Tuesday, January 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/16: Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 705 Milwaukee Bucks @ 706 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected line: Philadelphia by 12 points
On this specific matchup, Philadelphia has pretty much edges everywhere. Holiday should be able to outplay Jennings, Iguodala is a good defender and he will stop Jackson and rookie Leuer is just too skinny to hang with a powerful player like Brand. Milwaukee could have potentially an edge on the center position, with Hawes not being able to handle Bogut, however the Australian center didn't play at Dallas last Saturday due to a concussion and he hasn't been great this season. He is just shooting 43.9% FG and averaging 13.5 ppg. He is also struggling on grabbing boards, as he could get grab 4 rebounds in 35 minutes on his last game against Detroit.

Not only Philadelphia has potential edges in 3 starting positions, as their edge for this contest in terms of the bench is huge. The Sixers have a very deep rotation, full of quality, while the Bucks have barely any depth on the bench, especially with Dunleavy and Moute out due to injury. The Sixers have been playing some great defense and they are just allowing 31% eFG from 16-23 feet and 26% 3pts! The Bucks are a team that shoot a lot from the perimeter and so, they will highly struggle today. Take a look at the Bucks shot locs:

          %Rim    %Short    %Mid    %Long    %3P
MIL    26.1%    15.0%    11.5%    23.8%    23.5%

On the other side, the Sixers have been red hot on their offensive game as well, especially on their outside shooting and I expect them to keep showing a lot of efficiency on the offense, as they have so many players that can score a good bunch of points that it's hard to see them all struggle at the same time. Playing at home, on this special day, I expect the Sixers to come fired up to the court and show why they are one of the best defenses and offenses in the league. The Bucks are a very good matchup for them and so, I expect Philadelphia to carry their momentum to this game and win it on a clear blowout. I'm taking Philadelphia in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Philadelphia 76ers (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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