NBA Premium Play 01/10: Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected lines: 200 points | Philadelphia by 6 points

Even though Indiana was shorthanded without George Hill and Danny Granger and with Roy Hibbert sick, they were still able to make yesterday's game against Philadelphia a quite physical one! The Pacers had similar stats in TO's, ORR and FTR, but they couldn't have the same shooting% as the Sixers. The key on the game was the 2nd unit of PHI vs 2nd unit of IND, where Philadelphia clearly had the upperhand. However, the Sixers had problems with turnovers against the pressuring defense of Indiana, as a number of 18 turnovers isn't normal for them. Besides this, they had a solid offensive game, good balance on the offense and with the bench helping a lot. Indiana obviously tried to make the game sloppy and Philadelphia wasn't able to have a clean offensive game though.

On the other side, Sacramento has now a new style with their new head coach Keith Smart, with more free offense and in their last game against Orlando, they shot 10-10 FG in transition! The truth is that 14,5% of their plays were in transition, an obvious sign that they want to run and they did it really well by scoring 19 fast break points! They had normal troubles on ISO plays, with 6-14 FG and on spot up plays with 24.2% of volume, but just 7-21 FG! Their ball movement also seems to be much better right now and while they only dished 16 assists, a lot of that was due to their players missing their open shots, particularly from the 3pts line! The Kings offense has been having a lot of volume at the rim with 32%, but little efficiency with just 59% FG, however they are coming from a game where they scored 52 points in the paint against Orlando, while shooting 17-20 FG at the rim! Sacramento is now a very aggressive team with Tyreke Evans in transition getting a lot of free throw shots and they get Philadelphia tonight, on a bad spot for the Sixers, after a physical contest last night against Indiana!

Even though they have improved on offense, Sacramento's defense continues far to be a decent unit and their problems inside are quite evident, as they are allowing 75% FG at the rim! The Kings will continue to struggle on this area for the whole season, as with a frontcourt composed by DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson and JJ Hickson, there are no defensive miracles! Also Philadelphia is shooting 70% FG at the rim this season, so I expect the Sixers to have a clear edge on this area. Philadelphia has good depth with an excellent offensive minded 2nd unit, however with their tough spot for today, Sacramento will be a surprise on this game with a new style and especially with a new dynamic, as they want to run and be aggressive. Considering the fact that Philadelphia is a team that can adapt to any style, I believe this game to be a fast paced one and therefore, I've projected a line of 200 points for this game, enough for us to take the over in here. As a result of the Kings improvements and Philadelphia's tough spot for tonight, I'll be also taking the Kings in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Sacramento Kings (+9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker