NBA Premium Play 03/24: Charlotte Bobcats @ Miami Heat

NBA - 703 Charlotte Bobcats @ 704 Miami Heat

Projected Line: Miami by 21 points

We have Miami in here on a much better spot than the ones they've been having lately. They played a brutal game at Boston, then another brutal game at Cleveland, just to comeback home to face the lowly Pistons on a poor spot. This time, they had 1 day off to rest and this is a home-home spot for them, so the Heat should be much fresher physically than they were in their previous games. The only way teams have been competitive against Miami has been by dominating them on the boards, where the Heat have been struggling by grabbing just 42.54%, 28.45%, 56.76%, 44.74% and 36.91% of the boards on their last five games. The only game where they won the boards battle was at Boston, on the only game where the Heat actually faced a tough opponent and where they took advantage of the Celtics's undersized lineup to outrebound them. Even though they had an excuse due to a poor spot, Miami was ridiculous on rebounding against Detroit by getting outrebounded by 4-18 on the offensive glass by Detroit, while Greg Monroe had a huge game with 10-19 FG, 23 points, 15 rebounds and 6 assists. This won't happen today against Charlotte, as the Bobcats are a poor offensive rebounding team with just a 24.12% offensive rebound rate since the All Star break. Besides that, Charlotte lacks any skilled big man who can pound Miami down low like Greg Monroe did it last Friday night.

So, it will be up to Charlotte's guards to do any kind of damage to keep their team remotely competitive tonight. However, the Bobcats played a ballgame at home against Detroit, where Kemba Walker made a big effort with 10-20 FG in 37 minutes. Therefore, it will be tough to ask for the Bobcats's guards to have a big game tonight, especially when they depend a lot from their pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions to be effective and Miami's defense is #3 in the league in both areas! As Miami knows that they won't need to be worrying with Charlotte's frontcourt that lacks any kind of offensive skills, the Heat will put a lot of pressure on the ball handlers, something that will force a lot of turnovers that will result in easy transition dunks for Miami.

On the other side, there isn't a lot to be talked about the matchup between Miami's offense and Charlotte's defense. The Bobcats are horrible in defending corner treys and they can easily be caught out of the position if they face teams will good ball movement and so, Shane Battier and Ray Allen will have several opportunities tonight to hit their usual corner treys. Chris Bosh is coming from a poor game against Detroit, where he had no legs to play well and ended the game with 1-7 FG! He will certainly be fired up tonight to have a personal bounce back game. Charlotte was actually competitive on the last game between these two teams, however Miami was in one of their worst spots of the season, as they had played in Toronto the day before and they decided to stay in Canada to watch the Superbowl that night. They only cameback home already in the day of their game against the Bobcats, so they weren't really ready to play that game. The result of that was Miami having a terrible shooting game with 1-12 3pts and even 16-24 (66.7%) FT! Today things are exactly the opposite, with Miami being rested and Charlotte being on a back to back spot. Therefore, I expect a massive blowout win for the Heat today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Miami Heat (-17) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/23: Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 505 Philadelphia 76ers @ 506 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: Philadelphia by 14 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Philadelphia 76ers (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/14: Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 705 Boston Celtics @ 706 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: Boston by 12 points

Boston overlooked the Raptors yesterday and they paid the price of that. They were easily leading the game, as Toronto shot 18,2% FG in the first quarter, with Boston getting a 7pts lead in the quarter. Then, the Celtics rested their starters in the second quarter and even though they added some points to their lead, when the starters returned to the court in the third quarter, they got cold and Boston got outscored by 27-11 in the third quarter to turn the game around. Toronto eventually led the game by 15 points and that was too much for Boston to come back from.

Naturally, today's spot isn't good for the Celtics, but I believe they will now take the Nets seriously on this bounce back spot for them. The truth is that New Jersey is a great matchup for Boston. They are playing undersized with Humphries playing major minutes as center and in their last two games against Philadelphia, the Nets were completely outrebounded in both games. As they have no interior threat, all their offensive game is based on their perimeter, as shown yesterday in Philadelphia, where they shot 9-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-16 3pts! Boston is an excellent defensive team and they won't have problems in shutting down the Nets offense today.

On the other side, New Jersey with no interior presence will heavily struggle to stop the cuts from Bradley and Garnett's jumpers when he goes to the outside. The Nets are coming from a big win yesterday and on this letdown spot for them, I expect them to get crushed today by the fired up Celtics. Therefore, I'll be taking Boston today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Boston Celtics (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/13: New Jersey Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 507 New Jersey Nets @ 508 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected line: 182 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/10: Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 707 Philadelphia 76ers @ 708 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: Philadelphia by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Philadelphia is in a major slump in both ends of the floor. Defensively, their biggest problem has to go with stopping the opposing frontcourt, as since Hawes came back, they have struggled to stop big players: Bargnani shot 8-15 FG 5-5 FT, Howard had 20 pts 22reb and 6 ast, while in the last game, Garnett shot 8-11 FG in 28 minutes and Bass 8-10 FG in 33 minutes. In their last 10 games, Philadelphia's rim defense allowed their opponents to shoot 70% FG and 71% FG in their last 5 games, while they were averaging just 64% FG for the whole season. 

Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Nets don't offer danger in the frontcourt, as they are shooting just 57% FG at the rim this season and 60% FG in their last 10 games. New Jersey is playing with Shelden Williams and Kris Humphries who has no legs anymore after a breakthrough season. The potential danger of the Nets offensively comes from the perimeter and in here, the Sixers are an excellent defensive team. Note that both Wallace and Green will be out for today's game and both have been playing very well lately. The Nets will be playing with Deron-Brooks-Morrow/J.Williams-Kris-Shelden and in their last two games, they were able to do damage in transitions with 11-18 FG and 5-8 FG, but the Sixers is an excellent transition defensive team and in defending cuts as well, so they will completely stop the Nets offense, besides having Holliday and also Iggy if necessary to guard Deron.

With the Sixers stopping the Nets offense and having a huge bench edge plus a super bounce back spot, I believe Philadelphia will have a very easy win today and therefore, I'll take them in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 707 Philadelphia 76ers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/04: New Jersey Nets @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 721 New Jersey Nets @ 722 Portland Trailblazers

Projected line: 199 points

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/28: Indiana Pacers @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 509 Indiana Pacers @ 510 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: 199 points

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/23: New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 861 New Jersey Nets @ 862 Atlanta Hawks

Projected line: 191 points

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 861/862 Over 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/14: Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 603 Toronto Raptors @ 604 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: 191 points | Toronto by 2 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603/604 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Toronto Raptors ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/10: Houston Rockets @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 509 Houston Rockets @ 510 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: 187 points | Houston by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Nets are coming from a win on the road last night against the Bobcats, but where Deron Williams left the game in the second quarter with a sore right calf and the lack of a creator was blatantly evident on the Nets offense. They didn’t get many open looks without their best scorer and passer on the floor. As a result, the Nets ran a fair amount of isolation plays and dished just 17 assists against the lowly Bobcats. They shot 4-10 FG on ISO plays and 4-17 FG on spot ups! Note that the Nets second best player Humphries played 45 minutes, so he should be exhausted for tonight's game against the Rockets, especially when this will be the 4th game in 5 nights for the Nets. Their lack of continuity on offense is evident, as after an 18-2 run gave the Nets an 12-point lead midway through the first quarter, they led by 11 midway through the second, but scored just six points over the last 6:39 of the period and led by just four at the half! The Bobcats took the lead early in the third quarter, but a 13-0 Nets run spanning the third and fourth quarters put them back up nine, and they held on for their third win of the season! 

New Jersey is 1-5 ATS as a home dog on back to back games and this is really a terrible spot for them. On the other hand, Houston is 0-5 on their last 5 games and after a good effort on OT losses against the Clippers and in Boston, they couldn't handle the bad spot and lost at Toronto by 98-116! Lowry is out for tonight, so Dragic will start and he has been by far the best player of the Rockets in their last game. His impact on offense is quite evident with a +5.52 trade off value in/off court. The Rockets are on a bounce back spot and they will clearly have a bounce back spot for sure over the tired Nets who will be playing without Deron. Therefore, it won't be hard for the Rockets to have a good defensive game today, while exploring the poor defense of the Nets. So, I expect an easy for Houston tonight and I'll take them in here in a Double Dime Play! As I expect the Nets to be completely shutdown on offense tonight, I'll be also taking the Under in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509 Houston Rockets (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/09: New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats

NBA - 801 New Jersey Nets @ 802 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected line: Charlotte by 2 points

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Charlotte Bobcats (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/28: New Jersey Nets @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 713 New Jersey Nets @ 714 Dallas Mavericks

Projected line: 191 Points

NOTE: no detailed write ups for tonight 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 187.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/20: New Jersey Nets @ New York Knicks

NBA - 503 New Jersey Nets @ 504 New York Knicks

Projected lines: 200 points | NY Knicks by 12 points

The Knicks are coming from an excellent win over Dallas yesterday, who had a super studied defense. The Mavs knew exactly what they had to do against Lin with traps and with Marion on him. However, Lin showed once again that he is an excellent player and was the highlight of the game! The Knicks did very well on transition with 16 fast break points and 10-13 FG with 1.44 PPP! Against one of the best rim defenses in the league, the Knicks shot 18-23 FG at the rim! Their only problem was the lack of efficiency on the spot up plays, with just 10-31 FG and 0.76 PPP! Besides that, they were highly efficient on their offense! Defensively, they struggled in defending Dirk as expected. They also showed a bad transition defense, as the Mavs shot 8-14 FG on transition plays with 1.29 PPP! D'Antoni used a short rotation, with just 8 players and Lin was on court 46 minutes. But besides him, nobody else played more than 35 minutes. This is a back to back game for the Knicks, but yesterday was an early game and this is a home-home game, their spot isn't that bad.

On the other side, the Nets are coming from a home against the Bucks in an ugly game. This game was bound to be a letdown for New Jersey, as they were coming from a big win at Chicago in the previous day, with their players being on court for big minutes. To make things worse, Avery Johnson inserted Brook Lopez in the starting lineup and the offensive flow of the Nets was horrible! New Jersey needed to play more to the post and Lopez "helped" the team with 0-5 FG on post up plays! As a team, New Jersey shot 14-29 FG at the rim and so, it's clear that their offense was a mess yesterday. New Jersey played big minutes with a 3-guards rotation with Deron+Brooks+Morrow and this didn't go very well, as they shot 5-23 FG! Their flow was so bad that even in transition, they shot 5-14 FG! Also note that they went 0-6 FG via offensive rebounds, a complete mess offensively! However, Lopez is out and so, the Nets will focus in what they do best: outside jumpers with a 3-guards rotation! This won't be a good spot for them, but they will be highly motivated to play well against their main rivals in the middle of Lin-sanity! So, the Nets will try to shoot a lot of treys and use their transition game via speed. The problem for them is that the athleticism of the Knicks can become a problem for them, especially via rebounds and the offensive skills of Amare!

The Knicks are playing very well on offense right now, they will have Melo back and he will have a very easy matchup against an undersized Nets guard. In the last game of the series, the Knicks won with Lin having a huge game coming off the bench. The Knicks were great at the rim with 25-33 FG and I expect similar numbers from them today, while I also expect the Nets to catch a bit of fire from their outside shooting. Still, the Knicks have a lot of momentum right now and I expect them to blowout the Nets in a shootout. Therefore, I'll take both the Knicks and the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 New York Knicks (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/19: Milwaukee Bucks @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 815 Milwaukee Bucks @ 816 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: 188 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Milwaukee is coming from a game in Orlando, where they saw the Magic having a 17-0 run at the end of the game to stole them a win that seemed certain at one point. The Bucks struggled with their inside game, as they shot just 12-23 FG at the rim and 3-6 FG from 3-9 feet. They shoot a lot from the perimeter and when Orlando made an effort to stop their outside game, the Bucks had simply no offense. Gooden is doubtful for tonight and so, Milwaukee will have no inside game once again and they will need to shoot a lot from the perimeter. After a hot run, the Bucks are once again struggling with their ball movement, as they have dished less than 20 assists in their last 3 games. Besides that, their rebounding has been poor.

On the other side, the Nets are coming from a great win in Chicago yesterday, but where their starters played heavy minutes: Deron 42 minutes, Brooks 41 minutes, Humphries 44 minutes, Stevenson 33 minutes and Shelden 35 minutes! So, this will be a flat spot for them, especially on offense! The Nets also need a lot of their outside game to produce any kind of decent offense, as shown yesterday where they shot 10-22 from 3pts! However, today with tired legs, I expect them to heavily struggle from the perimeter. Considering the fact that they are a bad interior offensive team, 11-28 FG at the rim yesterday, the Nets are also headed to a poor offensive game today.

I expect both teams to struggle offensively tonight, with the Nets being mostly concerned about their defense. Note that Stevenson played big minutes yesterday, which means that coach Avery wants them to play defense or he will have put Morrow more minutes into the court. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection of just 188 points for this contest, low enough for me to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!

NOTE: Spread line available also on Pinnacle, Betonline, Betus or Betphoenix

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek

NBA Premium Play 02/11: San Antonio Spurs @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 509 San Antonio Spurs @ 510 New Jersey Nets

Projected lines: 198 points | San Antonio by 13 points

The Nets defense is just horrible right now, as they are playing on a 3-guards lineup with Deron, Farmar and Morrow, which makes their perimeter defense unbelievably bad, while their undersized and unathletic frontcourt makes them one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and even yesterday, they were abused by the Pistons in the paint with 56 points, while Monroe shot 8-9 FG! For today, the Nets will try to bounce back, but they will face the Spurs on a good spot for them and with Manu back and with the best offensive minded bench in the league!

New Jersey will have their hands full in the front court, as the tandem of Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and floor spacer Matt Bonner will look to dominate the smaller New Jersey four and five positions. New Jersey’s frontcourt starters are all 6’9. With Manu back, look to the spot up offense of the Spurs to quickly be established as being the best in the league and it won't be the Nets who will stop them. I expect an easy win for the Spurs tonight on a shootout contest and so, I'll take both San Antonio and the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 San Antonio Spurs (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/10: New Jersey Nets @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - 863 New Jersey Nets @ 864 Detroit Pistons

Projected line: 185 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 863/864 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/06: Chicago Bulls @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 509 Chicago Bulls @ 510 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: Chicago by 12 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Chicago Bulls (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/04: New Jersey Nets @ New York Knicks

NBA - 507 New Jersey Nets @ 508 New York Knicks

Projected line: NY Knicks by 10 points

This isn't in fact a good physical spot for the Knicks, as they are in a back to back to back spot and more than that their starters logged major minutes in both games and these games were against Chicago and Boston! However, more important than their physical shape is their mindset and I love the mindset of the Knicks for this game, especially considering the heart the team showed in their last two games, something unseen from them previously on this season! They are coming from two good performances which ended with two close losses down the stretch, so they will be fired up to finally get a win tonight! 

On the other side, even though this isn't a good spot for the Knicks, this isn't an easy spot for the Nets neither, as they will play their 4th game in 5 days, having played against the Wolves last night, where Deron, Morrow and Humphries logged 37, 33 and 40 minutes. In terms of matchup, I like the Knicks on this game. Both Shumpert and Fields are especially defensive minded guards and they will focused tonight in stopping both Deron and Morrow. With these two players well guarded, the Nets won't score because the rest of the team isn't talented enough. Humphries is coming from a brutal battle vs Kevin Love last night and tonight he will battle against Amare who suddenly is playing like an All Star! I also believe the Knicks will have a huge edge in the center position with Chandler and with him, the Knicks will have an edge on the boards tonight. Finally, I believe the key factor will be Carmelo, as the Nets have been playing with Shawne Williams and Jordan Williams at the SF position and these two players won't make Melo work on the defense, so he will be solely focused on the offense and in this case, Melo will have a huge edge over any player the Nets put on trying to guard him.

The Knicks are hungry for a win and I believe they have the necessary conditions to get a pretty comfortable win over the Nets. Therefore, I'll take them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 New York Knicks (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/03: Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 809 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 810 New Jersey Nets

Projected lines: 195 points | Minnesota by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Nets will be once again shorthanded with Okur being doubtful, Brooks and Stevenson out, while Morrow is probable. In their last game, they took advantage of Detroit's back to back to back spot to smash them on the boards and free throws, winning the game thanks to that, but still they had problems to stop the Pistons poor offense on the 2nd half! Their game against the Pistons was a really ugly game, full of loose balls, bad shots and turnovers, a bad sign for the Nets future games. Even though Deron is playing really well right now by averaging 29 ppg in the last 5 games, he has also lost some to the inattentiveness of his teammates!

On the other side, Minnesota is coming from a home loss against Indiana, in a very physical game, where Indiana's defense was very superior to Minnesota. Both teams had a big offensive rebound rate and free throws, but FG% of the Pacers was decisive. The Wolves weren’t allowed to get into rhythm during this game because there was no room to do so. They couldn’t create space to run their offense. I expect Minnesota to have a big edge on rebounding, especially on the key matchup between Love and Humphries, while also the edge in terms of turnovers, where the Nets have been struggle, while the huge difference between the 2nd unit of both teams will give a clear upperhand to the Wolves tonight! I expect Minnesota to have a very comfortable win today and so, I'll take them in here in a Double Dime Play! Considering the Nets turnover problems and the very slow pace they have been playing lately, I came up with a totals projection of 195 points, low enough to take the under in here as well.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 809 Minnesota Timberwolves (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 01/31: New Jersey Nets @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 501 New Jersey Nets @ 502 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: Indiana by 13 points

The Nets are coming from a game where they got confused by the lineup of the Raptors. They tried to post up more with their size advantage, but they simply weren't ready for that and lost their offensive flow, with just 5-19 FG on spot up plays! Humphries was almost invisible with 1-4 FG and 8 boards! New Jersey had a small edge on offensive rebounds rate, but Toronto was more aggressive and easy won the game. For this game, New Jersey has a lot of absences: Okur, Stevenson, Brooks and Lopez. They basically have no bench for tonight! They have been a good rebounding team, but for this game, they will be crushed by the Pacers frontcourt, who has more size and depth!

Indiana is coming from a big win in Orlando, where they had a super game offensively, with a tremendous edge in the paint against Howard. Their offense has been more fluid, especially as Granger is playing better and in their wins at Chicago and at Orlando, he shot 9-16 FG and 10-20 FG! With the improved outside game of the Pacers, Indiana will have more space for their frontcourt and so, their flow is obviously better on offense. Their bench was amazing against Orlando and the Pacers have clearly a good matchup against the Nets, as their best offensive game of the season so far was exactly what New Jersey. I expect a blowout win for Indiana against the injury-riddled Nets and so, I'll take Indiana tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker