Friday, January 13, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/12: Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 503 Detroit Pistons @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected line: 181 points
Milwaukee is coming from an excellent offensive game against San Antonio, where they shot 20-28 FG at the rim! A complete massacre over the poor rim defense of the Spurs! The Bucks also did quite well from the perimeter, with the highlight being Captain Jack! Milwaukee also dished 31 assists, a clear sign of good ball movement! The presence of Bogut highly improved the team's offense, making it super well balanced! In fact, the team has been committed in shooting really near the basket. In their last four games, they shot 18-21 FG, 16-28 FG, 17-25 FG and 20-28 FG at the rim! The problem for them has really been the outside shooting, however Bogut's comeback gave more floor spacing to Milwaukee. Detroit's interior defense is really bad by allowing 65% FG at the rim and 51% FG from 3-9 feet!

On the other side, Detroit's offense has just Monroe working down low and they have been having problems on shooting in the perimeter. However, Milwaukee's perimeter defense isn't at the same level from last year by allowing 43% FG from 16-23 feet! I expect Detroit to be more focused in attacking the basket and stop settling for jump shots exclusively:

"Right now, we're confused on both ends and we're settling for jump shots," Pistons forward Tayshaun Prince told the Detroit Free Press

Even though this won't be a super offensive game, Milwaukee's offense is definately working very well right and they will pound a very weak Detroit defense. On the other side, we can also expect the Pistons to have a decent offensive game for their standards by trying to attack the basket more and take advantage of the fact that the Bucks defense isn't at the same level they presented last season. Therefore, I came up with a projection line of 181 points for this contest, good enough for me to take the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 177,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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