NBA - 815 Milwaukee Bucks @ 816 Dallas Mavericks
***TOP PLAY***
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: Dallas by 3 points | 187 points
Milwaukee
is 0-6 on the road and since then, they are an underpriced team for
their 7th road game of the season today. The truth is that they were
competitive in all their road games expect their last one, where they
were playing their final game of a road trip on a back to back spot.
Also their last 4 road games were played without Andrew Bogut! With the
Australian player back on the court, things changed quickly and the team
is now playing solid basket with two wins on their last two games
against San Antonio and Detroit! On these games, their inside-out game
was perfect, as Milwaukee shot 20-28 FG and 17-24 FG at the rim, while
at the last time they shot very well from the outside. Rookie Jon Leuer
is now on the starting lineup and he has been playing really well, with
6-9 FG 15pts 6reb and 5 ast against Detroit! For a team that was a
really poor offensive team, Milwaukee has dished 23, 31 and 25 assists
on their last 3 games!
The only aspect that concerns me is the fact that all their starters
played over 31 minutes yesterday. If today's game was against an
athletic team like Denver or Portland, I wouldn't even dare to take the
Bucks. However, their game is against Dallas, a slow footed team who
plays on a super slow pace! The Mavericks are coming from back to back
wins on the road against Detroit and Boston, two jump shooting teams and
that has helped the Mavs defense (just 13-17 FG and 13-22 FG at the
rim!), while Milwaukee will be much more focused in attacking the rim
and consequently causing more problems to Dallas. The Mavs will have
some edge with Dirk Nowitzki, however nothing transcendental I believe.
On the other side, Milwaukee has been one of the best teams in executing
Isolation plays (#2) with 0.91 PPP, while Dallas is the 4th worst team
in the league in defending this kind of plays by allowing 0.90 PPP, so
there's an edge for the Bucks on this area.
With Milwaukee clearly improving their level of basketball since
Bogut's comeback to the team, I believe they will be able to make this
game a really close one and that's why I'll be taking the Bucks tonight.
I'll also be taking them to be at the lead at Half Time, as I believe
they will start the game at a very high level, considering they are very
confident right now and they pose a very tough matchup to Dallas, who
may only get the upperhand on this game down the stretch by using their
experienced and the clutch basketball of both Dirk and Terry. With
Milwaukee's much improved offense and Dallas having some edge with Dirk
Nowitzki tonight on his specific matchup, I came up with a totals
projection of 187 points, high enough for me to take the over in here as
well.
Pick: 3 units on 815 Milwaukee Bucks (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 1 units on 815 Milwaukee Bucks ML FIRST HALF @ +220 / 3.20 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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