Play #1
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
At first sight, in a “matchup” between Manning vs. Brady, automatically we “should” have take the Underdog, especially if there a line of +3 points involved…
However, I feel like there is a considerable gap of quality between these two teams, and for some reason the oddsmakers were forced to put this line on the market, even knowing that the public money would be all over New England. I was able to bet/make a play @ best possible timing w/ DEN-4 but I have the same confidence @DEN-6!
Looking for the matchups now…
Denver Broncos offense vs. New England defense:After being incapable of control the flow of the game vs. SD in the regular season, DEN did make sure that they had the majority of ball possession w/ 35:27 by establishing an almost 50/50 game plan of passing the ball (36 attempts) & rushing (34 rushing plays).
It was remarkable that DEN didn’t have a single PUNT all game vs. SD! I had a play @SD+9 but I can say without any problem that DEN should crush SD given all their dominance:
Denver Drive Summaries:Touchdown
Fumble
Touchdown
Intercepted Pass @SD4
Field Goal
Missed Field Goal
Touchdown
New England’s defense has been shorthanded all season long but especially in the last weeks and their DVOA passing defense has been notorious subpar:
+38.0% vs. HOU, +81.6% vs. CLE, +45.4% vs. MIA, -28.2% (good performance) vs. BAL & 24.7% vs. BUF – note that all these offenses are mediocre and way far from the level of DEN's offense.
The bigger problem is that NE’s rushing defense has been declining… The Patriots have allowed an 8.8% rushing DVOA since Week 9, #4 worst mark in the league ahead of only CHI, DAL and GB!
NE was able to have a good defensive performance against the Colts in the last week, but it was against a team primed for a physical letdown: IND & Andrew Luck played aggressively and w/ only one “reliable” target in T. Hilton, it was “too easy” for NE to hold IND’s offense…
I expect DEN to have a similar game plan of last’s week’s game: control the flow of the game, taking advantage of NE’s poor rush defense and make the right passing plays w/ Manning having available all his best receivers.
New England offense vs. Denver Broncos defense:Since Gronk was lost for the season that NE is more a “run oriented” team and they showed that perfectly against IND w/ 46 rushing plays & 234 rushing yds for an impressive avg. of 5.1! The problem is that DEN rushing defense is actually a pretty good unit - DEN finished the regular season ranked #9 w/ -14.4% DVOA against the run. Then, they held the #12 rushing offense SD to a phenomenal -31.2% in the last game
Obviously, DEN pass defense is their weakest link and things get worst w/ the injury of Chris Harris in the last week. However, will NE change their entire dynamic just to punish DEN’s bad passing defense?!? If yes, we should be fine b/c Brady doesn’t have the same core of receivers that Manning has and more importantly, NE won’t be able to control the flow of the game like they would w/ a running mindset.
In both potential scenarios, I think that DEN has the edge in this department while offensively; DEN offense is just too much for the banged up Patriots.
I won’t talk much about the h2h played @reg. season b/c: 1) it was an awful day to play football w/ an incredible wind; 2) DEN’s top receiver Julius Thomas didn't play the game; 3) R. Gronkowski was a key player w/ 90 yds & 1 TD…all these big factors won’t happen in this contest.
I’m taking Denver in here as my NFL Triple Dime Play!
