MLB Premium Card 08/19

MLB Pick #1: 951 Atlanta Braves @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. F. Liriano)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Pirates yesterday the first game of the series and I expect them to bounce back tonight in a favorable matchup for them.

ATL’s SP A. Harang has been struggling for a while. In his L4 starts, he had FIP numbers all worst than 4.00 and his control has been terrible as of late as well – I have him w/ 12.5% K% vs. 9.4% BB% in this second half of season. PIT’s offense has been one of the best in this second half of season, particularly against RHP’s and they will have Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup tonight.

On the other end, PIT’s SP Francisco Liriano is coming from a decent start vs. DET. I had a play against him because he was facing a top3 offense vs. LHP’s and DET had Max Scherzer on the mound, but still, he was pretty good w/ 2 ER’s allowed in 6IP’s & 9K’s! Liriano has an insane 29.2% K% rate in this second half season and this bodes well against ATL’s K’ prone lineup even though they are a good offense vs. LHP’s this season.

We have a great pitching mismatch favoring PIT IMO, while w/ McCutchen back, PIT is also a top offensive team vs. RHP’s and therefore, I’m taking them tonight.

MLB Pick #2: 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Anderson vs. S. Strasburg)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 954 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Chase Anderson has been decent lately but I think that he is primed for a letdown tonight! He is coming from throwing b2b outings +100 pitches, actually, he threw a season high 109 pitches on his last start vs. MIA and had “just” 4 days off for this contest… this is not a good combination for him IMO.

On the other end, Stephen Strasburg apart from having here and there a truly awful start, he is dominating teams right now. After falling apart against ATL by allowing 7 ER’s      in just 5IP’s, he bounced back and dominated the Mets in his last start w/ 7 scoreless innings and a nice 8/2 K/BB ratio to show. I have ARI offense being ranked #25 in L14 days & #29 in L7 days, so I expect him to keep dominating tonight.

MLB Pick #3: 971 Seattle Mariners @ 972 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: H. Iwakuma vs. A. Burnett)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 971 Seattle Mariners RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

The Mariners had the “expected” letdown yesterday against the lowly Phillies after their big series against the Detroit Tigers. I expect them to bounce back strong today!

They will face PHI’s SP A.J. Burnett who is clearly struggling lately. Burnett’s pitch counts have been super high as his command has been wild, on his last start he had a poor 4/4 K/BB to show! This season he has some awful numbers vs. LH batters w/ .358 wOBA + 5.23 FIP + 5.06 xFIP and SEA has a lineup loaded w/ good LH batters. That’s why they are ranked #14 vs. RHP’s but are dead last (#30) against lefty-pitchers!

Their confirmed lineup for tonight has 6 LH batters!

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF
2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
5. Logan Morrison (L) 1B
6. Endy Chavez (L) RF
7. Mike Zunino (R) C
8. Brad Miller (L) SS

On the other end, SEA’s SP Iwakuma has been one of the best pitchers of the league for quite some time. If he take in account that he has faced TOR, CWS & BAL in his L3 starts and still he dominated those lineups, we can expect him to be pretty decent tonight while SEA’s offense will enjoy a favorable matchup.

MLB Pick #4: 979 New York Mets @ 980 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs. S. Kazmir)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 980 Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

OAK is coming for this contest w/ a “bad mood” as they have lost their L5 games! Their offense has been awful lately especially against LHP’s. However, I expect them to bounce back tonight because NYM’s SP Dilon Gee is a good “matchup” for their offense:

Gee doesn’t have much “K” stuff as his 6.25 K/9 mark this season is subpar at best. Unfortunately for him, he has been pretty wild w/ his command w/ 15 walks on his L5 starts – his 10.0% BB% mark in the second half of season is awful! Well, this bodes well for OAK’s offense because they are ranked #3 in BB% this season w/ 9.1% & ranked #1 in K% w/ just 15.9% K% mark! They are super patient and they will put a lot of pressure on Gee tonight. Gee also struggles against LH batters w/ 5.66 FIP & 4.77 xFIP, and OAK will load their lineup w/ Left-Handed batters!

On the other end, Scott Kazmir has been rebounded pretty well after a bad start vs. MIN w/ 7 decent innings against the red hot Royals team. If OAK has been struggling offensively, what can be said about NYM’s offense?! They are in a “bad streak” of 5 consecutive games failing to reach the .200 BA! They are ranked #27 vs. LHP’s this season and so, I expect Kazmir to be decent tonight while OAK’s offense will have a favorable matchup.

MLB Pick #5:

NOTE: I'm playing also a 3-team ML's Parlay of plays #2, #3 & #4

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 954 Washington Nationals ML x Seattle Mariners ML x 980 Oakland Athletics ML @ +235 / 3.35 on Betonline