MLB Pick #2: 953 Washington Nationals @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister K. Kendrick)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 953 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline
Detailed Write Up:
He allowed 4 ER’s but the biggest damage came via 2 HR’s! Still, he has been phenomenal in this second half of season that a bounce back is the most predictable outcome, especially if we take in account that he had already 2 quality starts against this PHI team this season.
On the other end, PHI’s SP Kyle Kendrick is having a subpar second half season w/ subpar 5.26 FIP & 4.93 xFIP numbers and a poor 1.58 K/BB ratio to show. His only decent start in this second half was against HOU – a poor team hitting vs. RHP’s this season, he struggled in all the others 5 starts! The Nationals already faced him twice this season, and in both starts, Kendrick struggled by allowing 5 & 4 ER’s.
I think that Fister is going to "outpitch" Kendrick while WAS is finally having a decent offensive performance after struggling to reach both Burnett and Hamels.
MLB Pick #3: 959 Milwaukee Brewers @ 960 San Diego Padres
(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs. O. Despaigne)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 959 Milwaukee Brewers ML @ -138 / 1.72 on Betonline
Detailed Write Up:
Here’s what I’ve said about him on his last start:
“SD’s SP Odrisamer Despaigne was pounded on his last start @STL by allowing 5 ER’s in just 4.0 IP’s. It was not a surprise for us because we took the OVER Team Total w/ STL for one of the easiest plays of the season, so it was another bad start for him. He has some awful bad numbers vs. LH batters and his command hasn’t been better! He already faced ARI this season and even though he allowed just 1 ER in 6.2 IP’s, I considered that start as a “lucky” one because his advanced numbers were way worst w/ 4.33 FIP & 5.27 xFIP vs. 1.35 ERA! FADE ALERT!”
Unfortunately, we took the OVER on that game, and while Despaigne indeed struggled w/ 3 ER’s in 5 IP’s, the Padres failed to score some runs. For this contest, I expect him to struggle vs. this top MIL lineup. Despaigne has only one quality start on his L5 starts!
On the other end, MIL’s SP Yovani Gallardo struggled a bit on his last start vs. PIT. Note that the Pirates are the second best offensive team vs. RHP’s in this season, so it wasn’t a favorable matchup for him. Still, Gallardo has great 2.84 FIP & 3.24 xFIP numbers on this second half of season. I would be surprised if he eventually ends up being outpitched by Despaigne and therefore, I’m taking the Brewers tonight.
MLB Pick #4: 963 Colorado Rockies @ 964 San Francisco Giants
(Starting Pitchers: F. Morales vs. T. Hudson)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Boomaker
Detailed Write Up:
I understand that the first 2 contests of this series went bellow the total posted but I think that both matchups will dictate a high scoring game.
The Giants are hitting relatively well vs. LHP’s lately w/ .319 BA in L10 games while they are ranked in a respectable #8 spot for the season.
We won a play w/ MIA by fading COL’s SP Franklin Morales:
“I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.”
He didn’t “disappoint” us as he allowed 6 ER’s in just 4 IP’s of work! He is on my fade list alert, so I’m just keeping riding the bus.
On the other side, SF’s SP Tim Hudson is a bit of a slump in the second half of season. His 4.41 FIP & 4.17 xFIP numbers says it all, especially when we compare with his 1st half numbers: 3.19 FIP & 3.35 xFIP! His command has been poor lately w/ only 11 K’s on his L5 starts and therefore, I think that even the dreadful COL lineup (on the road obviously) could get some production in this matchup.
MLB Pick #5: 977 Oakland Athletics @ 978 Houston Astros
(Starting Pitchers: D. Pomeranz vs. B. Peacock)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 8.5 @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
OAK will send LHP Drew Pmeranz to the mound as he was recalled from AAA for this contest. I expect him to have some natural “rustiness” on this contest and HOU will make him pay!
On the other end, I expect OAK lineup to do some damage vs. B. Peacock. We’ve lost a play fading his last start @CLE and apparently, he was removed from the game due to a potential injury. It looks like he is healthy for today. His struggles vs. LH batters & poor command in this season are a bad receipt against this A’s lineup!
MLB Pick #6: 979 Miami Marlins @ 980 Los Angeles Angels
(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs. H. Santiago)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 979 Miami Marlins ML @ +140 / 2.40 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
H. Alvarez has been pretty decent in the 2nd half of season w/ 3.62 FIP & 3.25 xFIP marks. We won a play on his last start @COL as he allowed 4 ER’s in 6IP’s in shootout affair and once again, I expect him to give his team a chance to win the ballgame.
On the other end, MIA is hitting quite well vs. Left-Handed Pitchers w/ .296 BA in L10 games and LAA’s SP H. Santiago doesn’t inspire me much confidence. Fangraphs.com made an article about his velocity decline on his fastball (http://www.fangraphs.com/
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