MLB Premium Card 08/22

MLB Pick #1: 909 Miami Marlins @ 910 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: H. Alvarez vs. F. Morales)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 909 Miami Marlins ML @ -128 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

The Marlins have some chances to get a playoff spot via wild card and they really need to take care of games like this, so I expect them to be focused tonight.

They will send Henderson Alvarez to the mound. He was excellent on his first start after coming back off DL w/ 1 ER allowed in 7 IP’s while having a nice 1.29 ERA + 1.85 FIP + 2.38 xFIP stats line vs. ARI. His 6 K’s was his best mark since mid June! Pitching @COL is not easy but Alvarez has an elite groundball% rate of 54.6%, so this might help him avoid the HR threat.

I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.

Note also that there is a 40/60% chance of raining in this contest, so this could end up being a bullpen’s battle and COL’s bullpen is the worst in the league = another potential edge for MIA!

MLB Pick #2: 911 San Diego Padres @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: O. Despaigne vs. J. Collmenter)

Rating: 4 units - DOUBLE Dime Play

Pick: Over 8.5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Both Starting Pitchers are heavily struggling lately and I’m just fading them by taking the OVER in this contest.

SD’s SP Odrisamer Despaigne was pounded on his last start @STL by allowing 5 ER’s in just 4.0 IP’s. It was not a surprise for us because we took the OVER Team Total w/ STL for one of the easiest plays of the season, so it was another bad start for him. He has some awful bad numbers vs. LH batters and his command hasn’t been better! He already faced ARI this season and even though he allowed just 1 ER in 6.2 IP’s, I considered that start as a “lucky” one because his advanced numbers were way worst w/ 4.33 FIP & 5.27 xFIP vs. 1.35 ERA! FADE ALERT!

On the other end, ARI’s SP Josh Collmenter is also struggling badly. His L5 starts had all FIP worst than 4.00! His struggles vs. LH batters (.312 BA +.369 wOBA) will be explored by SD’s lefty-loaded lineup! Note that SD is the ranked #30 (worst) in the league but they are red hot lately – I have them being the BEST OFFENSE in this second half of season!

I'm taking the OVER in this contest as my Double Dime Play!

MLB Pick #3: 915 Houston Astros @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Peacock vs. C. Carrasco)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 916 Cleveland Indians RL-1.5 @  +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

I’ve faded HOU’s Brad Peacock on his L2 starts, here’s what I’ve wrote on his last start against MIN:

“MIN is coming from a series vs. best team in the league in which they scored 5, 4 & 6 runs in the L3 games all vs. decent pitchers. For tonight, I expect them to make some damage vs. Brad Peacock who has a god awful 10.86 FIP & 7.18 xFIP to show in the second half of season!”

Surprisingly, he held the Twins to just 1 ER in 5 innings of work, but everything rest was mediocre! He needed 115 pitches to complete 5 IP’s for an obscene 23.0 P/IP mark. The 115 pitches mark was by some margin his season high and w/ just 4 days off for this contest, I expect him to tire a bit fast today. He is a fly ball pitcher w/ 40.3% FB% rate in this season and his 12.7% HR/FB rate isn’t help him at all – this could be is a tough combination for tonight @BOS w/ the winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 MPH!

Well, Peacock allowed 5 ER’s in just 4.1 IP’s w/ a subpar 3/2 K/BB & 2 HR’s allowed for an abysmal 9.13 FIP! CLE is ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, so I expect another rough start for Peacock.

I’ve ride Carlos Carrasco on his last start vs. BAL for a Top play w/ great success… Here’s what I’ve wrote about him:

“On the other side, CLE SP Carlos Carrasco was great on his last start @NYY:

ERA        FIP         xFIP
0.00       1.53       3.03

Between the bullpen and that last start, Carrasco has a 2.08 ERA since he was demoted in late April! I expect him to take advantage of this second chance to finish strong the season because his advanced numbers are supporting this potential good run from him.”

He was great! He held the potent BAL lineup to 7 scoreless innings w/ a nice 5/0 K/BB ratio! HOU lineup is dangerous against LHP’s but they struggle vs. RHP’s and therefore, I expect Carrasco to be decent tonight while CLE offense will score some runs.

MLB Pick #4: 921 Seattle Mariners @ 922 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs. J. Kelly)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 921 Seattle Mariners RL-1.5 @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

I don’t need to say much about Felix Hernandez! Unless he is really hurt, I expect him to be decent against this dreadful BOS’s lineup.

On the other side, BOS’s SP J. Kelly can be decent in some spots. He was pounded on his last start vs. HOU by allowing 7 ER’s in 4 IP’s so he’s looking for a bounce back. While his numbers vs. Right-Handed Pitchers are pretty decent, he is really struggling vs. LHP’s w/ .306 BA + .370 wOBA + 5.03 fIP + 5.14 xFIP! The problem is that SEA’s lineup will be loaded w/ decent LH batters tonight:

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF
2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Kendrys Morales (S) DH
5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
6. Logan Morrison (L) 1B
7. Mike Zunino (R) C
8. Endy Chavez (L) RF
9. Brad Miller (L) SS

Therefore, I expect him to struggle vs. SEA’s bats while SEA has the “King” on the mound.