LA Lakers at Milwaukee
NBA - 507 Los Angeles Lakers @ 508 Milwaukee BucksProjected line: 187 points
The Bucks have been playing in a different way, especially because they have been playing faster and not being just a half court team. I thought that the Bulls would make them play at a slow pace, but Milwaukee turned the game into an up and down contest. The pace of that game according to my numbers was 93.40, when my pace range for that game was 86-90, so we can say that the play was a justiciable loss. Playing faster makes sense for the Bucks now, as Bogut will be out for a while and Milwaukee won't have a dominant interior force. They have a good core of backcourt players with Jennings, Livingston, Udrih, Dunleavy and Jackson, so it's understandable why they are pushing more the pace. Defensively, they are now more aggressive in pressuring the ball handler, however the problem with this modification is that the weak side of the defense just gets too weak and the Bulls simply crushed them on the boards with 20 offensive rebounds and 56 points in the paint to the Bucks' 42.
Milwaukee will now face the Lakers with their two 7-footer towers, so it wouldn't make any sense for the Bucks to go back to play at a slow pace tonight. The Lakers will have an incredible edge down low tonight and Milwaukee would simply be crushed if this game would turn into a classic half court game. On the other side, the Bucks have some edge in the backcourt, as their guards are clearly younger and more athletic that the Lakers guards. This game offers clearly offensive mismatches for both teams and therefore, I see value on the over.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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