NBA Free Premium Play 04/12: Los Angeles Clippers @ 718 New Orleans Hornets

LA Clippers  at New Orleans

NBA - 717 Los Angeles Clippers @ 718 New Orleans Hornets Projected Line: LA Clippers by 12 points The Clippers are still fighting with homecourt edge with Denver and Memphis, so I expect them to show up tonight and blowout the lowly Hornets in here. New Orleans will be without Anthony Davis and Greivis Vasquez, something that makes them even weaker than they already are. Without Vasquez, the Hornets immediately struggle on offense without their starting PG, as Brian Roberts can't lead the team's offense like Vasquez does it with his pick and rolls. Without Davis, Ryan Anderson has to be inserted on the starting lineup and so, the Hornets are left with no depth on their bench. Defensively, New Orleans is one of the worst teams in the league by showing no transition defense and no perimeter defense. The only area where the Hornets are very good is on offensive rebounding, where they try to crash the boards, but if that doesn't work, they get super exposed on defense. On the other hand, the Clippers are coming from a good win over the Lakers on a clear confidence boost for them. They know they need to win tonight and I expect them to do it quite easily. On the last game between these two teams, the Clippers were on a horrible back to back spot, after playing an overtime game at Dallas the night before, but the LA team still comfortably defeated the Hornets in that game. Greivis Vasquez got injured in the middle of that game, something that forced Brian Roberts to play 28 minutes, with the Hornets being outscored by 16 points while Roberts was on the court. Therefore, I expect the Clippers to have a double digits win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Los Angeles Clippers (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/10: New Orleans Hornets @ Sacramento Kings

NBA - 715 New Orleans Hornets @ 716 Sacramento Kings

Projected Line: Sacramento by 9 points

During this last part of the season, it's very important to try to understand the level of energy of the teams in every spot. Today, I believe the Kings will have a huge energy edge over the Hornets tonight. New Orleans will play their third game in four night, while they are also on a back to back spot, as they played last night in LA against the Lakers. The Hornets spent a lot of energy on the first two games of this road trip, as they defeated the Suns on the road, in a game where five of their players were on court for over 30 minutes, while the Hornets were also a tough opponent for the Lakers last night, as the LA team was only able to decide the game at their favor down the stretch. Both Greivis Vasquez and Eric Gordon made a huge effort last night and they are unlikely to play tonight. Gordon hasn't been playing back to back games, while Vasquez turned his ankle badly yesterday. The Hornets don't have a lot of depth on their backcourt, so they are in a terrible spot tonight while being also shorthanded.

On the other side, Sacramento will play their second last home game of the season tonight. They will have a huge edge in terms of speed of their guards tonight with Isiah Thomas and Tyreke Evans, two players that should torch the tired and shorthanded Hornets's backcourt. Sacramento struggled on their 3pts shooting over their last three games, so they lost these three games, however they have a good bounce back spot tonight, as the Hornets's awful perimeter defense is allowing 38% 3pts on their last 10 games. New Orleans had two blowout wins over Sacramento on the first two games of the season played between these two teams, with both Vasquez and Gordon dominating the Kings with a combined of 35 points + 13 assists in the first contest and 25 points + 21 assists on the second one. I expect Sacramento to get revenge tonight and have a blowout win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Sacramento Kings (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/20: Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 609 Boston Celtics @ 610 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 183 points

Boston will have Kevin Garnett back today and they have the right defense to shutdown the Hornets's offense. Boston is an elite defense on pick and rolls and spot ups, so that can really defend New Orleans's offense in the two areas that they use the most on their plays. Avery Bradley will put a lot of pressure on Greivis Vasquez and with their PG struggling, the Hornets will struggle on offense tonight. Boston's main defensive problem is on transitions, but New Orleans is super half court oriented, so they won't brings problems to Boston's defense tonight. The Hornets scored just double digits fast break points once on their last 9 games and it was 11 point at Minnesota, so the Hornets won't bring any danger to Boston tonight.

On the other hand, Boston is coming from a mega effort against Miami on their last game, with three of their players being on court for over 40 minutes. The general rule for the Celtics is them struggling on offense on the following game after a super effort, mostly due to the fact that they aren't a good offensive rebounding team, they have a low number of free throw attempts and with them shooting so much from long range, it's hard for them to be consistent when they don't have fresh legs. This is why they scored just 74 points at Charlotte last week for example. This will be a slow paced game, as the Hornets play at this style and the Celtics won't want to push up the pace after such effort against the Heat, so we have all the ingredients to have a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/18: Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 517 Golden State Warriors @ 518 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 192 points

We have a good opportunity to cash on the Under on this contest, as we have an overrated line in here. Both teams played last night and both had to travel to play tonight's game. Even though Golden State had a blowout win at Houston last night, the game was so important for the Warriors that coach Mark Johnson used Stephen Curry for 45 minutes, Klay Thompson 42 minutes, David Lee 35 minutes and even Andrew Bogut played 33 minutes! Of course Golden State will have a letdown today, especially as they are a jump shooting team. The good news for us is that New Orleans will definitely set their usual very slow pace and so, the Warriors won't have a lot of chances to score in transition. 

