Saturday, January 14, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/13: Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 809 Sacramento Kings @ 810 Houston Rockets

***TOP PLAY***

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 209 points
Since Keith Smart is the new Kings head coach, Sacramento has been playing on a high tempo and in every game they have been playing on a very quick pace up and down the court. Obviously, the reason why their games have still been having few points is because of the low offensive efficiency, as a Kings game nowadays with the offrates of the league average right now would easily finish with more than 200 points scored! For this game, I expect Sacramento to finally have a good offensive game! DeMarcus Cousins has been a beast with the team's new coach! In their last game at Toronto, he had a huge game with 6-11 FG 21pts and 19reb! The good news for him is that he will face tonight one of the worst interior defense team in the league! Houston is currently allowing 71% FG at the rim and with their opponents shooting 30.4% of their shots at this area of the court! Sacramento is currently trying 32% of their shots at the rim, but they have been making just 59% of those shots! So, the Kings will have a great opportunity tonight to improve these numbers!

On the other side, Houston doesn't shoot a lot close to the rim, as they have a more perimeter oriented team, but they still attempt 23,5% of their shots on this area of the court with a super high efficiency of 72% FG! In terms of the perimeter game, both teams love to score in transition. Houston is #9 in the league in fast break points per game with 15.3 ppg, while Sacramento is #11 with 13.8 ppg! The Kings continue having some problems on the outside (7-24 3pts on their last game @TOR), but with a great matchup for them on the inside tonight against Houston, we will likely see the Kings with more space on the outside and consequently also shooting better from the perimeter. As for Houston, they are coming from two low scoring games, but they have been a very efficient offensive team this season and they had 1 day off to rest before this contest. Sacramento is one of the worst defenses in the league and against offenses with good ball movement like the Rockets, they have huge problems.

I expect both teams to have a good offensive game, while playing on a very quick tempo tonight. Sacramento will use their edge close to the rim to pound the Rockets with a super in-form Cousins, while the Rockets will use their highly efficient and well-balanced offense to also pound the poor overall defense of the Kings. I came up with a projection line of 209 points for this contest and so, looking at the clearly lower totals line that we've been currently offered, I'll take the over in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on
5Dimes

No comments:

Post a Comment