NBA - 811 Memphis Grizzlies @ 812 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: LA Lakers by 10 points
Memphis has been having clear offensive problems without Zach Randolph, even though they were able to score 113 points against Sacramento, on a bad spot for the Kings and against a team who has a horrible transition and interior defense, which resulted in 21 fast break points and 72 points in the paint. But after that, the team could only score 90 and 85 points in their following two games against two teams who are far from being top defensive teams: Minnesota and Utah. They are still trying a lot of shots at the rim: 34.1% volume with 64% FG. Gasol has been playing very well, but Memphis has no depth on the frontcourt and tonight against Bynum and Pau, they are headed to a very tough night! Memphis needs to create turnovers, transition plays and off rebounds in order to be competitive! Memphis is indeed #1 in the league in offreb plays with 1.29 PPP, the problems is that LAL are #1 in defending offreb chances with just 0.80 PPP allowed! The Lakers are #10 in defending transition plays with 1.11 PPP, so the Lakers defense will have some edge over the Grizzlies offense tonight!
On the other side, the Lakers are coming from a sloppy game against the Warriors on a bad spot for them, as they had played at Portland in the night before. They have been dominating the boards and so, they will have an immediate edge over Memphis in here, especially now that they are playing without ZBO. The Lakers will also have an edge on the paint as well, as Memphis is coming from a game where they allowed 20-25 FG at the rim at Utah! The Lakers is even the #1 offense on post up plays with 1.06 PPP and they will face a team who doesn't defend well this kind of plays, as Memphis is #25 with 0.88 PPP allowed. Kobe may indeed suffer a lot of pressure from Memphis' wing defenders, but with such a big edge on the inside, I expect the Lakers to have a gameplan directed to the inside. I believe the mismatches in here are big enough for me to project the Lakers to be favorites by 10 points on this contest and therefore, looking at the current line, I'll take the Lakers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 812 Los Angeles Lakers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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