MLB Premium Card 08/02

MLB - 907 Milwaukee Brewers @ 908 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs. J. Masterson)

Play #1

Yesterday’s game of this series ended up being a high scoring affair w/ 11 total runs, but for tonight, I expect this contest to be a low scoring game.

MIL’s SP Kyle Lohse has been super solid lately. He ended July w/ a great 3.16 FIP + 3.59 xFIP numbers and his last start vs. TB was another solid performance if we take in account that the Rays have been hitting well as of late. STL offense is struggling lately w/ .214 BA vs. RHP’s and naturally, I expect Lohse to be decent.

Justin Masterson will make his first start w/ a Cardinal uniform, and the Brewers lineup could be a favorable matchup for him. His L3 starts before landing in the DL were a disaster, but he is now reportedly healthy. Note that even though he has struggled this season, Masterson remains almost unhittable against Righ-Hander batters: .214 BA + .305 wOBA + 3.18 FIP & 3.50 xFIP! Well, MIL’s lineup is a heavy RH line w/ all their top hitters batting from the right side, so Masterson could enjoy some edge in this matchup and therefore, both Pitchers will have the “edge” tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 7.5 (w/ K. Lohse & J. Masterson) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB - 921 Seattle Mariners @ 922 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Paxton vs. M. Gonzalez)

Play #2

I think that we have some value with the Mariners as my handicapped line in here is SEA-110.

I’m primarily fading Miguel Gonzalez in this matchup. He is a prime candidate for a regression in this season half of season as his 3.77 ERA mark does not compute his advanced stats line: 4.47 SIERA + 5.14 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! He has faced this same SEA team in his last start and even though he allowed just 1 ER in 6.0 IP’s, note that he had a poor ½ K/BB ratio and way worst 3.80 FIP & 6.32 xFIP numbers vs. his 1.50 game log ERA mark. It was his 1st start vs. SEA in his career! For today, I don’t think that he will be so “lucky”… pitching @BAL is different than @SEA and more importantly, SEA’s batters will be more prepared this time.

On the other side, James Paxton is returning to action after a long absence. He showed some great stuff early in the season in 2 starts vs. power hitting LAA team and also, the “factor surprise” will work favorably for him, and I expect him to be decent.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ J. Paxton) @ +101 / 2.01 on 5 Dimes