The Hornets are coming from a ball game at Minnesota yesterday, so Eric Gordon won't play tonight, as he doesn't play back to back games. Without him, the Hornets's backcourt has limited talent available for tonight. The first two games between these two teams were high scoring games, but played at a really slow pace. The efficiency on the offense was the key in both games, something that I really doubt it will happen today, considering the spot of both teams. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/17: New Orleans Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 877 New Orleans Hornets @ 878 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: 193 points

We have a game in here between two losing teams, as Minnesota has a 22-41 record, while New Orleans is 22-44 this season. Therefore, I don't expect any of these two teams to show a lot of defensive intensity, as they don't have anything to fight for right now. In fact, I expect no defense from the Hornets once again, who have been horrible on defense lately by averaging a defensive rating of 120 since the All Star break! The Hornets have been particularly terrible on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.98 PPP allowed, while they are also allowing 1.25 PPP on transitions! The good news for Minnesota's offense is that most of their offense is based on these two kinds of play and so, they will have an excellent spot today to have a good offensive game.

On the other hand, Minnesota is a poor rebounding team, something normal because they are playing super undersized due to the injuries of Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko. New Orleans is a great offensive rebounding team, so I expect them to dominate the Wolves tonight on this department. The Hornets's offense is a bit similar to the Wolves's offense, as they have heavy action on pick and rolls with Greivis Vasquez and Eric Gordon. Minnesota's defense wasn't good on pick and roll ball handler plays on their last five games by allowing 0.94 PPP, as Ricky Rubio is fired up to do well on offense and so, he is gambling a lot on defense. If he gets the steal, Minnesota quickly makes a fast break. But if it doesn't work, their opponents easily score against them on this kind of plays.

Minnesota showed some life on offense on their last three games with offensive ratings of 117.4, 105.5 and 111.1 and today with a good matchup against the terrible Hornets's defense, I expect Minnesota to have their fourth good offensive game in a row. I also expect New Orleans to have a better offensive game today than they had on their last game at Washington, as 3-19 3pts is too bad for them, especially with Ryan Anderson shooting 1-10 3pts! I expect a relatively high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 877/878 Over 189 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 03/15: New Orleans Hornets @ Washington Wizards

New Orleans  at Washington

NBA - 801 New Orleans Hornets @ 802 Washington Wizards Projected Line: 192 points Washington is coming from a big win against Milwaukee and the main reason for that was John Wall, who was amazing on the team's last two games. The Wizards are shooting very well from behind the arc with 43.3% 3pts since the All Star break, but they are just shooting 32% FG from 16-23 feet during the same span! Their pick and rolls are also super improved due to John Wall's great form. They have 0.74 PPP for the season, but they have improved these numbers to 0.88 PPP since the All Star break and 0.98 PPP on their last 5 games! As I've mentioned before, their outside shooting has improved, so they are better on spot up shooting, while their post up game with Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor is also quite effective. The only area where they aren't being very effective is on transitions, where they can't take advantage quite well of the high volume of transition plays that they generally have on their games. I have to say that matchup wise, Washington's offense has a good matchup on the Hornets's defense. New Orleans's transition defense is #29 in the league with 1.23 PPP and the most ridiculous is that they are regressing even more lately with 1.32 PPP on their last 5 games! John Wall will have a super speed edge over Greivis Vasquez and the Hornets's pick and roll ball handler defense hasn't been great this season by being #20 in the league, but it has become even worse since the All Star break with 1.00 PPP allowed, with 1.14 PPP allowed over their last five games! New Orleans has also the second worst 3pts defense in the league since the All Star break with 42% 3pts allowed. Washington will have an edge in everything that they generally do on their offense, so they are an amazing spot to have a big offensive game tonight. The main reason why the Hornets's transition defense has been so terrible is because they are fully focused in crashing the boards on offense. They have a ridiculously good offensive rebound rate of 31.2% since the All Star break and they basically send everybody to try to get the offensive boards, so when they are unable to get the offensive rebound, their opponent scores easy transition points against them. The Hornets's offense is mostly based on pick and rolls and they have been playing well in both pick and roll ball handlers and roll man plays. In fact, their problem hasn't been scoring. Due to John Wall's offensive explosion, he is forgetting about defense lately and with that, the Wizards are regressing a lot on their pick and roll defense. They used to be an elite team earlier on the season, but they are #13 in the league on this area for the season with 0.78 PPP allowed, while they are allowing 0.93 PPP on this kind of plays since the All Star break. Therefore, the Hornets have also a good offensive matchup in here to explore. The first game between these two teams this season was one of the contests with less points scored this season. The Hornets had Austin Rivers playing 34 minutes, while Washington used Jordan Crawford at the PG position and he shot 9-24 FG! Chris Singleton also started at the PF position and this game was really played at the time where coach Randy Wittman had no idea on what to do with the Wizards's rotations. Things are much different this time and on a game involving two lowly teams in mid-March, I don't really expect both teams to play good defense today, with both the Hornets and the Wizards taking advantage of that to have good offensive games. I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/12: New Orleans Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets

