NBA Free Premium Play 05/13: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

Washington  at Indiana

NBA - 733 Washington Wizards @ 734 Indiana Pacers Play #1 & #2 We are dealing w/ a “different” Pacers’ team now that Roy Hibbert is playing major minutes and more importantly, he’s confident and helping the team in both ends of the floor. IND’s offense is still having some natural problems to hit their outside shots and generate good looks off good ball movement. They had the nice mark of 10-22 (45.5%) from 3pts but note that Paul George went 7-10 3pts vs. 3-12 from the rest of the team. However, the biggest impact has been made in defense & rebounding! After dominating the glass in the first 3 games of the series w/ 61%, 56.7% & 55.3% reb/rate%, the Wizards were outrebounded in the last game as IND had 52.6% reb/rate%! Also, despite scoring 44 points in the paint in G4, the Wizards went only 17-33 FG (just 51.5%!)! Hibbert’s presence down low has been huge for IND’s perimeter players… after hitting 10-16 from 3pts in G1, the Wizards are hitting 14-52 – 27% clip in L3 games! The Wizards were able to score 55 points in the first half of G4 mostly because of the “work” of their veteran 2nd unit w/ Miller, Gooden and Harrington. After Washington shot 54 percent in the first half, helped by 18 fast break points, they shot just 35 percent in the second half with zero fast break points. The problem is that the Wizards just won’t defeat the Pacers by giving big minutes to those players! WAS’s starting lineup is clearly lacking the proper confidence on the offensive end vs. IND’s elite defense. John Wall is hesitating while Nene + Gortat have been clearly outplayed by West + Hibbert! I expect the Pacers to close out the series tonight via their defensive dominance. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 733/734 Under 181.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 734 Indiana Pacers (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/07: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

Washington  at Indiana

NBA - 709 Washington Wizards @ 710 Indiana Pacers Play #1 We lost w/ the Under by 14 points in the first game of this series, but note that w/ less than a minute to go, the score was 94-84 (178 points) and then the Pacers hit 4 three pointers while the Wizards went 8 for 8 from the FT line! For tonight’s contest the biggest adjustment will be made from IND regarding Roy Hibbert: "I have to get (Hibbert) some looks to get him going some," Vogel said. "Everyone has to understand, he wasn't 0 for 11 last night, he was 0 for 2. He's the fifth option in our starting five offense." Honestly, I don’t think that Hibbert will have a big impact on the offensive end in this series, but w/ the Pacers being focused to feed him down low, I expect IND to play @ slower pace tonight. According to my numbers, the Pace factor of G1 was 94.8 – way above my expectations. The biggest problem for the Pacers in G1 (apart from letting WAS to hit 10-16 from 3pts) was their inability to get rebounds. WAS had a remarkable 61% reb/rate w/ 17 offensive boards! Drew Gooden alone had more offensive rebounds vs. entire IND team! This is where Hibbert could really make a difference because when he is out, most likely Luis Scola will get his minutes – not a good thing for IND regarding this “issue”. On the other side, IND’s offensive problems are real against a Wizards’ defense that is coming from a great defensive series vs. CHI in the first round. Note that the Pacers scored only 20 points in the paint! Because of the high scoring outcome in G1, we are getting 187 points – good enough for me to make a play w/ the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 05/05: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

Washington  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #1 I had a small lean w/ WAS in this first game of the series but I really don’t like their “spot” for tonight’s contest, especially because I expect them to be a bit “rusty” on the offensive end. WAS’s defensive game plan won’t change anything from facing the Bulls in the first round and now facing the Pacers. They will be focused in slowing down IND’s frontcourt while they did a great job in doing that vs. CHI’s frontcourt unit. The Pacers won the last 2 games vs. ATL, but note that they still struggled to hit outside shots w/ 6-20 & 3-18 from 3pts land, so we are not dealing w/ a confident shooting team right now. On the other side, the Pacers’ defense has now a more favorable matchup when compared to the Hawks. Roy Hibbert can play regular minutes as the Wizards will play w/ traditional 2 post players w/ Nene & Gortat and so, IND’s defense will improve a bit in this series. Nevertheless, note that the Pacers’ adjusted quite well in the last 2 games of the series vs. ATL as they have allowed 88 and 80 points in those 2 points. WAS had 5 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s contest…. They are a “pure” jump shooting so having so much time off could work against them tonight as well. My fair line in this contest is 180 points and so, we are getting some nice value w/ the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

Indiana  at Atlanta

NBA - 745 Indiana Pacers @ 746 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** The Pacers are really struggling in this series and today’s contest is clearly a “must win” game for them. Right now, it is more likely for the Pacers to beat the Hawks via their offense rather than their defense as absurd it might sound. Roy Hibbert is lost on the court! The Hawks’ offense w/ their big men shooting the ball from the outside is taking advantage of Hibbert’s lack of mobility. IND’s coach Vogel has decided to change IND’s PNR coverage as he lost the confidence in his team… Obviously, the Pacers are not “prepared” to change their defensive system built in years in a few days, and suddenly, the best defensive team in the league simply doesn't know what to do on the defensive end! In the last game, ATL generated plenty of good outside looks. For some reason, they couldn’t hit those shots @ first half by shooting just 2-16 3pts. However, once those shots started falling, the Hawks killed IND’s defense w/ 59 points in the second half! On the other end… coach Vogel most likely will give more minutes to Luis Scola and C.J. Watson as both players have been quite decent on the offensive end = good sign for the OVER. I expect IND to be super aggressive by attacking the rim and get a decent number of FT’s vs. undersized ATL's frontcourt! With Hibbert playing fewer minutes, the Pacers are playing a bit faster and so, my fair line for this is 190 points = proper edge for a play w/ OVER! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 745/746 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/22: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Atlanta  at Indiana

NBA - 721 Atlanta Hawks @ 722 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** The Pacers are in serious problems after losing the first game of the series as they showed once again the same bad stuff exhibited in the last 2 months. Their offense has been “streaky” all season long and being tonight’s contest a high pressure game for them, I don’t think that they will be “relaxed” and ready to perform @ high level! Note that in the first game, their perimeter actually was quite decent as they hit 9-21 from 3pts (43%!)! G. Hill, L. Stephenson, P. George, E. Turner and C. Watson combined to hit 25-54 FG – a nice 46.3% FG mark! However, their biggest problem was on the defensive end and this is something that IND is going to be focused for tonight’s game! ATL is a bad matchup for them because their “bigs” are good outside shooters but still, IND’s defense (especially their perimeter guys) did a terrible job and allowed Jeff Teague to destroy them w/ 9-19 FG + 9-10 FT’s! Note that ATL scored only 28 points in the paint & had only 13 assists!  A more focused and aggressive IND’s defense should be able to shut down ATL’s defense and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers

San Antonio  at Indiana

NBA - 733 San Antonio Spurs @ 734 Indiana Pacers Play #1 "We've done what you do," West said. "We've had team meetings. We've had players-only meetings. We've had players and the coaches (meetings). We're kind of looking for answers right now, and things don't get any easier." The Pacers are really struggling lately and they will face tonight, a Spurs’ team that is simply in another level right now. IND’s problems aren’t the usual “lack of effort or desire”. Note that despite all these late struggles, IND’s defense has been consistently great! They are playing their usual brand of excellent defensive basketball! However, the same thing can’t be said about their offense. IND just can’t get deep post positions in a consistent basis, they aren’t “screening” well and they are struggling to hit outside shots. Lowly teams have been able to hang around w/ them because they can defend decently the Pacers’ offense. On the other end, SAS can beat a franchise record tonight if they defeat the Pacers. Unlike the Pacers, we have a confident team w/ a second unit that can easily outscore their opponents’ starting lineups. In the first H2H game between these two teams, the Pacers went to SAS and beat the Spurs 111-100! They scored 111 points… Why? Well, w/ just 26 points in the paint + 26 FTM’s, the Pacers hit: 5-12 FG (42%) from 10-15 feet 11-18 FG (61%) from 16-23 feet 9-19 3pts (47.4%) That was the time when Paul George couldn’t miss mid/long range jumpers…time has changed and for tonight I expect some payback from the Spurs. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 733 San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/24: Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls

Indiana  at Chicago

NBA - 611 Indiana Pacers @ 612 Chicago Bulls ***FREE Premium Play*** These two teams have faced each other this past Friday with the Pacers winning the game 91-79. It was a classic grind out battle between two elite defenses…. It was almost impossible to score near the basket as both teams scored only 32 and 30 points in the paint while there were few transition opportunities for both teams to score. The key reason for the Pacers’ win was the fact that they were incredible efficient @ mid/long range shots (long 2’s) because they also struggled to hit 3pts pointers w/ just 2-11. Obviously, the Pacers aren’t consistent enough to hit those “long 2’s” shots and they were held to just 71 points in the next day by the Grizzlies. However, note that the Pacers despite all those offensive struggles as of late are still defending @ elite level! On the other, the Bulls struggled to score vs. PHI in the last game! I was surprised by the fact that the game was a super slow paced contest – strange if we take in account that it was against the “run and gun” 76ers’ team. For this contest, I expect the game to be another classic half court battle. Both teams are struggling to hit outside shots (Paul George is really struggling as of late) while interior defenses will make things tough for the opp. to score down. My fair line for this contest is 175/176 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 611/612 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/22: Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Indiana  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Indiana Pacers @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #2 The Pacers had finally a “good” game vs. top team yesterday as they used a 19-0 run in the third quarter to win the game. They clearly dominated the glass w/ 56.3% reb/rate% but I didn’t like the way they were able to generate points… Note that the Pacers struggled once again to hit outside shots: just 2-11 3pts! Note also that they scored only 32 points in the paint and just 7 fast break points so most of the damage was made via mid/long range shots – that is not a blueprint of success for this team. On the other side, the Grizzlies are coming from a tough loss @MIA in which they had a nice late lead of 7 points before allowing MIA to go on an 11-0 run. MEM used 10 different players in that game w/ all logging more than 10 minutes.  I honestly think that the MEM’s superior depth and chemistry w/ their second unit will be the X factor for this contest vs. a Pacers’ team that typically struggles in b2b games. I expect IND to have the same “mindset” of keep shooting long range shots but they aren’t a consistent shooting team especially in this bad physical spots. I understand that Gasol is a key player for MEM, but the Grizzlies have some nice depth on the frontcourt and w/ fresher legs, I expect them to beat the Pacers in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers

Dallas  at Indiana

NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** Well, DAL interior defense was completely dominated by Al Jefferson last night that destroyed them w/ 14-23 FG 30 pts while CHA as a team scored 60 pts in the paint and went 20-26 FG at the rim… Today won’t be easier for them as IND has a strong frontcourt unit that is coming from a pure domination vs. DEN in the last game: West 11-13 FG + Hibbert 6-12 FG + Scola 4-8 FG and even Mahimni 2-3 FG. Like I’ve said ton of times, IND’s offense is streaky and they are coming from a monster offensive game so they are confident and rested = good sign for some offensive continuity. Obviously, the X factor for this contest is related w/ DAL offense vs. IND defense… DAL was humiliated last night and DAL’s coach “rested” their key players, so we aren’t dealing with a typical “letdown” b2b spot. Having said that, DAL offense is actually a “bad matchup” for IND’s defense… IND’s defense is predicated to “force” their opponents to shoot from mid range and… well, this is what the Mavericks do & w/ some great efficiency: DAL is ranked #5 from 16-23feet + ranked #4 from 10-15feet! Somehow, I think that this matchup is similar to the one IND vs. POR…and POR covered the spread in both games because their offense was able to be efficient vs. IND defense. Despite last night’s awful game, DAL offense has been sharp and I expect them to be decent while IND’s offense will simply dominate down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/10: Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers

Denver  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Denver Nuggets @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #2 This Nuggets team without Ty Lawson isn’t the “same” team, especially on the offensive end and this will be problematic tonight vs. IND defense. Lawson didn’t play in the second half in DEN’s last game @DET and the difference was quite notorious: after scoring 61 points in the first half, DEN was “held” to just 48 points in the second half. This will be the 5th game of the season in which Lawson is OUT and in the previous 4 games, DEN had a subpar 98.2 Off. Rtg. & 91.5 points per game! It is confirmed that Foye will start @PG while Q. Miller will be the shooting guard. Without Lawson’s dribble drive penetrations, DEN offense is stagnant and easier to defend, especially when we are dealing w/ the best defensive team in the league! On the other side, IND is struggling right now on the offensive end. I’ve been telling that this IND offense is streaky, and right now they are struggling to hit their jumpers, in four of their last 6 games, they have failed to reach the 20-assists mark! Two weeks ago, DEN crushed the Pacers at home by scoring 109 points while taking advantage of the awful IND’s physical spot going for that game (b2b game after playing OT game @SAC in the previous day). Lawson was pivotal in that game - 6-11 FG, 12 pts and especially 10/1 A/TO ratio. This won’t happen tonight as IND will control the tempo via their defense while they will keep struggling a bit w/ their offense. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/09: Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic

Indiana  at Orlando

NBA - 813 Indiana Pacers @ 814 Orlando Magic Play #5 ORL is finally healthy and they are decent team with all their key players on the court. Their win vs. OKC was impressive and it was a complete team effort was they had 5 different players w/ double digit points scored and a great 25/11 A/TO ratio. They are a good defensive rebounding team and defensively, they are focused in protecting the paint – key areas when facing a team like the Pacers! Not a week ago, ORL went to IND and got spanked 79-98 by the Pacers! However note that it was a b2b game for ORL vs. a rested IND team and ORL was without the services of Jameer Nelson! IND has shoot just 42.2% FG vs. 39.8% from ORL but the superior edge in rebounding, FT’s and TO’s made the difference. For this contest, I expect ORL to be more competitive! IND is coming from a monster effort vs. POR this past Friday and they might overlook a bit ORL today as IND plays tomorrow @home vs. a DEN team that crushed them 2 weeks ago, and obviously, IND wants to avenge that loss. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 814 Orlando Magic (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA 02/03 Free Premium Play: Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers

Orlando  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Orlando Magic @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #1 I’ve won my only play of the day w/ BOS yesterday but, the reality is that ORL was quite competitive in that game even though they played without J. Nelson. Without Nelson, rookie Oladipo was the “Point Guard” and he clearly struggled in that position w/ 3-16 FG, 5 assists vs. 3 TO’s. However, ORL was competitive because their frontcourt unit was solid offensively: Vucevic 7-14 FG, Davis 6-12 FG and Harris 6-12 FG! The key factor in here is that ORL faced the poor BOS frontcourt defense unit led by Bass & Sullinger and so, It was “relatively” easy for them to produce in this area. This might change tonight vs. IND frontcourt…. Nelson is confirmed being OUT for today, so ORL will have the same ball handling problems for tonight. The problem is that I don’t expect their frontcourt to be so efficient vs. best interior defense of the league. We had one of the worst “bad beats” of the season w/ Under IND vs. BKN because the game was in pace for an “easy winner”. IND scored 97 points in that game but note that they went 37 times to the FT line because once again, they struggled to hit outside shots – just 3-15 3pts vs. BKN…1-15 vs. PHX & 5-21 vs. LAL! I expect the trend to carry on tonight while this contest won’t be fun to watch. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/01: Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers

Brooklyn  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #2 The Pacers struggled pretty badly in the first half vs. PHX in the last game by allowing 66 points! Eventually, they adjusted and bounced back in the 2nd half w/ strong 3rd quarter (allowed 11 points) but it was too late. Their biggest problem was the complete inability to defend in transition vs. PHX: they allowed 21 fast break points & 11-20 FG in transition. Obviously, we can expect them to be focused on defense tonight – IND is a strong “bounce back” team (8-1 ATS after losing one game) and at home their defense in this spot is particular nasty: they have allowed 84, 81, 82 and 66 points at home after losing one game. I don’t expect IND to have any kind of transition defense problems vs. BKN tonight. Even though, BKN plays w/ small ball, they simply don’t have the same kind of speed when compared vs. PHX. BKN is coming from a bad overall performance last night vs. OKC in which they grabbed only 17 rebounds but the good news is that the game basically ended in the first half – so Jason Kidd managed well the players’ minutes. I’ve said several times that IND offense is a bit “streaky” especially w/ their perimeter and right now they are struggling: 5-21 3pts vs. LAL & 1-15 3pts in their last game vs. PHX! After playing vs. some fast paced teams like PHX, LAL, DEN, SAC, PHX, GSW and LAC, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ IND struggling to shoot from the outside & BKN struggling to score because…well, because they will face IND defense and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 01/30: Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers

Phoenix  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #1 & #2 Well, with Indiana playing at home, rested and w/ revenge mindset going for this contest against a team that will play their final game of the current road trip & being 4th game in 5 days, I just want to say: good luck PHX! In the first h2h, PHX completely crushed the Pacers in a shootout - The 124 points were the most they allowed under coach Frank Vogel, while the Suns shot 54.2 percent -- including 11 of 16 from 3-point range -- in their second-best performance of the season. While the way the Suns defeated the Pacers was a surprise for me, I really expected the contest to be a high scoring affair and that’s why I had my GOW Triple Dime Play w/ Over 196 in that game! Going for that game, IND had defeated LAC & GSW in the 2 previous contests while showing some sharp offense. It was clear for me that they would try to beat the Suns on their own game and the outcome was simply disastrous as the best transition defensive team in the league allowed a season high 28 fast break points to PHX and the best 3pts defense in the league allowed PHX to hit 11-16 3pts! For tonight, I expect IND to change their approach as they will slow down a bit the tempo of the game and impose their superior size on the frontcourt to crush PHX’s undersized frontline. In that game, IND has shot 9-15 FG at the rim vs. 9-20 FG from 16-23feet & 5-15 3pts…it says a lot of IND’s mindset in that game, so for tonight, I expect them to “pound down”. PHX offense has been great lately (I cashed w/ OVER in their game @MIL last night) but they are a bit overrated because they have faced some favorable matchups: MIL, PHI & CLE – all poor defensive teams. Not only this is a tough physical spot for them but also Goran Dragic got injured last night and so, I don’t think he will be 100% fit for tonight’s contest. This is a statement game for IND and they will show tonight why they are the best defensive team in the league and therefore, I’m taking Indiana & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 50/501 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/16: New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers

New York  at Indiana

NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** IND is 19-1 SU at home this season and they are winning their home games by an average of 15.2 points per game! This is a primetime contest against a hated rival and they are super fresh w/ tonight’s game being only their second game in L6 days… we can expect them to be motivated and fired up for tonight and so, good luck Knicks! NYK is indeed playing well as of late… their defense has improved a bit while they are shooting better from long range. The problem is that IND has the best perimeter defense in the league! IND is allowing just 31.3% 3pts% in L10 games and with Melo playing as Small Forward, we can expect Paul George to be his matchup while IND will completely shutdown everyone else. NYK was more competitive in the playoffs vs. IND when they played @small ball but their lineup lately is featuring Melo @SF w/ Bargnani + Chandler/Martin in the frontcourt. IND offense is streaky but they are confident right now after a terrific display in their last game vs. SAC. Chandler isn’t 100% healthy so, I expect Roy Hibbert to have a nice edge down low. Note that Al Jefferson completely owned the Knicks in the Knicks’ last game vs. CHA: 14-20 FG, 7-8 FG for 35 points. IND defense will dominate the game (as usual) while offensively, I expect them to control the paint and score some easy points down low for a blowout win. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Indiana Pacers (-9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/14: Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers

Sacramento  at Indiana

NBA - 503 Sacramento Kings @ 504 Indiana Pacers Play #1 In my opinion, this is a rare opportunity in the league in which we can see the Pacers involved in a high scoring affair… IND offense has struggled a bit in the last games w/ just 97.0 Off. Rtg in L6 games. Danny Granger is now having a bigger role in the team and obviously, it will take some time for him and for the team to develop the proper chemistry. However, IMO their offensive struggles are mainly related w/ a tough schedule, as they have played 7 games in just 11 games w/ plenty of traveling: home vs. CLE; @ TOR; home vs. NO; @ CLE; home vs. TOR; @ ATL and home vs. WAS. For this contest, they enjoyed a nice 3-days off to rest and more importantly, they will face one of the worst defensive teams in the league. SAC interior defensive is simply terrible and so we can expect D. West, Roy Hibbert and L. Scola to dominate down low on the offensive end against the #25 ranked defense vs. post up plays. Obviously, the X factor for this play is related w/ the matchup IND defense vs. SAC offense… SAC offense has been spectacular in L3 games w/ Off. Rtg. = 123.2, 117.4 & 132.9 while scoring 123, 103 and 124 points. They are attacking the rim and their transition game has been good as well. I expect SAC to push the pace at every opportunity in order to score in the open court. SAC offense is now ranked #12 according to my numbers and IND defense has allowed Def. Rtg = 102.7 vs. top12 offensive teams in the league vs. pure domination against inferior level offensive competition of 94.96. It will be so easy to score against SAC, that I expect IND to be a bit “relaxed” on the defensive end while SAC has some offensive weapons and the proper “good momentum” to score at a decent pace tonight.  Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 194 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 01/10: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

Washington  at Indiana

NBA - 801 Washington Wizards @ 802 Indiana Pacers Play #4 The Pacers are 12-6 ATS as home favorites this season, and after losing one game, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS so what the hell I’m doing by going against them tonight?! Well, I think that the Wizards can be a competitive “dog” in this contest because the Pacers are in a bit of an offensive slump as of late, and their stellar defense by their own won’t be enough to crush WAS tonight. Now that Danny Granger is finally playing more minutes and being part of the Pacers offensive system… IND is struggling offensively. In L6 games, IND has a subpar avg. 97.7 Offensive Ratings and their A/TO ratio says it all about their offensive problems: 18.5 assists per game vs. 17.0 Turnovers per game. WAS has been rebounding well the ball w/ 54% rebounding/rate% L5 games, they are protecting well the paint by allowing less than 40 ppg in the paint L12 games and they even have the #7 ranked post up defense in the league. These decent numbers are important to “stop” IND’s post-centric offense. The key question for tonight’s game will be the matchup between IND defense vs. WAS offense… First of all, this incredible Pacers defense is forcing their opponents to shoot from the “worst shooting spot” long 2’s zone, and guess who is attempting more FGA’s from that spot? Yes, the Wizards! So we can say that WAS will be perfectly “OK” w/ taking these long range shots. Also, WAS’s “bigs” Gortat & Nene can shot from mid range, so IND’s best rim defense in the league won’t be tested tonight. The first h2h between these two teams ended w/ a 20-pts blowout win by the Pacers but note that WAS was coming from a tough OT game in the previous night AND ESPECIALLY, Nene Hilario & Bradley Beal didn’t play that game and both are nuclear players for the Wizards. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 Washington Wizards (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/08: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

Indiana  at Atlanta

NBA - 707 Indiana Pacers @ 708 Atlanta Hawks Play #2 IND is coming from a really tough game against the Raptors in which they had to work hard for the full 48-min. For some reason, IND is having some problems this season in b2b games, they are 1-6 ATS L7 b2b games and while their defense is almost always awesome, their offense is prone to struggle if they can’t generate good inside looks. IND is now 26-96 3pts L5 games for a subpar 27% mark so I expect the Hawks to pack the paint against them and “force” the Pacers to beat them from the outside. On the other end, the Hawks offense is having a “natural” regression now that Al Horford is gone for the season. Jeff Teague who is shooting less than 40 percent in his last four games and is 1-13 from three-point range in that span and even Kyle Korver is 6-21 from the field in the last three games. They are basically a jump shooting team and unfortunately for them, they will face the #1 ranked 3pts defensive team in the league as IND is allowing only 32.1% 3pts to their opponents. I expect an usual grind-out game from the Pacers as they will try to win the game via their stellar defense while the Hawks will take advantage of the Pacers bad physical spot. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 188.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

Cleveland  at Indiana

NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Indiana Pacers Play #2 Indiana is coming from another nice win this time against Brooklyn by 105-91. Their offense has been excellent lately with offense rates of 119.13, 114.21, 105.85 and 116.36 over their last four games. This improvement on offense is due to a better efficiency on post ups, but especially on the outside shooting where they are excellent with 39.2% 3pts over their last 10 games, the #5 best mark in the league. Looking at Cleveland's defensive ratings lately (105.06, 107.34, 124.74, 125.21, 106.08, 113.77, 118.70, 108.12, 109.48 and 103.82 on their last 10 games), it's hard not to imagine Indiana having another huge offensive game today. The Cavaliers are using a 3-guards lineup with regularity lately and on their last game against the Warriors, they used Kyrie Irving for 40 minutes, Jarrett Jack for 34 minutes and Dion Waiters for 39 minutes. Of course that with such lineup, their defense is struggling. So, the key in here will be to know how the Cavaliers's offense will play against the Pacers's elite defense. Cleveland is now playing faster due to Andrew Bynum being out of the rotation and they have been improving on offense a lot lately, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays, with Kyrie Irving showing his best basketball, while Jarrett Jack is finally waking up after a slow start of the season. Thanks to this, the Cavaliers are always #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.89 PPP! In comparison, the Nets are playing on a similar way as the Cavaliers with small guards and they had 8-15 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays against Indiana last Saturday for a nice 1.04 PPP! Therefore, I expect the Cavaliers to have a similar or even better outcome today on offense. On the last game between these two teams, Indiana won by 89-74, in a game where George Hill didn't play and Cleveland's offense was still a complete mess. Therefore, that was a game played on the early season where Indiana was winning their games via defense. Things are now different and they are on a 4-games streaks where they have scored 103 points or more. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197 @ -110 /  1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/16: Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Detroit  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Detroit Pistons @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #1 The Pistons wasted last night a great chance to upset one of the best teams in the league but they choked down the stretch and eventually they lost @OT against Portland. POR’ tired legs was quite evident as they couldn’t hit their outside shots, they ended the game w/ 7-26 3pts so the Pistons were able to build a nice lead, because their edge on the post was tremendous (as expected!). DET scored 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were from less than 9feet! With Josh Smith having a huge game on the post, the Pistons finished the game w/ nice 12-21 FG, 1.12 PPP in post up plays. Unfortunately, their key players logged major minutes: Greg Monroe, 39 Josh Smith, 46 Andre Drummond, 44 Brandon Jennings, 45 Is not going to be easy for DET to have a decent game @IND tonight and tired legs won’t be THE major factor. DET is going from having a pretty favorable matchup for their offense vs. poor interior POR defense to have to face the BEST interior defensive team in the league! We can expect a natural offensive letdown from them because w/ their inside game limited, the Pistons aren’t a good jump shooting team. However, note that the Pistons are ranked #1 post up defense in the league! David West & Roy Hibbert will have to work hard in order to have efficient offensive games. Naturally, the Pacers are going to dominate on the perimeter but they are a bit inconsistent as well. This 193-points line is a bit overrated in my opinion as we should be dealing w/ 190-points line, therefore I’m taking the Under as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker