NBA Free Premium Play 05/21: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 San Antonio Spurs Play #1 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** I knew that Scott Brooks would try to surprise the Spurs in Game 1, but he really “tried” too much by playing some bizarre lineups especially w/ Durant @ center position! Without Ibaka, OKC is in a tough spot against this Spurs’ machine, but it was pretty clear for me that they don’t have a chance in playing small ball vs. SAS. The Spurs scored at will @ paint w/ 66 points in the paint & 24-27 FG at the rim! When Brooks decided to go “ultra small”, the Spurs’ offense simply exploded! The only bright spot for OKC in that game was in the third quarter: “That starting lineup did a good job in that third quarter,” Brooks said. “We were up one with four minutes to go. By playing with a lot of toughness on the defensive end and using our athleticism and our speed on the offensive end. That’s always a good recipe for our success, playing defensively with good hands, good toughness, the physicality that it takes to stop a very good offensive team like San Antonio.” OKC played their starting lineup for the first 9 minutes of the quarter and they held SAS’ offense to just 14 points in a 9-minutes span! IMO, this will be the blueprint for OKC tonight – they will try to win tonight via their defense and not by outscoring the Spurs. I expect OKC to play less small ball tonight as S. Adams will more than the 17 minutes logged in G1. Obviously, by playing “big”, OKC offense will be “easier” to defend as the Spurs’ defense will be almost exclusively focused in stopping Durant & Westbrook. I expect tonight’s contest to be played @ slower pace (NOTE: that 3rd quarter in G1 was the slowest paced quarter of the game, which is a good sign for this G2). I also expect Scott Brooks to ride his starting lineup a bit longer @ first & third quarter and so, I’m playing w/ Under FIRST QUARTER (once again) & UNDER FULL TIME as well. NOTE: Split the wager! Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 53.5 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 211 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 05/13: Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

LA Clippers  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 735 Los Angeles Clippers @ 736 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #3 On my write up w/ OKC+5.5 in the last game I’ve said the following: “The first 2 games of this series were basically one sided affairs but G3 was a tight contest w/ the score being 108-107 w/ just 2:32 to go! Both teams could have won the game and I really think that this will be the case for today and so, this 5-pts is just too much! I would be saying the same if the game was @ OKC and OKC was favored by 5 points!” It is pretty curious that rallied back and won G3 behind a small ball lineup w/ Kevin Durant being the Power Forward and in the last game, the reverse happened w/ LAC as they played a 3-guards lineup in the 4th quarter and they completely crushed OKC by 14 points in the final frame. For tonight’s contest, both teams will be prepared for any kind of small ball version from their opponents, so IMO, this won’t be a big factor – it’s hard to imagine CP3 once again defending Durant in crunch time! Nevertheless, we have a clear coaching edge for LAC w/ Doc Rivers vs. Scott Brooks. After having 26 assists in G3, OKC reverted to being… “OKC” w/ just 17 assists and a lot of ISO stuff in their offense. I understand that OKC dominated G3 since the start but the Clippers were missing way too many good looks early on the game! Via NBA.com/stats, OKC shot 52.6% on uncontested shots (20-38 FG) while LAC shot just 41.5% (17-41%) and still, LAC won the game! My fair line for this contest is OKC by 2/3 points and therefore, I’m taking the Clippers tonight as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Los Angeles Clippers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 04/24: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 735 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 736 Memphis Grizzlies Play #1 & #2 For the first three quarters of Game 2, the game was a low scoring affair played @ ridiculous slow pace. It was pretty clear that the Grizzlies didn’t want to allow 32 fast break points to OKC like they did in G1 and so, the tempo of the game was way slower in G2 vs. G1. Then the fourth quarter happened… MEM surprised OKC by playing some small ball lineup w/ Beno Udrih looking like MEM’s MVP as OKC defense didn’t “respect” him properly. MEM finished the quarter shooting almost 60% from the field! Note that MEM scored only 6 points in the paint in that quarter so all the damage was from the outside – bit strange because we are dealing w/ MEM!  On the other end, we had Kevin Durant making an unbelievable 3+1 play, you really need to watch that play! For this contest, I expect the tempo of the game to be more similar to G2 vs. G1 because that’s what the Grizzlies impose to their opponents. Both teams are coming from an OT in which their best players logged more +40min, so, a physical letdown late in the game could happen for both teams. MEM offense was great w/ shooting almost 50% FG but I really don’t expect them to hit +44% FG from 10-15 feet, +57% FG (!!!) from 16-23 feet (“long 2’s jumpers) and even 40% from 3pts land! I also think that OKC defense will be ready to defend MEM’s small ball version if MEM’s coach decides to use it. On the other end, despite some great defense from Tony Allen, the fact is that Kevin Durant finished the game w/ 12-28 FG, 5-12 3pts and 7-8 FT for 36 points. The entire OKC’s bench sucked pretty badly and w/ a slightly improvement from their bench, I think that OKC’s has the tools to bounce back tonight via primarily their defense and so, I’m taking both OKC & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735/736 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Houston  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 561 Houston Rockets @ 562 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #6 OKC has won the first 2 H2H’s so far in this season and actually they have been dominating HOU since James Harden was traded. However, note that in the first 2 H2H’s games, OKC was rested while HOU was playing @b2b spot in BOTH games! In the first game, James Harden and Dwight Howard combined for 17 points on 6-22 shooting, as Houston lost 117-86. In the second contest, it was that epic HOU collapse in the second half as they scored only 19 points in the entire half! What will change for tonight?! Well, first of all, OKC defense has been pretty awful lately and this isn’t a mere case of “bad effort”! They are allowing way too many wide open shots and they are doubling in the post without any kind of discipline! Because HOU has Dwight Howard in the post and Perkins is still injured, OKC will have to double Howard down low, and this will create some good looks for HOU’s shooters! Also, James Harden is usually defended by Thabo Sefolosha and guess what… Sefolosha is injured and will miss tonight’s game! Without Perkins and Thabo, HOU’s 2 best players will have some individual edge in their matchups and ultimately this will make the difference as I expect the Rockets to be extremely competitive tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 561 Houston Rockets (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/09: New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

