactly what they did at Memphis: prepare for the playoffs. In that game at Dallas, nobody played more than 24 minutes and in fact, they even signed Donte Greene and Willie Reed today in order to play them tonight instead of their starters.

On the other hand, I expect Utah to use their best players at heavy dosage, as this is a must-win situation for them. The Jazz's frontcourt wouldn't have a frontcourt edge against Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, but they will have a clear edge over the Grizzlies's second unit. I expect at least a tight game in here, therefore I see a lot of value on Utah tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521 Utah Jazz (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/12: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 723 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 724 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 200 points

This matchup is perfect for a high scoring game. Minnesota is currently showing no effort on defense and that was evident on their last two games where they allowed 105 and 111 to the Warriors and the Clippers. They also allowed 18, 20 and 22 fast break points on their last three games. Utah is coming from a home loss against Oklahoma City, where their frontcourt was outmuscled by a powerful and focused Thunder's frontcourt that only allowed the Jazz to score 36 points in the paint, even though they were effective with 12-15 FG at the rim.

Things will be much easier for Utah tonight. Minnesota has one of the worst rim defenses in the league and they also allowed 1.00 PPP on post up plays over their last 10 games! On the other side, Utah's pick and roll ball handler defense has been terrible as well with 0.82 PPP allowed on their last 10 games. Their transition defense has been also quite lazy lately, so the Wolves's backcourt led by Ricky Rubio has also a good matchup to have a nice offensive matchup tonight. Therefore, I expect a high scoring affair in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 513 Brooklyn Nets @ 514 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: pk line

I have no problems in admitting that I made a mistake in taking the Nets yesterday at Denver. In fact, the biggest error of my card yesterday was taking the Nets on a game where they showed no interest in getting physical with Denver. They turned the ball too much with 21 turnovers, they shot 18-36 FT and they didn't want to bang around with Denver's frontcourt, allowing 62 points in the paint in the process. When Brook Lopez had 4-15 FG and 3-9 FT versus Kostas Koufos, who shoot 6-8 FG, something is wrong with the Nets.

In my opinion, this happened due to the fact that Brooklyn knew that it was going to be impossible to be competitive in back to back games in Denver and then in Utah. Definitely, tonight's game is much more important for their team leader Deron Williams and so, I expect Deron and the rest of the Nets to show a major effort tonight in Deron's comeback to Utah. He will have a very favorable matchup tonight, as Mo Williams is undersized and he can't really defend, while Utah's Coach Corbin keeps using Jamaal Tinsley off the bench instead of giving major minutes to their best PG Alec Burks. Thanks to that, Brooklyn will have a huge positional edge tonight.

The frontcourt duel will be very interesting in tonight's game. Utah's frontcourt crushed Portland tonight, with Paul Millsap shooting 10-14 FG, Al Jefferson 11-21 FG and Derrick Favors 6-8 FG, but the story will be much different tonight, as Utah won't be facing a banged up J.J. Hickson and Meyers Leonard tonight. The Nets have Brook Lopez, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche on the frontcourt and I expect the Nets to make this frontcourt duel at least a 50/50 one.

Utah may have won their last three games, but all these wins were in very favorable circumstances. They defeated Philadelphia, a team that was playing the last game of their road trip and they saved their players throughout the game. Then, they defeated the lowly Suns who played without Goran Dragic and finally, they defeated Portland on the road, who played without their best player LaMarcus Aldridge. I believe Utah is being overrated tonight and so, I'll be taking the Nets plus the points in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/25: Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 609 Philadelphia 76ers @ 610 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 188 points

This game will be played on a poor spot for both teams, as Utah will be playing their third game in four nights, after having played an overtime game at San Antonio last Friday and at Dallas last night, while Philadelphia will play their last game of their road trip, after having finally won a road game at Sacramento last night. Philadelphia may actually show some offense early on the game with their nice backcourt offense, however they will eventually collapse offensively on such poor spot. They depend a lot from Jrue Holiday and he had played 43-43-41-33-38-39 minutes on the team's last six games! Holiday is also shooting just 42.2% FG and averaging 4.1 turnovers per game on back to back spots. 

The Sixers attempt a lot of 16-23 feet jumpers and so, when they struggle physically due to poor spots, they tend to miss these tough jumpers and eventually score a low number of points. They looked very good last night against the Kings with 14-19 FG at the rim, 18-35 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-21 treys, but no way they will be able to repeat such performance tonight on a poor spot for them. With Philadelphia having so much volume of offense on long jumpers, they will heavily struggle on offense tonight, especially because they aren't aggressive and so, they don't shoot a lot of free throws and don't grab offensive rebounds as well. So, they have no chance of scoring a lot when they don't make their jumpers.

On the other side, Utah is also on a tough spot for tonight. They are coming from two tight games against the Spurs and the Mavericks, in two contests where they've shown no identity on offense. There is a lot of indefiniteness on the rotations and the bench players never know if they're playing 30 minutes or 5 minutes on a given night. Philadelphia is a decent defensive rebounding team and even their rim defense isn't poor. Their problem is generally their lack of fresh legs to rotate on the wings and make good close outs, but Utah isn't the kind of team that can explore Philadelphia's problems on their perimeter defense, as their outside shooting is poor. Therefore, I expect this contest to be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 609/610 Under 192 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/20: Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 613 Utah Jazz @ 614 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 12 points

Utah is coming from a pathetic home loss against the Knicks. If their defensive performance was poor, as the super shorthanded Knicks shot 46.4% FG, their offensive performance was ridiculous. Of course Utah dominated the boards by grabbing 60% of the rebounds, but if their team had the skills to crush the Knicks down low, Utah decided to settle for jump shots and scored just 22 points in the paint, with 6-10 FG at the rim, while they shot 9-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-19 treys! Volume wise, this is 13% of shots at the rim vs 34% of shots coming from 16-23 feet + 25% treys! This is the result of a terrible coaching job who allowed this to happen, while their opponents also were terrible with Mo Williams and Gordon Hayward taking more shots than Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap! Houston was humiliated at home against Golden State, in a game where they were overconfident having winning their first three games of the season against Golden State. The Rockets didn't defend at all, while their 3pts shots weren't effective this time with 9-35 treys! The Rockets raised their intensity at the start of the second half with a 26-8 run, but they couldn't keep up that for the rest of the game. 

The Rockets have a great bounce back spot for tonight. They will be facing perhaps the worst backcourt defense in the league. Mo Williams and Randy Foye won't have a chance to defend Jeremy Lin and James Harden. In fact, the Jazz are #27 in the league on pick and roll ball handler and #29 on spot up defense. Houston's offense is an elite unit on these two areas by being #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handlers and #7 on spot ups, so they will crush Utah tonight. On the other hand, Utah would have in theory an edge down low against Houston, as Omer Asik is their only legit post up player on defense, but the Jazz showed against the Knicks that they don't have any identity on offense right now. Houston crushed Utah on the road on the last game between these two teams and even though there is a lot of talk about revenge for tonight, the truth is that Utah had lost in NY against the Knicks by 84-113 and we all know what happened last Monday night. I expect a very easy win for the Rockets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 614 Houston Rockets (-7,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 03/18: New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 521 New York Knicks @ 522 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 192 points

The Knicks are super banged up on the frontcourt, as they won't have Tyson Chandler, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace available for tonight's game, while even Kurt Thomas is also questionable for this contest. Due to so many injuries on the frontcourt, the Knicks will have to present a super small lineup tonight with a lot of shooters on the court, something that might actually work well against Utah's poor perimeter defense. On the other hand, Utah will ear the super undersized Knicks alive down low, as they have Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors ready to pound the veterans Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby time and time again. I also expect the Jazz to push up the pace tonight in order to wear down the veteran Knicks, who are on a back to back spot and without any kind of depth right now. Therefore, I expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 188,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/16: Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 511 Memphis Grizzlies @ 512 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: Utah by 6 points

This is a completely catastrophic spot for the Grizzlies. They will play their fourth game in five days, with all of them being on the road and against decent teams. To make things even worse, their games at Portland, at LA against the Clippers and last night at Denver were ball games, so the Grizzlies never had a moment to really rest their key players. For example, last night at Denver, all their starters played at least 35 minutes and so, it wasn't a surprise that they got outscored by 14-29 in the fourth quarter by the Nuggets, where the Grizzlies clearly showed lack of fresh legs down the stretch. Memphis was competitive at Denver mostly thanks to a clear rebounding edge, where they grabbed 55% of the rebounds, something impressive against a team like Denver! Zach Randolph had 10 offensive rebounds on his own!

The main problem for Memphis tonight is that they will have to play tonight once again and they will play in one of the toughest towns in the league. If Memphis showed lack of fresh legs in the fourth quarter against Denver, their legs won't be fresher tonight at Utah. The Jazz has been struggling this season on their perimeter defense, especially since the return of Mo Williams, who forms with Randy Foye, a really poor defensive backcourt duo. However, the Grizzlies's perimeter shooting is poor, they are dead last in the league in 3pts attempts per game and they won't be effective tonight on their long jumpers, looking at the horrible physical spot they have for tonight.

Therefore, this game will quickly turn into a physical inside battle, where the rested Jazz will have a clear edge over the Grizzlies, with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors overpowering the tired Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who have been forced to play heavy minutes during this road trip due to the lack of quality frontcourt options on the bench with Darrell Arthur's injury. Utah is 0-2 against Memphis this season and they were humiliated at home against this very same Grizzlies team, in a contest where they got outscored by 10-28 in the third quarter. Now with Memphis being in such a horrible spot tonight, I expect Utah to get revenge over them and get an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Utah Jazz (-2) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 03/08: Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls

Utah  at Chicago

NBA - 813 Utah Jazz @ 814 Chicago Bulls Projected Line: Chicago by 1 point Chicago is struggling with so many injuries. Their offense is lacking consistency as usual, while their defense has been a bit weaker than usual and their rebounding is now giving them problems, something that isn't normal to happen, but we can say that's expected as they are playing without Taj Gibson and with a banged up Joakim Noah. This problem will be very exposed by Utah, who has been dominating the boards lately. Al Jefferson will play tonight and so, the Jazz will have their regular four frontcourt players available tonight, while the Bulls will only have Nazr Mohammed on the bench on the frontcourt unit. Utah had a late choke at Cleveland, in a game where they led for most of the time until Kyrie Irving took over the game. The Jazz's backcourt defense has been their major defensive problem, especially when Coach Corbin decides to put Mo Williams defending Kyrie Irving! But fortunately for them, Chicago has no backcourt player that can make a similar damage that Irving did to him, unless Derrick Rose suddenly plays tonight, something that seems to be very unlikely right now. Utah is also improving on their rotation. Marvin Williams has pretty much left the rotation, Jamaal Tinsley isn't playing anymore, Alec Burks is playing more time, Gordon Hayward looks healthier, while Mo Williams has returned to the lineup as well. Chicago won at Utah earlier on the season, but on very different circumstances. Chicago dominated the boards battle with Taj Gibson playing very well with 14 points and 8 rebounds in 31 minutes. On the other hand, the Jazz's starting backcourt was atrocious with Marvin Williams shooting 1-6 FG in 30 minutes, while Jamaal Tinsley shot 0-2 FG in 32 minutes. Also Gordon Hayward was out of that game and he is a key piece on the team's offense. I expect a super competitive game tonight and so, I'll be taking Utah in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813 Utah Jazz (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/06: Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Utah  at Cleveland

NBA - 705 Utah Jazz @ 706 Cleveland Cavaliers Projected Line: Utah by 4 points Cleveland wasted a 22-points lead last Monday against the Knicks and even though Marreese Speights scored 23 points, Coach Byron Scott said he wasn't impressed with him, as Speights keep frustrating coaches with his poor basketball IQ, questionable shot selection and lack of energy. "I thought in the first half he was really focused and into it and the second half I thought he probably stayed in the locker room from a mental standpoint," Byron Scott said. In normal conditions, Utah will have a huge size edge tonight against Cleveland. Utah without Al Jefferson and with Enes Kanter/Derrick Favors having major minutes is simply dominating the boards with a 34.73% offensive rebounding rate over their last 10 games! Cleveland's interior defense is horrible and they are also only #27 in the league on defensive rebounding with 71.8%! Their rim defense is allowing 70% FG and even their post up defense is just #29 in the league while allowing 0.92 PPP! Therefore, Utah will completely dominate this game on the down low tonight! The key in here will be what Cleveland's offense will be able to do with Kyrie Irving. Utah is finally starting to use Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll and Gordan Hayward more time than the horrible regular starting backcourt formed by Marvin Williams, Randy Foye and Earl Watson. It's likely that the Jazz will make some changes on the starting lineup tonight, as Marvin, Foye and Watson were terrible at Milwaukee and they were completely benched after combining 0-15 FG! Mo Williams is also probable for tonight, so the Jazz's terrible outside shooting has one decent shooter back at least. Utah with the young backcourt players is a decent defensive unit, especially on transitions where they should really be able to limit Cleveland's offense tonight, especially with Dion Waiters once again out. If we combine this with Utah's huge frontcourt + rebounding edge in tonight's game, I believe the Jazz will pick up a decent road win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Utah Jazz (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/04: Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 707 Utah Jazz @ 708 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 197 points

Utah won't be able to use Al Jefferson once again tonight due to injury and so, Derrick Favors will start, while Enes Kanter will also play more minutes than usual. This means that while Utah loses a lot offensively without Jefferson, they gain a lot defensively, as both Favors and Kanter are much better defensive players than Jefferson. The Jazz will play at Milwaukee tonight, a team that has played six consecutive ballgames since the All Star Break. For tonight's game, there is a certainty: both teams will struggle in scoring at the rim! Milwaukee's defense is an elite defensive team on this area, while Utah without Al Jefferson and with Enes Kanter/Derrick Favors is also a good rim defense team. 

Utah will also have a clear rebounding edge tonight, as we know that Milwaukee's defensive rebounding is quite poor, so they will get pounded by Utah's excellent offensive rebounding skills. On the last game between these two teams, the Jazz grabbed 58% of the rebounds, but Milwaukee is on a back to back spot, after having played the night before at Denver on a wild game. The winner of this game will be the team that shoots better from the outside, as both teams will struggle to score on the inside tonight. Utah is a quite poor perimeter shooting team, while Milwaukee is decent with 25-68 (36.7%) 3pts over their last four games. However, the Jazz's perimeter defense has improved a lot with Alec Burks and Gordon Hayward playing more time nowadays, while the veteran backcourt players saw their share of minutes being clearly reduced. 

Considering the fact that both teams will struggle tonight in scoring easy points and they will depend from outside shots, it won't be easy for them to have good offensive games tonight. Utah lacks good outside shooters, while Milwaukee's perimeter shooting is very inconsistent. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/01: Charlotte Bobcats @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 821 Charlotte Bobcats @ 822 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 190 points

Utah won't have their starting frontcourt available for tonight, as both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are currently injured. This means that they will start Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, without any options for the frontcourt on their bench, so they will be forced to play big minutes tonight. On the backcourt, Jamaal Tinsley is now out of the rotation, so the Jazz will have their best defensive lineup playing heavy minutes tonight. It isn't even comparable how improved they will be on rim defense and defensive mobility, in comparison to their "old" lineup. This will be especially important against a team like the Bobcats tonight, who have no presence on the down low, but who have quick guards, who would be a very tough matchup for Utah, if their starting frontcourt was formed by Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, two players without the speed to defend them.  But with Kanter and Favors starting tonight, Utah will defend transition plays better, they will protect the basket basket and I would even say that their pick and roll defense will also be improved tonight. So, Charlotte's offense will have a tough day today, especially when they haven't been good lately with offensive ratings of 88.3, 101.9 and 91.0 on their last three contests!

The question is that the presence of Kanter and Favors in the starting lineup will at the same time limit their offensive efficiency. Utah's offense normally relies on Al Jefferson's and Paul Millsap's post up moves, an area where Kanter and Favors are far from having the same efficiency. Of course Utah should improve their offensive rebounding skills with this lineup, but Kanter and Favors can't create their own shot in the way to Jefferson and Millsap generally can. The Bobcats aren't a good matchup for Utah's offense. Charlotte has the worst perimeter defense in the league, with some terrible close outs on the shooters, but as we all know, Utah isn't a good jump shooting team. This gets even more problematic when their offensive skilled big men are out for tonight's contest, so I doubt that Utah will have a good floor spacing tonight, something that will allow the Bobcats to use some zone defense on them and also pack the paint on defense as well. I see this game being a low scoring affair due to Utah's lineup in tonight's game, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821/822 Under 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: Utah by 8 points

Atlanta has a major handicap for tonight's game and that is Zaza Pachulia's injury. Even if he plays tonight (he is questionable), he won't be physically at 100% and the Hawks needed him at his best to avoid getting outmuscled by Utah's powerful frontcourt. Atlanta is 3-0 since the All Star Break, but they have just grabbed 47.62%, 42.10% and 47.44% of the rebounds on these games. They will now facing a Jazz team that should be able to do a nice defensive job tonight by stopping Atlanta in transition. Utah is #11 in the league on transition defense with 1.13 PPP allowed and with their young backcourt players, they should be even better than their season average shows.

Utah had a dark period where Coach Corbin insisted in giving major minutes to veterans like Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye, two players who are slow footed and they were constantly exposed on the break because of that. Tinsley has completely lost his spot on the rotation and on their last game against the Celtics, it was Earl Watson the team's starting PG, with Tinsley getting a DNP, while Foye's minutes have been getting reduced as well, as he played only 20 minutes against Boston, even though the game went to overtime! With Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll and Gordon Hayward, Utah gains a lot of athleticism on the perimeter and they can be a great transition defensive team, something that will cause a lot of problems to Atlanta's offense, as they depend a lot from their transition plays to be productive. 

On offense, the Jazz will have a clear edge on post up plays. Atlanta's defense is mediocre against this kind of plays by being just ranked #20 in the league with 0.84 PPP allowed and they have been regressing lately with 0.93 PPP over their last 10 games! Without Zaza Pachulia or with him limited, Utah's edge on this area only gets even bigger! On the first game played between these two teams, Utah dominated until the middle of the third quarter, where they led by 75-60, just to some poor coaching decision from Utah's coach in not taking a timeout during a big Atlanta run, while allowing Randy Foye to play a team high 41 minutes, allowed the Hawks to comeback in the game and win it at the end. This time, and after a rare home loss against Boston, Utah will be fired up tonight to outplay Atlanta, who won't be able to match the same level of aggressiveness. Therefore, I expect the Jazz to pick up an easy win tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Utah Jazz (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/25: Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 705 Boston Celtics @ 706 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 186 points

This will be the third road game for Boston in four days, after playing at Phoenix and Portland. Yesterday against the Blazers, Doc Rivers actually managed well the playing time of his roster and nobody played more than 35 minutes (Avery Bradley), with 10 players being used. Of course this is still a poor spot for the Celtics, as Utah is a very powerful team, but Boston will surely try to set their usual slow pace tonight in order to try to prevail in here on half court defense. I believe Boston will offensively struggle in here. We know that they are mainly a jump shooting team and after having had decent 3pts numbers on their first three games of their road trip (7-20, 9-20 and 10-22 treys), they struggled yesterday at Portland with 2-13 3pts! The Celtics have been showing an interesting transition game, but Utah is a top 10 defensive team on this area.

Utah had once again on their last game the problem that I've been telling about Coach Corbin: he is giving too many minutes to the wrong players! Jamaal Tinsley, Randy Foye and Marvin Williams don't deserve to be starters on this team, but guess what? At LA against the Clippers, these three players shot a combined of 0-9 FG, while showing some terrible defense! Earl Watson, DeMarre Carroll or Alec Burks aren't better offensively, but their aggressiveness on the defensive end is a plus for the Jazz, who gain a much bigger physical dimension. For tonight, I have some doubts on what coach Corbin will do, but assuming he will use these young players more, Utah will be much improved on defense tonight. Of course Utah will have some edge down low against Boston's undersized frontcourt. However, Utah doesn't have a consistent outside shooting game and on their last game against the Clippers, they shot 1-15 3pts, something that will allow the Celtics to pack the paint tonight and give some extra space on the perimeter, while daring Utah's bad outside shooters to shoot the ball from the perimeter.

With the Celtics trying to dictate a half court style for this game, but with a jump shooting mindset on offense, they will struggle. On the other hand, Utah has a lot of indecision on their rotations and this made them lose some offensive flow. Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker