Tuesday, January 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/16: Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 703 Chicago Bulls @ 704 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 181 points
This is a mega revenge game for the Grizzlies, after being humiliated at Chicago earlier in the season by 64-108, in a game where they lost Zach Randolph due to injury and where Mike Conley Jr didn't even play. Chicago is coming from 3 wins where they held their opponents (WAS, @BOS, TOR) to 64, 79 and 64 points. However, Memphis is a different team from these three, as they bring aggressiveness and quickness to the court. Boston is just too slow, while Toronto and Washington were on tough back to back spots, so their offenses were easily stopped by the Bulls defense. But I don't expect the Bulls defense to have such dominance on this contest, as they will struggle a bit with the speed of the Grizzlies, as shown by the fact that they are just 15th in defending transition plays by allowing 1.14 PPP. On the other side, Chicago is also a team that loves to score fast break points when they have the opportunity. So, I expect this game to have a good number of fast break points scored, with a good volume of transition plays.

I don't believe we can take any conclusion from the first game of this series. Conley was out and the rookie Pargo had to defend Rose and that was obviously a disaster. With Randolph out due to injury, the Grizzlies simply gave up on the game after they started to trail big on the score. I don't believe this will happen once again, as Memphis has now Conley back and they have adjusted their offense to the absence of Randolph as well. However, Speights is now starting in the position of ZBO and he isn't a great defender, so Boozer will surely have an edge over him.

Chicago is a team that can play at two different kind of paces. They can run against fast paced teams like GSW (91.28 pace), SAC (93.80) or MIN (93.27) or play slow against slow paced teams. Without Randolph, I'm sure Memphis will try to set a quick pace on this game, as they have no chance on a slow paced game against the very physical frontcourt of the Bulls. The first game of the series had a pace of 90.68 and I expect something similar for this game. I believe this game will have some fast break points and both teams will use their offensive advantage in the execution of their transitions plays to score points today. I think the totals line for this game isn't taking in considering all these offensive edges for both teams and so, I'll take the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 177 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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