New York  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 801 New York Knicks @ 802 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #1 OKC is coming from an unexpected loss @ORL in their last game. I had ORL+10 in that game but I really didn’t expect OKC to lose outright the game especially by being outscored 14-23 in the fourth quarter! OKC was able to shoot 50.7% FG but what really hurt them was the fact that they were clearly outrebounded (ORL had 55.8% reb/rate%) and also, ORL had more FT’s than OKC (26 vs. 19). On the other side, NYK is coming from an easy win vs. DEN in a terrific offensive performance w/ 56.5% FG and some great offensive flow. For this contest, obviously I expect OKC to be more focused than @ORL this past Friday. However, by playing small ball right now, NYK can be a tough matchup for OKC in my opinion… How long will coach S. Brooks adjust to the fact that Perkins will be useless in this contest?! Melo @PF is a tough matchup for Ibaka that doesn’t feel comfortable defending @perimeter. PG Reggie Jackson is struggling a bit lately w/ 41.7% FG & a poor 4.8/3.3 A/TO ratio in L4 games and so, R. Felton won’t be torched in this positional matchup. My fair line for this contest is OKC-6/-7 points and therefore, I’m taking the New York Knicks in here to be relatively competitive today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 New York Knicks (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 719 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 720 San Antonio Spurs Play #6 Yes I know…Kevin Durant… But OKC had only 16 assists last night of their 42 FGM’s – just 38.1% assist/rate%! According to mysynergysports, OKC had 11 Isolation plays last night and went 9-10 FG for an incredible 1.91 PPP in those plays! Durant is playing in an unbelievable level but he can’t win alone @SAS, especially w/ OKC having such tough schedule as of late: @MEM, @HOU, vs. GSW, vs. SAC, vs. POR and tonight in b2b spot @SAS. SAS has an awful record vs. top teams this season, so we can expect them to be fired up while Popovich will explore the individual matchup between Tony Parker vs. R. Jackson! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14:

Oklahoma City  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #3 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** MEM is really playing well in the last games and I’ve been riding and cashing w/ them for several times. C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely. Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season. Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games. Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts! Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games. Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM! On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM. In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist. I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

Oklahoma City  at New York

NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 New York Knicks Play #1 The Knicks are coming from a “nice” win last game @ORL in a pretty favorable matchup for them. ORL defensive scheme is focused to protect the rim while their lack of athleticism on the wings don’t allow them to be a good perimeter defensive team: they are ranked #21 defending Pick n Roll ball handler plays & 26 spot up plays. So, what happened was that the Knicks almost didn’t try to score down low against the Magic, they scored just 26 points in the paint! At the same time, 62% of their shots were from +16 feet where ORL defense struggles. Obviously, the Knicks were able to be efficient on the offense end. However, note that despite scoring 103 points, NYK had just 19 assists in 39 FGM for a subpar 48.7% assist/rate% and just 3 fast break points – no transition game or whatsoever! This might work against a bad P&R & Spot up defensive team like ORL....However against an OKC defense that in those 2 areas is ranked #4 & #3 in the league, this simply won’t work! The supreme athleticism of OKC isn’t comparable vs. ORL and so the Knicks offense without a good ball movement and lack of transition game, will be in trouble in the half court vs. OKC defense. Despite the return of Tyson Chandler, NYK defense is still bad, especially w/ their team help defense concept. Their 1*1 defense down low is actually pretty decent but when it comes to rotate and make the right defensive decisions, they are a mess. A decent aggressive guard will torch them off the dribble and you can consider Russell Westbrook as one of those “decent” guards. OKC was playing their best basketball of the season when they went @SAS and beat them with some ease (I had OKC+3 in that game) but, then in a b2b home game they completely relaxed and overlooked the Raptors, and ended up losing the game for their first home loss of the season. The loss was so bizarre especially considering that OKC was leading the game by double digits points in the 4th quarter! They finished the 4th quarter shooting 5-25 from the field – a comical 20% FG mark! Raymond Felton is OUT for today, so the Knicks have only Beno Udrih to play as natural PG. Obviously HC Mike Woodson will have to find some solutions for this position but regardless who plays the position, Russell Westbrook will just destroy the Knicks today. OKC superior bench play, superior talent and superior “motivation” will be just too much for the Knicks today. The Knicks have already on their backs some blowout losses against “lowly” teams like the Celtics or the Cavaliers, now they will face a OKC fired up team, good luck with that! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/15: Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 807 Orlando Magic @ 808 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #5 OKC is rolling right now. They are playing incredibly well in both ends of the floor, and their second unit has been spectacular, something that will be the key tonight in a potential blowout win for OKC. ORL offense is basically a jump shooting team that attempts a lot of mid range jumpers. However they have been struggling to hit those shots lately and their 17.0 assists per game mark is extremely subpar. OKC’s overall size is a huge problem for their opponents that relies their game from the outside, that’s why they are an elite defensive team in defending pick n rolls and ranked #3 in spot up plays! Orlando is using a short rotation right now. In their last game against the Cavaliers, 4 of their starters played about 40 minutes and with a game tomorrow against the struggling Bulls, I expect the Magic to “manage” this contest while OKC offense is just too much for this Magic undersized defense. OKC will win by +15 points! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 Oklahoma City Thunder (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/10: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks

Oklahoma City  at Atlanta

NBA - 511 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 512 Atlanta Hawks Play #5 Jeff Teague is the X factor for this Hawks team and when he struggles, the Hawks are automatically in trouble and that’s what I expect for them tonight against the Thunder. Teague’s dribble drive penetration is one of the biggest factors of Kyle Korver’s 3pts streak record as his ability to pass for the open man on the outside is key. However when Teague struggles and we have some examples of that: @WAS: 5-18 FG & 5/5 A/TO ratio @HOU: 0-5 FG & 6/3 A/TO ratio vs ORL: 4-11 FG & 6/4 A/TO ratio vs BOS: 3-15 FG & 10/2 A/TO ratio @MIA: 4-13 FG & 7/4 A/TO As you can guess, all those games ended up with a Hawks loss. Russell Westbrook will be a tough matchup for him tonight and OKC’s length and athleticism in protecting the rim will make tough for ATL’s sharp ball movement. ATL doesn’t have a strong interior defense so I expect OKC to have a good offensive game in attacking the rim. I also expect OKC to play some small ball w/ Durant @PF just because he can deal with Millsap on the defensive end and OKC’s small ball lineup is really great offensively Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/18: Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Denver  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 505 Denver Nuggets @ 506 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #1 It's good that Oklahoma City faced a shorthanded Milwaukee team, as they would have lost the game against the Bucks at 100%. Oklahoma City showed a clear lack of energy and they were coming from tough road games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State and so, they couldn't handle the spot very well. They struggled everywhere offensively with just 17 assists: they were poor down low and both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook couldn't even get 10 FT attempts, something that shows their clear lack of aggression during the game. Thanks to that, Milwaukee was able to keep fighting for the win, even though they had pretty much no inside game with Zaza Pachulia shooting 3-13 FG! Milwaukee managed to get some offensive production from transitions with 16 fast break points and some outside shooting via O.J. Mayo. Oklahoma City's tired starters were clearly saved by their bench, with their main five bench players (Collison, Lamb, Adams, Jackson and Fisher) having net positives of +16, +10, +10, +11 and +5, while the best of the starting five was Westbrook with a +8! Denver is coming from a clear loss at Houston, where their defense was horrible. Of course starting a frontcourt formed by J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried is a bad idea for any team that wants to have a good defensive performance, as they both struggle on protecting the basket and on their defensive positioning. However, Denver's guards weren't much better on defense. Houston's backcourt did whatever they wanted on offense, with easy pick and rolls and a kick out game that worked perfectly with Houston shooting 9-21 3pts, but also 23-30 (77%) FG near the basket! Of course Denver's offense also created some good production, as Houston's perimeter defense is very soft and so, Denver's most aggressive players had success against them: Ty Lawson with 11-19 FG and Wilson Chandler with 5-10 FG, but that wasn't enough especially because Dwight Howard had a good day at the free throw line with 17-24 FT! I believe Oklahoma City's effort tonight will be much better. They are coming back home and they will be facing a divisional rival, so I expect them to be fired up for tonight. With Denver struggling to stop the opposing guards to have big games against them, I believe that the Nuggets will heavily struggle against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, especially because Denver's Head Coach Brian Shaw will start once again Hickson and Faried in the frontcourt and they won't protect the basket at all. Also Serge Ibaka has been playing on a beast mode and he will have the edge over Faried, who is far from his best right now. Denver's offense is still quite inconsistent, as Brian Shaw is yet to find the right rotations on the team, so with their bad shooting, I expect Oklahoma City to pack the paint and defend them well. Therefore, I believe Oklahoma City will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	93.3	10
Offense	112.4	1
Defense	102.6	4
Rebound	49.9	17

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	52.7	3	eFG%	46.9	2
TO%	14.4	29	TO%	13.5	18
Reb%	26.7	15	Reb%	26.6	18
FT%	28.0	1	FT%	19.7	11

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	13-4	114.6	103.4
December	11-2	116.2	105.7
January	11-5	113.2	104.1
February	7-4	118.8	101.0
March	12-5	112.7	102.6
April	6-2	115.9	103.9

The Thunder’s 2012/13 season had a key moment even before the regular season started, with a trade that sent James Harden to Houston in exchange for Kevin Martin and some prospects for pure financial reasons, a decision that might come back to haunt Oklahoma City in the next few years, especially if Houston manages to get what the Thunder wants so much: a NBA title.

Then, naturally the Thunder’s season changed with Russell Westbrook’s injury in the playoffs against the same Rockets. Oklahoma City was eventually able to still beat Houston in the first round of the postseason and then they even defeated the Grizzlies in the Game 1 of the second round, with a tremendous clutch performance by Kevin Durant, but Memphis’s defense found a way to punish Durant and Oklahoma City lost the following four games of the series and consequently lost the series altogether.

This will be the narrative that will talk about Oklahoma City’s 2012-13 season, something that is a shame as they had an amazing regular season, where they grabbed the #1 seed on the Western Conference with an amazing 60-22 record.

The Thunder didn’t “just” win games on the regular season. They crushed their opponents by having the best point differential in the league both at home and on the road. Their average margin of victory at home was a ridiculous +13.0 ppg (!), while their MOV on the road was also a stellar +5.4 ppg!

Thanks to this domination where Oklahoma City won 44 games by 10 or more points during the regular season, Coach Scott Brooks had an “easy task” in managing the team’s effort. Both Durant and Westbrook played less minutes per game than in the previous season, while 12 players were on the court for at least 11 minutes per game.

Oklahoma City was also the best offense in the league during the regular season with a 112.4 offensive rating, with their strengths being based in two main areas:

      1) Great Shooting: #3 in the league with 52.7% eFG%

      2) Free Throw attempts: #1 in the league with 28% FT/rate%

As usual, the Thunder were also one of the worst teams in the league in taking care of the ball and this won’t change anytime soon due to the aggressive style that their best players uses on court.

Kendrick Perkins was the team’s only disappointment last season, especially when the Thunder decided to “sacrifice” James Harden over him regarding the team’s future. During the regular season, Perkins was on the court for 49% of the time and the team had constantly better numbers with him on the bench than with him on the court (+10.0 versus +8.3 according to 82games.com). His offense was almost non-existent if we exclude some pretty bizarre moments where he would commit stupid turnovers, while his defense was also problematic especially against teams that explored his lack of speed.

Miami won the title over Oklahoma City two years ago mostly due to Scott Brooks’s reluctance in playing “small ball” against the Heat, leaving Perkins on the court for too long. In theory, Perkins is serviceable against teams that feature a traditional frontcourt line like… Memphis, but the truth is that he got completely outplayed by Marc Gasol in the playoffs in both ends of the floor. Besides his 4-24 FG mark against Memphis, he ended the postseason with more personal fouls (39) than points (24), something that says a lot about his inability to help his team.

Offseason Report:

The Thunder basically didn’t make any movement to upgrade the team during the offseason, while they lost their 6th man Kevin Martin on free agency, something that says a lot about GM Sam Presti’s trust on the development of his young players.

With Kevin Martin gone, if Jeremy Lamb doesn’t develop at least into a serviceable player, then James Harden’s trade will be on Presti’s back for the rest of his career.

Ryan Gomes was the Thunder’s most “important” signing on the offseason, something that says a lot about the team’s inactivity on the market.