MLB - 907 Tampa Bay Rays @ 908 Oakland Athletics
(Starting Pitchers: A. Cobb vs. J. Samardzija)
Play #2
The Rays lost their last series vs. LAA 1-2, but note that their offense wasn’t the problem as they generated 3, 10 and 5 runs. Pitching was their problem w/ Odorizzi and Hellickson not performing well.
Cobb is in a roll right now w/ 2.32 FIP + 2.48 xFIP numbers since the All Star break w/ tremendous 22/2 K/BB ratio in his last 2 starts. OAK’s offense is struggling a bit lately as I have them ranked #22 in the L7 days, so I expect Cobb to be decent tonight.
On the other end, Samardzija has not been the “same” since he is pitching for Oakland w/ 4.01 FIP + 3.65 xFIP marks vs. his season numbers of 3.34 FIP + 3.32 xFIP! I have Cobb way above him in my PR rankings and w/ the A’s struggling offensively, I’m taking the Rays in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ A. Cobb) @ +134 / 2.34 on 5 Dimes
MLB - 909 Cincinnati Reds @ 910 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: A. Simon vs. C. Kluber)
Play #3
“On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!”
We won the play even though he did “OK” as he allowed just 2 ER’s However, once again his advanced numbers didn’t shine at all w/ 4.86 FIP & 4.43 xFIP and a subpar 2/1 K/BB ratio! Sooner or later he is going to be “hit,” and for tonight, we have the #2 ranked offense vs. RHP’s going against him, so this is a bad matchup for him.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over Cleveland Team Total 4 Runs (w/ A. Simon & C. Kluber) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline
MLB - 913 Baltimore Orioles @ 914 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs. T. Roark)
Play #4
BAL’s SP Kevin Gausman has made 3 starts since the All Star Break: he was rocked in the first one @OAK by allowing 5ER’s in 4IP’s of work and then, he limited both SEA & LAA to just 1 and 3 ER’s. However, in both these L2 starts, his advanced numbers weren’t good as his 5/6 K/BB ratio can easily attest.
On the other end, we made a play in WAS w/ Tony Roark on the mound in his last start that was a winner. He has now allowed 1 ER each in his L4 starts! However, he had some pretty favorable in those outings especially vs. PHI, CIN & MIA who are ranked #22, #28 & #25 in offense in L30 days! For some reason, BAL is the second best offensive team in the league on the road w/ .748 OPS! Roark threw a season high 112 pitches in his last start, so I expect him to regress a bit tonight.
We are dealing w/ a 7-runs totals line so, there isn’t much margin of error for both pitchers in here…that’s why I’m taking the OVER w/ this 7-runs line.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7 (w/ K. Gausman & T. Roark) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
MLB - 903 Detroit Tigers @ 904 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. B. McCarthy)
Play #1
I’m taking the Tigers in this contest as I have no problem in laying a small juice w/ Scherzer on the mound.
We have a rested DET bullpen (important factor w/ this DET team) as their SP’s went deep during the weekend vs. COL: Verlander 8IP’s, Porcello 8IP’s and yesterday Anibal Sanchez went 7 IP’s! On the other end, the Yankees are coming from a tiring “ESPN game” vs. rivals Red Sox in a game that last almost 4 hours. This is a potential letdown spot IMO.
One of our biggest plays of the season was w/ Scherzer in their last start (Run Line Play). My notes about him:
“They will throw Max Scherzer to the mound and I expect Scherzer to take care of the business. His 3.31 FIP & 3.18 xFIP numbers in this month are good but not great, but please note the level of his opponents in the month of July (Ranked teams vs. RHP’s in this season):
LAA #8
CLE #4
LAD #5
TB #12
Yes, all top teams! Only the Rays aren’t a top 10 offensive team vs. RHP’s using season numbers, but I have no doubts that they are a top team right now – ranked #4 in the L30 days! Still, Scherzer managed to give his team a chance to win those games. He already has made 3 starts vs. CWS this season w/ great numbers of 2, 0 & 0 ER’s allowed!”
Well, he didn’t disappoint us: 7.0IP, 5H, 1ER, 6/1 K/BB ratio w/ nice 1.86 FIP & 2.75 xFIP! I expect him to be decent (once again) today.
On the other end, I’ve also made a play in NYY’s B. McCarthy in his last but we had to sweat to win that play @TEX as he didn’t fare well w/ 6.00 ERA + 4.81 FIP + 4.32 xFIP! Even though he has been solid lately, note that he has faced TEX 2x & CIN in his last 3 starts, we just can’t compare them vs. DET’s power offense! McCarthy’s 17.3% HR/FB ratio is a potential problem tonight vs. DET power bats @NYY stadium, and the correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Detroit tonight!
We have a rested DET bullpen (important factor w/ this DET team) as their SP’s went deep during the weekend vs. COL: Verlander 8IP’s, Porcello 8IP’s and yesterday Anibal Sanchez went 7 IP’s! On the other end, the Yankees are coming from a tiring “ESPN game” vs. rivals Red Sox in a game that last almost 4 hours. This is a potential letdown spot IMO.
One of our biggest plays of the season was w/ Scherzer in their last start (Run Line Play). My notes about him:
“They will throw Max Scherzer to the mound and I expect Scherzer to take care of the business. His 3.31 FIP & 3.18 xFIP numbers in this month are good but not great, but please note the level of his opponents in the month of July (Ranked teams vs. RHP’s in this season):
LAA #8
CLE #4
LAD #5
TB #12
Yes, all top teams! Only the Rays aren’t a top 10 offensive team vs. RHP’s using season numbers, but I have no doubts that they are a top team right now – ranked #4 in the L30 days! Still, Scherzer managed to give his team a chance to win those games. He already has made 3 starts vs. CWS this season w/ great numbers of 2, 0 & 0 ER’s allowed!”
Well, he didn’t disappoint us: 7.0IP, 5H, 1ER, 6/1 K/BB ratio w/ nice 1.86 FIP & 2.75 xFIP! I expect him to be decent (once again) today.
On the other end, I’ve also made a play in NYY’s B. McCarthy in his last but we had to sweat to win that play @TEX as he didn’t fare well w/ 6.00 ERA + 4.81 FIP + 4.32 xFIP! Even though he has been solid lately, note that he has faced TEX 2x & CIN in his last 3 starts, we just can’t compare them vs. DET’s power offense! McCarthy’s 17.3% HR/FB ratio is a potential problem tonight vs. DET power bats @NYY stadium, and the correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Detroit tonight!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes
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