Champions League Free Premium Play 08/20: FC Porto @ Lille

Soccer Pick #1: Champions League - Porto @ Lille

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2 Goals @ +102 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write up:

The 1st leg of the Champions League qualification is always tricky as there is few information about the teams and most of all, we are coming off a World Cup and so, the “top teams” tend to need more time to mesh together. For this contest, I think that we are dealing w/ an underrated totals line! I was expecting to see the totals line to be around 2.25 goals and right now, we can get O2 Goals @ plus money.

The Portuguese side has a new coach and basically a “new” team as well for this season w/ innumerous new signings. Their coach Julen Lopetegui wants to play a free-floating offensive style while pressing high on the pitch. Right now, in my opinion, their attack is way advanced vs. their defense. They have some great individual talent on the front w/ Jackson Martinez, Yacine Brahimi and Ricardo Quaresma, but on the defensive side, I don’t think that they have a similar quality. Their defensive midfielder is a 17-years old teenager who scored one goal in his debut in this weekend, but he just can’t “offer” the same defensive quality as Fernando offered in the past and is now playing for Manchester City.

Lille has some great speed on the front w/ both Kalou and Origi! With Porto expected high pressure on the pitch, I expect them to concede some space on the back that will be explored by the French send w/ some quick counter attack moves.

Both teams have the proper edge to score goals in this contest and therefore, I’m taking the “Over” 2 goals for this current price.