NBA - 559 New Orleans Hornets @ 560 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 180 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Brooklyn was clearly defeated at Philadelphia last night, even though they were a 7-points favorite, while allowing the Sixers to shoot 52.6% FG with 8-15 3pts and dishing 31 assists! This loss wasn't a big surprise, as even though Philadelphia is struggling, they had some considerable edges on offense against Brooklyn's defense and this is why I took the Over on yesterday's game. Thaddeus Young took advantage of the speed edge that he had over Reggie Evans and the remaining Nets's frontcourt to have 6-9 FG, 16 points and 10 rebounds. Philadelphia's guards had similar edges against the slow footed Brooklyn's guards to have great offensive numbers: Jrue Holiday had 15 points and 11 points, while Evan Turner, Damien Wilkins and Dorrell Wright also played well. Brook Lopez showed no effort on defense and that allowed Spencer Hawes to have a season high 10-15 FG, 24 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists! Bottom line, the Nets's defense was horrible last night! By the way, it's important to note that Brooklyn's offense played well and in normal conditions, 49.4% FG with their big three of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez having great offensive numbers, would have been enough for them to beat the Sixers.

Tonight the Nets will have to deal with other problems. First of all, this will be their fourth game in five days and yesterday Deron Williams played 40 minutes and Joe Johnson 37 minutes, so this isn't good news for them, as both Deron and Johnson have been playing banged up and so, this is a terrible physical spot for them. The good news for Brooklyn is that unlike Philadelphia, New Orleans is a good matchup for the Nets's defense. The Hornets lack the speed on the wings that the Sixers have, as Greivis Vasquez is oversized for his position, so he lacks the athletic ability that the most explosive PG's in the league have. We are also in front of the two slowest paced teams in the league, so Brooklyn's defense should be able to bounce back today.

The Hornets's defense has been awful lately, but they are getting the Nets with tired legs, so I expect them to be fine as well. On the last game between these two teams, I took the Under and we lost it, as the game had 198 points scored. According to my numbers, my pace projection was dead on as the game was a pure half court battle. Also note that Brooklyn didn't score a single fast break point in the game and even though the final score makes we believe that it was a fun game with a lot of points, the truth is that the score of the game was 86-82 with 2:30 to go and then, both teams scored an highly unlikely 30 points in the last 2:30 of the game! That is very unlikely to happen once again tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 559/560 Under 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/09: New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 505 New Orleans Hornets @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: Memphis by 4 points

The spot isn't great for Memphis. They played at Miami and Orlando, then returned home to face Portland, just to go back on the road to play at Cleveland last night. Marc Gasol played 40 minutes yesterday, Tayshaun Prince, Mike Conley and Tony Allen played 33 minutes each, so the Grizzlies are indeed on a tough spot tonight. Looking at the matchup, the Hornets's defense can be a tough matchup for Memphis's offense, even though they have one of the worst defenses in the league. This happens because New Orleans pack the paint on defense and give space on the perimeter to their opponents. This kind of tactics result against Memphis, as they aren't a good long range shooting team. They can have a decent game at times (11-24 3pts at Orlando), but then they can also struggle on the three following games with 4-13, 4-12 and 4-11 3pts! This is especially relevant when Zach Randolph won't play once again today and therefore, Anthony Davis will have a much easier matchup than expected tonight. With Memphis not having a super size edge on the down low tonight, this will allow both Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis to be more rested on defense, something that will allow him to play better on offense.

The Hornets's offense has in Eric Gordon a decent option, even though he has been very inconsistent this season. However, New Orleans is likely to have some edge on pick and rolls ball handler plays tonight, as the Grizzlies are just #13 in the league on this area with 0.78 PPP allowed for the season, but 0.86 PPP allowed on their last 10 games! Memphis's transition defense is also regressing a bit, so this is another area where the Hornets's offense should be able to have some success tonight.

Memphis is currently playing with a mindset similar to Miami's. It seems that they relax for most of the game, until they ignite their turbo down the stretch and win their contests. They had huge comebacks against Dallas and Portland, even though they needed big third quarters to do that, after a couple of slow starts. New Orleans has been a very good road underdog all season long with 19-10 ATS, including 11-2 ATS as mid-range underdogs (6-9.5 points). Also teams on back to back spots are 10-19 ATS this season against New Orleans. I expect the Hornets to surprisingly turn this game into a ballgame and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 New Orleans Hornets (+7,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/04: Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 703 Orlando Magic @ 704 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 192 points

Orlando had no chance yesterday against Memphis. The Grizzlies crushed them on the down low with 17-21 FG at the paint during the first half and then, Marc Gasol was used on post ups sets to pass the ball to the open guy in the perimeter, something that allowed them to shoot 11-24 3pts! Orlando's offense was very poor on the other hand. Nikola Vucevic was outplayed by the Grizzlies's frontcourt, while Coach Vaughn is making experiences already thinking about the team's future: Arron Afflalo played a bit in the PG position, in order to put Maurice Harkless, Tobias Harris and Andrew Nicholson on court at the same time. They will play tonight at New Orleans, where they are clear underdogs and looking at the way they've been playing lately, there isn't much to say about that line.

The Hornets have been playing at a really low pace lately with 87.03, 84.25, 85.08 and 84.33 on their last four games! We are talking about a pace of 87 in a game against the Kings or 85 against the Thunder, two regular fast paced teams! So, looking at a very slow pace this game will have and the current totals line, this game would require a great offensive efficiency for both teams to go Over the total posted. Taking in account, Orlando's lack of talent, especially on half court basketball, I find that very unlikely to happen on this game. I know that they had an offensive rating of 120 against Houston, but that was a fast paced game with the Rockets showing zero defensive concerns in that contest. Orlando has struggled defensively on their last three games (126.71, 131.72 and 125.66 defensive ratings), however they faced the red hot Kings, the super offense of the Rockets and Memphis last night, where Marc Gasol dominated. The Hornets don't play explosive basketball like the Kings and the Rockets nor don't have a player like Marc Gasol to give space to their shooters on the outside, so I don't expect Orlando's defense to get crushed tonight. Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 03/01: Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Hornets

Detroit  at New Orleans

NBA - 815 Detroit Pistons @ 816 New Orleans Hornets Projected Line: pk line New Orleans won't be at their best tonight, as they will be without Anthony Davis, while Jason Smith is out for the season with a shoulder injury. After a good run, the Hornets are now back at losing in a systematic fashion and the main reason for that is their poor defense! They continue being a terrible transition defensive team and their perimeter defense has been even worse as of late. They are favored by four points against the Pistons tonight, who have been at a similar or even better level than them lately. On the last game played between these two teams, New Orleans went to Detroit to beat them by 105-86, in a very weird game that was a complete no-show for the home team. We know that the Hornets are a poor pick and roll defensive team, but Detroit was so poor in that game that they shot 0-7 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 3-9 FG and 0.64 PPP on pick and roll roll man plays! Will Bynum was supposed to have a great game against the Hornets due to a huge speed edge against the Hornets's guards, but he shot 0-8 FG in that game, while Greg Monroe shot 1-7 FT! It was a complete no-show for the Pistons, who would have lost big that night against any team in the league. I believe tonight's game will have nothing to do with the game played at Detroit. I'm sure that the Pistons's guards will have a much better performance tonight. Brandon Knight returned on the team's last game at Washington and he had his best game of the season so far with 11-18 FG and 32 points, while Jose Calderon led the team's offense very well with 18 assists! Besides a clear edge on pick and rolls, Detroit's good transition offensive will enjoy the fact that the Hornets are just #27 in the league on transition defense. The Pistons scored 27 fast break points on their last game against the Wizards and I'm sure that they will have another big game on this department tonight. This combination of factors make me believe that Detroit will have a clear edge over the awful New Orleans's defense tonight. On the other hand, with Anthony Davis out of tonight's game, New Orleans will be forced to insert Ryan Anderson in the starting lineup and with that, the Hornets lose their big offensive punch coming off the bench. This has nothing to do with the Pistons's second unit that has Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey. I expect a 50/50 game in here and so, I see a lot of value on the Pistons tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Detroit Pistons (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/26: Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 507 Brooklyn Nets @ 508 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 181 points

We are in presence in here of two of the slowest paced teams in the league. Brooklyn is #30 in the league in pace factor with 87.0, while New Orleans has also an average pace factor of just 87.6! So, we can be sure that this game will be a pure half court game. New Orleans had the luck of facing Sacramento on their last game, a team that likes to play at an open style, with no defense whatsoever and that allowed the Hornets to have some nice offensive numbers. The same had happened on their previous two games against Cleveland and Dallas, but that won't surely happen tonight against Brooklyn. Tonight's matchup will be much tougher for the Hornets's offense. We know that Brooklyn's defense has been struggling this season against quick guards due to the lack of foot speed of their backcourt duo formed by Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, but New Orleans has also a slow footed backcourt, so the Nets's defense have a good matchup to have a nice performance tonight.

On the other hand, Brooklyn's offense really needs Joe Johnson to have some production on their games. Their halfcourt offense without Joe Johnson is very weak and with Brook Lopez being very inconsistent lately, Brooklyn has been struggling on offense. For tonight, we have a duel between the Lopez Brothers on the frontcourt that promises to have a lot of intensity from both players! I expect this game to be a half court contest, where the lack of speed from both backcourts won't get exposed tonight, turning this game into an ugly low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 185 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/24: Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 807 Sacramento Kings @ 808 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: New Orleans by 3 points

For this game, I believe Sacramento will be competitive tonight at New Orleans. The Hornets's transition defense has been horrible all season long and Sacramento has been having impressive numbers lately with 20 fast break points per game over their last 10 games! One of the main defensive problems of New Orleans has been the lack of speed of their backcourt. Greivis Vasquez is slow footed for his position, Austin Rivers is inexperienced, Eric Gordon is far from being explosive and so, the Hornets will be exposed by the Kings's quick guards tonight. On the Hornets's last game, they got torched by Kyrie Irving and even though Sacramento has no Irving, they have a collection of quick guards that can really hurt New Orleans's defense.

