Saturday, January 14, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/13: Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 813 Portland Trail Blazers @ 814 San Antonio Spurs

***TOP PLAY***

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 199 points
In order to be efficient, this team of Portland really needs to not have tired legs. They aren't good shooters, so they need to score in transition, on offensive rebounds or by attacking the rim. When they are tired with no legs, they have no chance. Just look at their games at Phoenix and at home against Orlando! The Blazers had a tough game against the Clippers in the previous day and they've paid the price in the following day against Orlando, however note that the Magic defense is built to exactly stop the Blazers offense, as they are the 3rd best defense in points allowed in the paint with 34.5 ppg and the 4th best defense in preventing fast break points with 9.7 ppg! But now against the Spurs, they'll have a much easier job, as San Antonio is just 26th in points allowed the paint with 42.2 ppg and 25th in preventing fast break points with 15.6 ppg allowed!

Therefore, it seems quite certain that Portland will have a good offensive game tonight. And how about the Spurs offense? Well, I believe they will also perform very well offensively tonight, as they have an excellent ball movement and a great 2nd unit in terms of creating offense. The Spurs are 1st in the league on Spot Up plays with 1.12 PPP and even though Portland is a good perimeter defense, the Spurs offense is such at a high level that not even the Blazers good outside defense will be good enough to handle them. Just like in the other games this season, I expect Portland to push up the pace tonight to explore their edge in athleticism over San Antonio! The Blazers are a super bad matchup for the Spurs, as LaMarcus Aldridge will have a clear edge over the Spurs frontline, while at the same time Portland's wing guys will be able to hang on offensively with the Spurs wing players! I expect a very good game offensively by both teams tonight and so, I came up with a projection line of 199 points, high enough for me to take the over in here on a Double Dime Play!

I'm also taking Portland tonight, as I believe they can use their athleticism to outplay the Spurs, with their transition plays and high levels of aggressiveness in attacking the basket.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on
 5Dimes
Pick: 1 unit on 813 Portland Trailblazers ML @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 813 Portland Trailblazers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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