MLB Premium Card 08/20

MLB Pick #2: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cahill vs. T. Roark)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks RL+1.5 @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

We won easily w/ WAS last night as S. Strasburg completely “outpitched” C. Anderson. However, for this contest, I expect the Diamondbacks to be super competitive and therefore, at this current price, we are getting some value w/ them.

Trevor Cahill has been decent for quite some time and we cashed a nice underdog play on his last start @MIA, as he allowed just 2 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s of work. His 2nd half season numbers are excellent w/ 2.88 FIP + 3.36 xFIP!

Tanner Roark had some problems on his last start vs. PIT, and his command has not been the same lately w/ 8 walks in his L4 starts. He is coming from b2b starts in which he threw +105 pitches and had 4 days off for this matchup, so this is a potential letdown.

MLB Pick #3: 913 Detroit Tigers @ 914 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: R. Porcello vs. J. Odorizzi)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 913 Detroit Tigers ML @ +111 / 2.11 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

I think we have some edge w/ DET in this contest being underdogs against the Rays. Rick Porcello struggled on his last start vs. SEA, but I just can’t ignore the fact that he had to pitch 2 IP’s @TOR coming off the bullpen in the 19th marathon game w/ just 2 days off. This potential changed his usual routine and obviously, he struggled mightily in that game. Porcello has been pretty consistent in this second half of season and I expect him to bounce back tonight.

On the other end, Odorizzi has been consistent as well although he has some occasional bad games. I expect him to have a letdown in here as he is coming from 2 quality outings but those were against struggling offenses – TEX is ranked #30 offense in L14 days & CHC #25! DET is a different beast! My fair line in this contest is a pure 50/50 and so, I’m taking DET as my play.

MLB Pick #4: 929 Kansas City Royals @ 930 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Duffy vs. J. De La Rosa)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 930 Colorado Rockies FIRST 5 Innings ML @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Danny Duffy is primed for a regression sooner or later w/ 2.60 ERA vs. 3.80 FIP & 4.54 xFIP advanced numbers. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher w/ 47.8% FB% rate and so, pitching at Coors Field is a not the ideal place for him against COL offense that is ranked #5 vs. LHP’s!

On the other end, we have Jorge De La Rosa who has been great at home for some reason. We cashed w/ him on his last home start vs. CIN and I expect him to be decent once again at home.