Of course Sacramento's defense has been having big problems as well, but New Orleans's offense is far from the level of offense that the Kings have been facing lately. On the last game between these two teams, I took both the Hornets and the Over in MLK Day. but the circumstances were very different. That was a back to back spot for Sacramento, who had played the night before at Charlotte and then they had to travel to New Orleans to play an 1PM EST game! Of course Sacramento had a very slow start in that game and they got down by 39-64 at halftime! But in the second half, the Kings made a great comeback mostly thanks to the poor domination from DeMarcus Cousins, who had 11-17 FG, 29 points and 13 rebounds! For today's game, Sacramento is on a much better spot and so, I expect them to be very competitive in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807 Sacramento Kings (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/22: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 813 Dallas Mavericks @ 814 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: Dallas by 6 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Dallas had a nice 4-1 home span that ended in their win against Orlando last Wednesday. Offensively, Dallas has become a powerhouse especially at home. They play on a fast tempo and they are finally avoiding turnovers, one of their main offensive problems early on the season. The Mavericks committed just 9 turnovers against the Magic and they have now recorded 12-or-fewer turnovers in each of their last five games! Their ball movement is excellent with 25.9 assists per game over their last 10 games and Coach Carlisle has created some solid rotations. On their last game, ten different players scored points and the bench was able to score 54 points on their own! The main reason for their great offensive game against Orlando was their stellar ball movement with 32 assists for just 9 turnovers!

As expected, Dallas put a lot of pressure on Orlando, as they scored 51 points in the first 15 minutes of the game, but then they scored just 4 points in the following 9 minutes! Their in-game inconsistency has been a big problem for them and also their defense has struggled as well, as a jump shooting team like Orlando on a back to back spot was able to score 44 points in the paint and attempted 22 free throws as well! The Mavericks's 15 points win doesn't show what happened on the court, as Dallas struggled throughout most of the game and they were leading by just 94-90 with six minutes to go, just to have a 14-0 run deciding the game later on.

On the other hand, New Orleans is coming from a road loss at Cleveland, where the Hornets had a decent offensive game with 48.7% FG and 7-15 3pts, but they simply couldn't stop Kyrie Irving, who torched them with 13-22 FG, 35 points and 7 assists! Cleveland's offense had the edge in four key areas: isolations, pick and roll ball handlers, spot ups and transitions. This wasn't a surprise as the Hornets's defense generally struggles in these four areas. However, New Orleans's offense also played well, especially on pick and rolls, where Cleveland's defense is very poor. The bottom line of this game was that both offenses took very well advantage of their edges over the opposing defenses, but down the stretch, Kyrie Irving solved another game for his team.

For tonight's game, I don't like New Orleans's spot at all. They will play their third game in four nights, on a home -> Cleveland -> home span! They had a physical game against Chicago at home, then they made a big effort at Cleveland on a rare National TV Game for them, where Greivis Vasquez had to play for almost 40 minutes, and they will now return home to face the Mavericks.

As I've mentioned before, New Orleans struggled against Cleveland in defending isolations, pick and roll ball handlers and transitions. On this matchup against Dallas's offense, the same thing will happen, as the Mavericks are an elite offensive team, especially on pick and roll ball handlers and transitions, where they are #8 and #4 in the league respectively. Dallas's offense has been playing very well, with a great ball movement and with a nice continuity between the starters and the second unit as well. With the Hornets's defense on a poor spot and facing a tough matchup, I expect Dallas's offense to have another great game tonight.

Regarding the matchup between the Hornets's offense and Dallas's defense, Darren Collison will have some problems against Greivis Vasquez, however the Venezuelan is coming from two games where he played heavy minutes, so this is a bad spot for him tonight. Dallas's defense has been improving on pick and roll ball handler defense, especially since Chris Kaman left the rotation. They are currently #13 in the league by allowing 0.78 PPP for the season, but they have just allowed 0.66 PPP on their last 10 games! With the Hornets's pick and roll game being well defended, they will struggle to compensate the clear edge that the Mavericks's offense will have over their defense!

In the previous game between these two teams, the Hornets went to Dallas to beat them on overtime. The key factor of this win was a monster game by Greivis Vasquez, who had 11-18 FG, 25 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists! The Hornets shot 11-20 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays for 1.04 PPP, but as I've mentioned before, Dallas's defense has improved a lot on this area, while the Mavericks are playing much better on offense than they were at the time the previous game between these two teams was played. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Mavericks tonight and so, I'll be taking them on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 813 Dallas Mavericks (PK) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/11: New Orleans Hornets @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - 709 New Orleans Hornets @ 710 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: Detroit by 8 points

I liked what I saw from Detroit on their win against San Antonio, so I didn't hesitate in taking them +7 at Milwaukee in the following day, even though they were on a back to back and on a potential letdown spot. In fact, after a nice first half, Detroit looked flat early on the third quarter, Milwaukee was up by 72-62 with a minute to go on the third quarter and for anyone who has been following the Pistons this season, they would automatically give up on the game and accept the loss. But that didn't happen this time, as Jose Calderon led the Pistons to a nice comeback and eventually won the game down the stretch!

It seems like Coach Lawrence Frank has set the rotations after the trade and the Pistons are now playing on a 8-man rotation, with everybody knowing their current role. They are now playing on a more uptempo style than before the trade, with Rodney Stuckey playing some minutes at the SF position! They have been very efficient on this style, as they have scored 22, 20, 22, 17, 15 and 17 fast break points on their last six games! The key player on this change has been Jose Calderon, who knows how to lead a team by slowing down the game if necessary or making the right passes for the open guys especially down low. Greg Monroe has been very inconsistent this season (shooting just 49.2% FG this season), but he has suddenly started posting some monster numbers by having 10-16 FG, 9-16 FG and 6-12 FG plus 10, 16 and 13 rebounds on the team's last three games!

Detroit has been improving their efficiency on pick and roll ball handler plays also thanks to Jose Calderon, while they are also crushing their opponents in transition plays! The good news for them tonight is that the Hornets's defense has been awful in defending transitions by allowing 1.22 PPP, so no wonder that their last opponents who have their mindset in scoring in transition have done exactly that against them: Denver scored 32 fast break points against them, Atlanta 25 points and even Toronto scored 16 fast break points against them yesterday! Besides this, New Orleans has also been struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense the whole season, so Detroit's offense has a great chance to have some great numbers tonight.

So, the question in here will be to know if New Orleans's offense will be at their best tonight and I don't think so. They will play their third game in four nights, while being also on a back to back spot, with all these games being played on the road. Eric Gordon is unlikely to play tonight and their best guard Greivis Vasquez is coming from two good games in a row, so it will be tough for him to play once again very well tonight, on such a poor spot and after having made a big effort on the team's last two contest. Detroit is currently playing their best basketball of the season and they have in the Hornets a favorable matchup. If we add to this New Orleans's poor spot for tonight, I can only expect Detroit to have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Detroit Pistons (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/08: New Orleans Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 811 New Orleans Hornets @ 812 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Atlanta by 8 points

Atlanta is coming from a good home win against Memphis, with Jeff Teague having an excellent performance with 22 points and 13 assists. Al Horford and Josh Smith also played very well and the Hawks as a team showing great ball movement (28 assists and 13 turnovers), while shooting 62.2% FG in the first half. Atlanta had great offensive numbers in three areas, where they have been showing more volume lately: pick and roll ball handler plays with 5-8 FG and 1.45 PPP, spot ups with 12-24 FG and 1.19 PPP and transitions with 6-14 FG and 0.86 PPP. These three kind of plays combined have been representing more than 50% of the Hawks's shots over their last 5 games and the Hornets's defense is just terrible on these three areas: #18 on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.80 PPP allowed for the season, but 0.97 PPP over their last 5games; #25 on spot ups defense with 1.01 PPP allowed; #27 on transition defense with 1.22 PPP allowed. The last times the Hornets's defense faced teams with an offensive mindset to score in transition, they allowed 32 fast break points to Denver, 20 fast break points at Houston and 25 fast break points at San Antonio. Therefore, Atlanta's offense has a big edge today.

On the other hand, New Orleans have big guys and they aren't powerful down low. Ryan Anderson is an outside shooter, Anthony Davis isn't powerful and Robin Lopez is the only one with potential to be physical down low, but he is inconsistent. The Hornets's offense has been quite inconsistent lately and Eric Gordon is the prime example of that. Also their rebounding has been quite poor lately by grabbing just a combined of 46.7% of the rebounds on their last 5 games! I don't see them having a big offensive game in here, which combined with the great offensive game I believe the Hawks will have, makes me think that Atlanta will get a very comfortable win tonight. So, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 812 Atlanta Hawks (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 02/02: Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 509 New Orleans Hornets @ 510 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Lines: 183 points | Minnesota by 6 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

New Orleans is coming from a loss at Denver last night, where they tried to beat the Nuggets at their own style and they were competitive until they had no legs and got crushed by the Nuggets at the end of the game. Denver took advantage of the Hornets's poor transition defense and put pressure on the Hornets's ball handlers to create turnovers. New Orleans ended up committing 22 turnovers and thanks to that, Denver crushed them with 32 fast break points and 13-19 FG on transition plays! New Orleans struggled on their outside game, but they compensated that with a solid inside game with 50 points in the paint!

This will be the fourth game in five days for New Orleans. To make things worse for them, all these games were on the road and always with less hours for them to recover between games, as the start time of those games were: 10:30PM EST, 9:00PM, 9:00PM and 8:00PM today! To make things even tougher for them, their last two games were in Utah and Denver (altitude), something worrying especially when the Hornets had no legs down the stretch yesterday against the Nuggets. It seems like Eric Gordon played yesterday with a sore back and even though he says that he will play tonight, I doubt that he will be 100% healthy. 

Minnesota will be also playing a back to back game, but they lost at home against the Lakers last night. They are a bit more healthy, with the return of Nikola Pekovic and Alexey Shved. They fell into a big early hole against the Lakers, but they made a nice comeback and they were just down by 4 points with 6 minutes to go, even though the Lakers then ran away with the game at the end. Minnesota had a very rare decent 3pts shooting with 10-22 3pts, but that wasn't good enough.

This will be the third game between these two teams this season. In the first two games, neither team was in back to back spots and even though both games were played on a really slow pace, the game had phenomenal offensive rates! The Hornets's defense has been crushing on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions, but Minnesota's offense struggles on these areas by being #20 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #26 on spot ups and #27 on transitions! On the other hand, the Hornets are on a super bad spot and with Nikola Pekovic back on the down low, I believe New Orleans will struggle tonight and so, I'll be taking the Wolves in here. As both teams are on poor spots (especially New Orleans), I don't see them repeating the great offensive rates they had in the previous games between these two teams, while the game pace should remain a pretty slow one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/01: New Orleans Hornets @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 817 New Orleans Hornets @ 818 Denver Nuggets

Projected Lines: Denver by 10 points | 209 points

Denver's offense has been amazing on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups, while they have also decent on cuts and transitions. New Orleans is a perfect matchup for them. They have been poor on their rim defense by allowing 67% FG on their last 10 games. But more problematic for them is the complete lack of effort on their transition defense, as they are currently #26 in the league on this kind of plays by allowing 1.21 PPP this season and 1.29 PPP on their last 10 games! Every time they face teams with a focus on their transitions, the Hornets's defense is like a highway. San Antonio scored 25 fast break points against them, Houston scored 20 and even Utah on their last game scored 15! So, Denver will have a nice edge on offense in transitions and on shooting at the rim. Also note that Greivis Vasquez doesn't have foot speed to stop Ty Lawson, so this is why the Hornets are an awful team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and with Ty Lawson having a nice month of January, this is another edge for the Nuggets's offense today.

On the other hand, New Orleans has Eric Gordon back and since that happened, their offense has improved a lot. They were very tough on spot up shooting with several good shooters and this is one of the main weaknesses of Denver's defense that is just #28 in the league in spot up shooting. However, Denver is a top team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and this might create problems to Greivis Vasquez, causing him turnovers that will result in easy transition plays for Denver. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Denver tonight on a very high scoring game, so I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Over 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 818 Denver Nuggets (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 01/29: New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 507 New Orleans Hornets @ 508 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 14 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Lakers are coming from an excellent win over Oklahoma City, where their defense was super disciplined, with Dwight Howard being dominant down low, while on their offense, the Lakers looked very patient, with a great ball movement and Kobe Bryant reading the game superbly. The Lakers ended the game with 13-23 FG on spot ups and 11-15 FG on cuts, while not only shooting 18-22 FG at the rim, as they also shot well from the perimeter with 11-18 FG from 16-23 feet (with 7 assists) and 7-17 3pts (with 6 assists)!

This new look from the LA team with much more patience and a better ball movement will be a very tough matchup for the Hornets's defense. If we think about what the Lakers are currently doing, they have their game based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and cuts. New Orleans's defense is #30, #20, #24 and #24 in the league in these four areas respectively, therefore the Lakers has a great spot to have another great offensive game. The Hornets's defensive philosophy is to pack and the paint and with Dwight Howard dominating on the down low, this will open space on the perimeter, where the Lakers will have some great open looks to shoot the ball, especially with their new good ball movement.

On the other hand, Greivis Vasquez is coming from two bad games in a row. Is he worn out? He was having a lot of volume on the team's shots and he was playing heavy minutes and it's possible that he has simply worn out right now. The Hornets has been great on offensive rebounding lately, with 32.79% on offensive rebound rate over the last 10 games! But the Lakers with Dwight Howard showing some effort are a top defensive rebounding team, so the Hornets won't have an edge on this area. I also don't believe that New Orleans will have an edge down low, so the only option for the Hornets's offense is to shoot well from the perimeter and with the Lakers having a good offensive game and with Dwight Howard dominating on the interior defense, the Hornets will feel too pressured to shoot well from the perimeter and they will collapse. I expect an easy win for the Lakers tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 508 Los Angeles Lakers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 01/27: New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 807 New Orleans Hornets @ 508 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 185 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

We already know what Memphis's defense is dominant, while at the same time their offense is too inconsistent. This is why the total lines of their games are always on the high 170's or low 180's. However, we have to take advantage of that when Memphis's offense manages to be competitive and this has been the case since Rudy Gay's trade rumors ended with their trade with Cleveland that allowed them to save money for the future. Memphis is coming from back to back games where they had offensive ratings higher than 110! The last time (and first time also) that this had happened with them this season was in early November, where Memphis manged to score 104 points to Miami, 107 points to Oklahoma City and 105 points to the NY Knicks! They are very good in forcing turnovers and then in scoring in transition (13 and 12 fast break points over their last two games) and they can really pound their opponents down low, with 60 and 62 points in the paint scored over their last two games, while shooting 24-36 (67%) FG and 23-33 (70%) FG at the rim in those games.

In these conditions, any team would struggle to Memphis's great offensive dynamic, however things will be even tougher for New Orleans's defense because of the matchup. I've already mentioned two key areas where Memphis's offense has been playing well: transitions and points near the basket. They will now face a Hornets's defense that has been terrible in those areas. New Orleans's defense is #29 against transition plays and already on their last game, we've watched how terrible they are on this area by allowing 20 fast break points to Houston. In fact, they've allowed 16, 17, 15, 25 and 20 fast break points on their last five games! Besides that, New Orleans's interior defense is very far from being an elite unit. Curiously, Anthony Davis has been impressing more on offense than on defense and on this matchup, Davis simply doesn't have the physical presence to stop Zach Randolph! New Orleans is just #20 on rim defense by allowing 65.2% FG for the season and they have been regressing with 68% FG allowed over their last 10 games and 72% FG allowed over their last five games!

On the other side, New Orleans's offense has been much better since Eric Gordon has returned. They are scoring more transition points, they are playing at a faster pace and they have also improved on pick and roll ball handler plays. They are coming from an absolute stinker against Houston, where they just couldn't shoot from the perimeter with 9-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-20 3pts! When we see someone like Ryan Anderson shooting 0-5 3pts, there wasn't really something that was working for them offensively in that game. However, I highly doubt that they will struggle so much two times in a row.

We are in front of two teams with an improved offense in comparison to the early season, but the totals line isn't reflecting that. In fact, Memphis won by 96-89 at New Orleans in the last game between these two teams and with the totals line being set at 183 points, with New Orleans playing without Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon! This won't be a super high scoring game, but no way it's going to be the poor offensive game that the totals line are saying neither. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 178 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 01/25: Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets

NBA - 811 Houston Rockets @ 812 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: Houston by 2 points

I have a strong feeling that Houston is going to be very competitive tonight. After losing at home against Denver, coach Kevin McHale had a curious attitude: 

“The Rockets braced themselves for what they were sure would be a horror show. With losses in eight of nine games and a myriad of issues to address, the day’s video session was certain to be ugly. Instead, the players loved it. It was beautiful, their favorite video review of the season. Rather than continue to “hammer” his players with what was going wrong, Kevin McHale — that new-school, kumbaya coach — broke out video of the Rockets’ offense at its best. McHale showed the fast break clicking in Chicago and the ball zipping in San Antonio. He showed sharp, hard cuts and precise spacing. The Rockets saw themselves putting up lead-the-league numbers on the road against a pair of division leaders and came away not only convinced they could do it again but also certain how to do it."

“I think it was something really smart from our coaching staff,” forward Carlos Delfino said. “We could have all looked at our mistakes, but all the video we did was watching good situations from December. Sometimes you don’t need to just hammer your head about your mistakes. You show what you did before, good stuff. You learn the game from your eyes, like, ‘OK, we can do this. We’ve been doing this.’ Now we have to translate that to the court.”

It seems clear that Houston is struggling right now. They had a super heavy schedule recently, their opponents are more used to their style and of course, regarding their last game, Denver is possibly their worst matchup in the whole league for them. Houston's offense depends a lot from having good pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions, while avoiding a high number of turnovers, in order to be competitive. Houston actually managed to have nice transition numbers against Denver with 22 fast break points and 8-12 FG on transitions, but they committed 23 turnovers and they struggled on pick and roll ball handler plays with 2-8 FG and 5 turnovers in 14 plays. The question is that Denver's defense is an elite unit in these areas, while New Orleans isn't: #22 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #29 on transition defense and #26 on opponent turnover rate. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in these three areas, so no wonder that Houston is 2-1 against the Hornets this season, while their loss was in a big choke, where they were leading 88-89, just to allow a 29-10 4th quarter run to the Hornets. However, that game was played in a back to back spot for the Rockets, who had played a huge game at LA against the Lakers in the night before and I've already mentioned in the past how the Rockets struggle in back to back spots.

New Orleans got completely torched in transitions and pick and rolls in their last game at San Antonio. Without Tim Duncan on the court, San Antonio's offense was more perimeter-based than usual and Tony Parker absolutely helped his team to torch the Hornets's poor transition defense with 25 fast break points and 12-17 FG in transitions. The Spurs also scored 66 points in the paint. Their only problem was their lack of long range shooting with 7-26 FG on spot up plays and 8-25 3pts! The Hornets's offense has been amazing on pick and rolls lately, with Greivis Vasquez in the playmaking and their transitions have also been nice. The Hornets will also some edges on offense tonight, but I don't believe they will be able to matchup Houston's great offensive spot for tonight, especially with James Harden leading the way down the stretch. I'm taking the Rockets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811 Houston Rockets (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker