NBA - 723 Portland Trailblazers @ 724 Golden State Warriors
Projected line: Golden State by 12 points | 187 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
We won our Double Dime on Portland
yesterday because they had a clear physical edge over Memphis, but
today we will fade Portland especially because of the same reasons. The
Blazers are into the worst possible physical spot on the NBA this
season: 5 games in 6 days, in a back to back to back spot! Offensively,
Portland isn't a team with a lot of talent besides Aldridge and
Crawofrd, however they use to compensate that with a lot of hustle
because their main core of players are hard nosed working players, but
when these players simply don't have the legs to battle, then the team
has a no show, just like it happened at Phoenix earlier on this season.
Portland is coming from two home games where they defeated
Sacramento and Memphis by double digits points, however the team had to
work a lot in both games, especially yesterday against the Grizzlies, as
a game against Memphis is always a very physical one. The key factor
for their wins was their huge rebounds edge, as they won 59% and 53% of
the total available boards. Portland isn't a good team at finishing at
the rim with just 58% FG, despite having a high volume of 33.4% on this
particular area and from the outside, the struggles are expected, with
35% FG from 16-23 feet and 27% from 3pts on their last 5 games! The
Warriors have been an underrated defensive team near the basket and
coach Jackson wants to play with a big man down low and the Warriors are
allowing 63% FG at the rim and just 59% on their last 5 games!
Therefore, I expect Portland to struggle tonight on the offensive
end, as the physical letdown is inevitable and them being a bad jump
shooting team, I expect the Blazers to have a brick fest tonight! On the
other side, Golden State is coming from an unbelievable meltdown in the
4th quarter against Memphis! They were leading the game by 20 points in
the second half, but they lacked aggression and allowing 16 fast break
points and 17 FT to Memphis just in the final quarter of the game! But
besides those last 12 minutes of the game, the Warriors played sound
basketball in both ends of the floor! They continue to be an excellent
Spot Up team, as they are #1 in the league with 1.08 PPP and the
penetration to the basket from Monta Ellis will be problematic for the
good but tired Portland's perimeter defense. Portland is generally a
good spot up defensive team (#10), but I don't expect their close outs
to be sharp tonight due to their physical struggles and so, Golden State
will have some edge in here as well.
I expect an easy win for Golden State on this bounce back spot for
them, while Portland are likely to have a no-show on this contest.
Therefore, I will be taking the Warriors in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Considering the offensive problems the Blazers will have tonight, I came
up with a totals projection of 187 points, low enough for us to take
the under in here as well on a Single Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 724 Golden State Warriors (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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