Thursday, January 12, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 711 Dallas Mavericks @ 712 Boston Celtics

Projected line: 186 points | Boston by 9 points

This is a really good spot for Boston today, as they had 3 days off to rest, while Dallas is coming from a back to back game at Detroit! Yesterday, Dallas managed to get an easy win and so, they were able to rest their starters and nobody played more than 28 minutes. However, the Mavericks have been having terrible letdowns after good wins, so they aren't a team that can't be trust on these conditions. One of their main problems has been in closing out shooters, especially on bad spots and their game at San Antonio was a great example of that with the Spurs scoring 3pts shots after 3pts shots! Dallas is just #25 in defending spot up, with 1.01 PPP allowed!

Until now, Jason Kidd's absence hasn't been very noticed, as Dallas faced New Orleans and Detroit, however in a potencial halfcourt and against Rajon Rondo, I predict a lot of problems for Dallas on the defensive end! Boston is coming from a bad loss at home against Indiana, but the Pacers have a "defensive motor" that Dallas can only dream about. The Mavs are old and slow, while the Pacers are a hungry team full of young guys! I expect a bounce back game from Pierce after a 3-17 FG shooting night against Indiana, helping his team in getting a good win over Dallas, who is likely to have another letdown. I'll take Boston in here. As I expect Boston to have a good offensive night, especially with their deadly transition plays and as Dallas will eventually score some points on their own, I came up with a projection line of 186 points, good enough for me to take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 182,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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