Friday, January 13, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/12: New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 505 New York Knicks @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 195 points | Memphis by 8 points
The Knicks played yesterday against Philadelphia and the Sixers had no legs whatsoever and played their worst game of the season so far. Today, I expect something similar to happen to the Knicks. Philadelphia managed to play good defense, but they have no flow offensively and missed a lot of easy shots! The lack of ball movement was evident when the team shot 8-23 FG on ISO plays! They also shot just 5-14 FG on P&R Ball Handler, another sign of poor ball movement. As a consequence of that, the Sixers were completely perimeter oriented: 8-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-15 in 3pts! On the other end, the Knicks made a huge effort and as a consequence of that, they were dead tired at the end, with the Sixers not allowing the Knicks a single field goal in the last 9 minutes of the game! All the Knicks starters played for more than 35 minutes, so that's another red flag for them today.

The team from New York had a very poor ball movement with 13 assists and 24 turnovers, which originated 21 points off turnovers in favor of Philadelphia! The Knicks shot just 8-17 FG on Isolation plays and 9-27 FG on Spot-ups! The good defense of Philadelphia also forced them to be a perimeter oriented team and the result of that was a shooting night of 6-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-22 in 3pts! With his lack of any kind of decent ball movement, the Knicks are extremely turnover prone and Memphis is known for being able to force a lot of turnovers to their opponents! The Grizzlies are also the 4th best defensive team on ISO plays by allowing 0.65 PPP and the defensive pressure of Memphis on Fields, Shumpert and Douglas will be evident and therefore, I expect a big struggle for the Knicks in terms of turnovers tonight!

Memphis may be 0-3 on their last 3 games, but all three games were ballgames, they simply had problems down the stretch. The Knicks defense is just 21st on transition plays by allowing 1.19 PPP and they are also the 6th worst team in defending the rim, so Memphis' offense will have good chances to have a great game over a tired team of the Knicks. This is definitely a much better spot for Memphis and they also seem to have in the Knicks a good matchup for them. Therefore, I'll be taking the Grizzlies to have a big win tonight.
I have a totals projection for this game of 195 points and the line was set at 193/194 during the afternoon, but as there has been a line movement that has sent the totals line into 191,5 I'll be taking the over in this game as well, as we now have enough value to take the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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