NBA - 801 Boston Celtics @ 802 Washington Wizards
Projected line: 177 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Suddenly,
the terrible offense of Washington woke up and in their last 3 games,
they scored 106, 105 and 104 points, but note that wasn't something
unexpected for me, as I took the over in their last two games against
OKC and DEN, as I knew Washington's offense would have good offensive
numbers on those games. But I strongly believe that this won't happen
today and the Wizards will return to their scoring struggles once again!
So, why did the Wizards score so many points on their last three
games? That's the key question in here. First of all, due to the pace!
Their last 3 games were fast paced games where Washington could use the
speed of Wall to create easy points opportunities. The pace numbers of
their last three games were 91.5, 100.4 and 97.8! Washington struggles
on half court due to their stagnant offense and so, in a wide open game,
they were able to score above their season average! Second of all, they
scored on fast breaks, with 37, 23 and 18 fast break points scored by
the Wizards in those games! These were the two factors that explain why
Washington had good offensive nights in their last three games.
But will this happen today? Nope. Boston won't allow Washington to
have the kind of game they had in their last three contest. The Celtics
like to play on a slow paced half court game and they just don't allow
opponents to score fast break points (#2 in the league with just 9.6
FB/game allowed per game!). Rajon Rondo continues to be out and Avery
Bradley will start on his place. Bradley is clueless on the offensive
end, but he is an outstanding defensive player and he will give some
fits to John Wall today. Without Rondo, Boston struggles to score, as
their lack of athleticism is quite evident, with Rondo being the only
player capable of acceleration the game and score easy points for them!
By using some basketball value numbers, we see that when Rondo is on the
court, Boston's offensive rating is 105.26, but when he is out, the
rating goes to 83.49! We are talking about a 21.77 swing on the Celtics
overall offensive efficiency numbers!
Already this season, Boston is 2-0 against Washington and to see the
influence that Rondo had in those games, he had a combined of 10-18 FG
24pts 18reb and 27ast!!! Without him, the Celtics will struggle on the
offense, but they will do a good job on the defensive end against the
Wizards offense, who will return to their struggling days on this slow
paced game. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection of 177 points,
low enough for me to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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