MLB Premium Card 08/17

MLB Pick #1: 951 Chicago Cubs @ 952 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: J. Arrieta vs. R. Montero)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Chicago Cubs ML @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 955 San Diego Padres @ 956 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: O. Despaigne vs. A. Waiwright)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over St. Louis Team Total 4 Runs @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

MLB Pick #3: 961 Milwaukee Brewers @ 962 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: W. Peralta vs. D. Haren)

Rating: 4 units - DOUBLE Dime Play

Pick: 962 Los Angeles Dodgers ML @ -113 / 1.88 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write up:

We’ve won our play w/ LAD’s SP Dan Haren on his start @ATL for a nice payout as he was a clear underdog in that game, here’s what I’ve written:

“I’ve faded Dan Haren on his last start @LAD and he was simply brilliant w/ 1.23 ERA + 2.04 FIP + 3.41 xFIP! It was a major surprise for me why he was so good after struggling so much lately, here’s why:

“[Haren] worked and he worked until he and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt found the adjustments that worked. Wednesday, it was a combination of returning to the delivery that had been his bread and butter in his glory years, the mid-leg kick pause that he said allowed him to “hold and gather,” and probably mixed a bit more deception into his delivery. He also featured more curveballs than he ever had, keeping the Angels just confused enough to hit the ball on less-productive areas of their bats.”

I expect Haren to keep using this same approach against a struggling Braves’ offense!”

Well, he was solid once again w/ 7/1 K/BB ratio and only 2 ER’s allowed in 6 innings of work. I’ll keep riding him today.

After losing the first 2 contests of this series, I expect LAD to bring some sense of urgency today. MIL’s SP Willy Peralta is coming from a subpar outing @CHC on his last start (we’ve faded him) and I really don’t expect him to hang around against Haren. Peralta’s 4.68 FIP + 4.12 xFIP & 16.4% K% vs. 9.0% BB% rates in this second half of season are telling us that his 2.51 ERA numbers are making him super overrated and so, some regression is coming for him!

MLB Pick #4: 967 Baltimore Orioles @ 968 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs. D. Salazar)

Rating: 4 units - DOUBLE Dime Play

Pick: 968 Cleveland Indians ML @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline