NBA - 803 Utah Jazz @ 804 Denver Nuggets
Projected lines: 210 points | Denver by 15 points
Utah
is coming from a home game yesterday where they dominated the Nets by
exploring very well from edge on the frontcourt. They scored 64 points
in the paint (vs just 26 for the Nets) and individually, almost every
frontcourt player had a good game: Big Al 9-16 FG 20pts, Millsap 6-13 FG
18pts, Kanter 3-6 FG 7pts and Miles 6-8 FG 17pts. The Jazz also had a
huge rebound edge (48-32, 14-8 on offensive boards) and a good ball
movement (27/18 ast/to), which also helped them in having a blowout win
over the Nets. It looks like the Jazz are also developing an identity of
running wide open, as they scored 23 fast break points and shot 11-17
FG in transition player! CJ Miles confirmed exactly that by talking
about the team's desire to move the ball and speed up the game:
"That's how I want to play. Just attack mode at all times. Try to
find seams; get out and run. … I told Earl, I'm just running man; I'm
trying to find some seams."
But as much as Utah wants to play
at a quick pace and even though they have a very good frontcourt, they
played against the Nets who was coming from a back to back spot after
having at Phoenix the night before. Today, Utah will be the team on a
back to back spot and they will play at Denver, the current kings of
"get out and run"! As I've been saying, Denver is a team that creates
their game in transition plays and in attacking the rim/paint. Even
though they are basically a collection of overall average-at-best
shooters, when they are red hot from the perimeter, the points
eventually pile out and that's exactly what happened in their last two
games against New Jersey and Miami, where Denver scored 123 and 117
points! The Nuggets had their usual +20 FB points and great inside
numbers and a great perimeter shooting was added to that (11-18 and
12-25 3pts L2 games), which cause the team to score even more points
than usual.
With the current dynamic of the Nuggets, I don't believe Utah's
defense will stop the Nuggets offense. Utah is allowing more than 60% FG
at the rim and they are just 19th in the league in defending transition
plays by allowing 1.16 PPP! Denver has a superior second unit than Utah
and this game will be one of those games where it will start close with
two good offensive dynamics, but then Denver will put an extra gear and
get away in the score to get a comfortable win tonight. Therefore, I am
taking Denver tonight. Considering the quick pace this game will have
and how well both teams are playing on offense right now and how their
defenses aren't exactly top notch, I came up with a projection of 210
points, high enough for me to take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Over 206,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Denver Nuggets (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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