NBA - 715 New Jersey Nets @ 716 Denver Nuggets
Projected lines: 204 points | Denver by 15 points
Denver
is coming from a home loss against the Hornets, where they scored just
81 points, after having scored 117 points at San Antonio in their
previous game. So, why just 81 points? Well, Denver shot just 9-19 FG at
the rim! We are talking about the best team in the league on this area!
They also scored just 15 fast break points and as soon as they began to
trail in the game, they entered desperation mode by shooting 3pts,
where they could only shot 8-23 3pts! The pace of the game was also
clearly the slowest of the season for Denver (85!), so basically the
Nuggets played in the same style as the Hornets and they were completely
shutdown! More than that, it looked like a team that - for the very
first time this season - ran out of gas. It seemed like this team put
forth a tremendous amount of effort in the San Antonio game and had
nothing left for New Orleans!
However, tonight they will return to the basics for sure and the
Nets offers a good matchup for them: NJN is the 2nd worst transition
defense in the league by allowing 1.29 PPP and they aren't also a good
interior defense as they allow 63% at the rim and 41% FG from 3-9 feet!
That's understandable as Lopez continues to be out and the Nets have no
depth on the frontcourt! Deron will have a good matchup vs Lawson and
Miller, so we can expect a good game for the Nets' PG. Even with all
their problems, New Jersey is an excellent offensive rebound team (#9
with 1.10 PPP), while Denver is quite lazy on this aspect (#29 with 1.35
PPP). New Jersey seems to be playing clearly better lately and with no
back to back games and with Deron being better at playmaking (14 assists
in the last game vs ATL), I expect the Nets to perform better on
offense tonight, also thanks to an improved 3pts shooting with Morrow
and Brooks.
But even with these improvements, the Nets are still a quite
permeable team on defense and against a fired up team like Denver, they
will be crushed, especially on the matchup between the 2nd units, where
Denver has a huge mismatch. Therefore, I'll be taking Denver tonight,
considering their great spot for tonight and clear mismatches on this
matchup. However, I expect the Nets to have a decent offensive game as
well and so, I came up with a projected totals line of 204 points, high
enough for us to take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Denver Nuggets (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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