Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/10: Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards


NBA - 503 Toronto Raptors @ 504 Washington Wizards

Projected line: Washington by 6 points
Toronto is coming from a home game last night against Minnesota, where it wasn't for silly fouls, they could have completely crushed the Wolves, who had no legs to hang in the Raptors. Toronto made a huge effort last night, but used little rotation on the bench. They used their starters at the maximum because they couldn't get a comfortable lead in the league and the only player the Raptors have in the bench that can play good offense is Leandro Barbosa.

Amir Johnson put on a hustle clinic despite having flu-like symptoms this morning. He held Kevin Love to 3 of 16 from the field, all the while posting 19 points and 11 rebounds, 8 of which were on the offensive glass - 30min e TOR +31 with him on the floor! Not only Amir made a big effort last night, as Bargnani played 45 minutes, DeRozan 38 minutes and Calderon 41 minutes! This will be the second game of a back to back to back spot for Toronto, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors start thinking about tomorrow's home game against Sacramento if things start to get out of hand for them tonight. Toronto has been struggling on the outside by shooting just 35% FG from 16-23 feet and 34% on 3pts and when they can't produce near the basket, they are in big trouble. In fact at Philadelphia, on a blowout loss for them, Toronto shot 8-23 FG at the rim! As this is a really bad spot for Toronto, we can expect them to try to be not so physical and be a more perimeter oriented team in the offense, something that won't work well for them at all.

On the other side, Washington has been a disaster early in the season, without any flow and ball movement. The good thing for them is that John Wall is going to be a good matchup tonight against the slow footed Calderon, who is coming from a 41 minutes effort last night. Toronto has Bayless out for tonight once again and without backups A. Carter and Barbosa, they aren't going anywhere. Toronto lacks a reliable bench and this lack of depth will be highly problematic for them. With Blatche out for tonight, the Wizards will start with McGee, Booker, Singleton, Young and Wall, a lineup that will put a huge effort on this game and therefore, I expect Washington to take advantage of Toronto's bad spot and get their first win of the season in here. I'm taking the Wizards tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Washington Wizards (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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