NBA Premium Play 01/25: New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 711 New Orleans Hornets @ 712 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: Oklahoma City by 10 points

Oklahoma City had no problem in shutting down Detroit on their last game by shutting down the Pistons with just 79pts, 34,1% FG and 34 points in the paint! That wasn't a surprise for me as I had plays in both the Thunder and the under on that contest. Detroit had a thin backcourt for that contest, they lacked athleticism on the wings and they constantly forgot to feed their big man Monroe down low and therefore, the outcome was the expected.

But I believe the Hornets will bring a much tougher matchup to the Thunder. New Orleans may just have one win on their last 10 games, but they have been competitive in almost every game, despite playing 9 of their last 10 games against winning teams: DAL, DEN, OKC, MEM, POR, MEM, HOU, DAL and vs SAS on their last game! These two teams have already faced each other this season, with the Thunder winning at New Orleans by 10 points, however note that Oklahoma City was just winning by 1 point at half time and that with just 3min to go, they were up by just 4 points! In that game, New Orleans had a clear edge that I believe they will have again: rebounds! According to my numbers, New Orleans grabbed almost 57% of the total boards and their 14-7 edge in offensive rebounds is a clear indicator of the board domination the Hornets had in that game! The Hornets have a solid 4-man frontcourt rotation and they are #4 in the league in offensive rebounds with 1.12 PPP, while the Thunder is a mediocre team defending this area by being just #18 by allowing 1.01 PPP!

In that game, Durant had a big game with 11-17 FG 29pts 10reb, but he had as his matchup in that game the young man Al-Farouq Aminu, as Ariza was injured. This time, Ariza is healthy and he is actually playing so well that Durant won't have an easy task to score tonight, as Ariza is a good defender! I believe the Hornets will surprise a lot of people and make this game somewhat close and therefore, I will take New Orleans tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 New Orleans Hornets (+13) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes