Soccer Free Premium Play 08/23: Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.