MLB Premium Card 08/05

MLB - 951 Miami Marlins @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: B. Hand vs. C. Morton)

Play #1

We are catching the Marlins w/ a nice price in this contest while I have them w/ almost 50% of chances to win this contest = VALUE.

MIA SP Brad Hand has been consistent lately. He is coming from b2b starts in which he faced top10 offenses vs. LHP in the Astros & Nationals (HOU #4 & WAS #7) and performed quite well by going deep in both contests (7.1 & 7.0 IP’s!). PIT offense is a mediocre one vs. LHP this season by being ranked just #24 and unfortunately, their best player Andrew McCutchen is OUT for some time.

On the other end, C. Morton enjoyed a nice month of June, but he struggled in the last month w/ 4.11 FIP + 3.94 xFIP numbers! His last start @SF was an ugly one w/ 4ER’s allowed in just 5IP’s while walking 4 batters…

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 Miami Marlins ML (w/ B. Hand) @ +118 / 2.18 on Bookmaker

MLB - 957 Chicago Cubs @ 958 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs. B. Anderson)

Play #2

This COL team is so unpredictable that I wouldn't be surprised if they crush the Cubs tonight, that’s why I’m taking more risks looking for a bigger reward.

This contest is a rematch… I had COL in the last game w/ these same Pitchers:

“Brett Anderson struggled in his first start after coming off the DL most likely due to the “rusty factor”, but since then, he made b2b quality outings against the Pirates. The last one was a particular impressive start if we take in account that he was pitching @COL against a team that he has faced a couple of days before. After 3 starts in July, he has a decent 3.02 FIP & 3.99 xFIP advanced stats line to show. He has yet to face the Cubs in his career, so I expect him to be decent tonight.

Eventually, the Rockies will win one road game and I think that they have a good matchup against Wood. Wood is coming from a start in which he logged 113 pitches, he had “just” 4 days off for today, so he might be tend to tire a bit fast in here. He has been struggling lately… Note that even though he had a respectable 3.60 ERA mark vs. STL in his last start, his 6.93 FIP mark is a bad sign for him.”

Well, both Pitchers were great! For tonight, I think that Wood will struggle more than Anderson primarily because pitching @COL could be a nightmare for him! He is a flyball pitcher w/ 39.9% FB% rate and the wind for tonight won’t help him: “Winds blowing out to center field at 10 m.p.h”

Note that B. Anderson is a groundball SP machine and I expect him to remain solid in this second half of season.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Colorado Rockies RL-1.5 (w/ B. Anderson) @ +150 / 2.50 on Bookmaker

MLB - 963 Texas Rangers @ 964 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lewis vs. J. Danks)

Play #3

I’ve faded TEX SP Colby Lewis in his last start vs. NYY without the expected outcome as Lewis has great in that outing. In fact, that start was the 3rd consecutive in which Lewis allowed 3 or less runs. Note that he has faced NYY twice & TOR in those 3 starts – I have them ranked #7 & #2 in the league post-break!

On the other end, John Danks keeps struggling and as bad as TEX offense has been, I have them ranked #7 (OPS) vs. LHP’s! This is a rare spot where the Rangers is getting some value on the road.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Texas Rangers ML (w/ C. Lewis) @ +103 / 2.03 on Betonline

MLB - 967 Houston Astros @ 968 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs. K. Kendrick)

Play #4

Probably, this might be the first time I’ll ride the Astros on the road being favored by the Sportsbooks, but we have some good factors working in their favor.

Dallas Keuchel made 3 decent starts since the All Star break has his 3.00 FIP + 3.33 xFIP can attest. He had some outstanding numbers vs. LH batters w/ .244 BA + .280 wOBA + 2.69 FIP + 2.47 xFIP and for tonight, PHI’s lineup is loaded w/ LH batters:

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
5. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
6. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
7. Darin Ruf (R) LF
8. Cody Asche (L) 3B
9. Kyle Kendrick (R) P

In my opinion, Keuchel has a good spot to perform quite well tonight.

On the other end, PHI’s SP Kendrick is coming from another subpar performance, this time against the offensively challenged NYM offense. He had the awful mark of 4.97 FIP + 5.32 xFIP in that game! HOU offense has been decent for quite some time. I have ranked them #10 in L30 days and therefore, I expect Kendrick’s struggles to carry on for this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Houston Astros ML (w/ D. Keuchel) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 971 San Diego Padres @ 972 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hahn vs. P. Hughes)

Play #5

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

SD’s SP Jesse Hahn has been excellent lately by allowing 3 totals runs in his last 3 starts but I really think that MIN’s offense is a bad matchup for him.

Despite having a stellar 2.01 ERA to show, not all has been great for him… his high walks numbers are well noticed as he walked 2, 3, 4 & 2 batters in his L4 starts. This didn’t prevent him to be decent, but for tonight, he will face the #2 ranked team in the league in BB% (w/ 9.2% BB% rate!). MIN is coming for this season w/ some hot bats w/ 3 consecutive games vs. CWS batting > .333, so I expect Hahn to finally have a bad outing.

NOTE: Split the wager 50/50:  

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 972 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ P. Hughes) @ -123 / 1.81 on Betonline

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Over Minnesota Team Total 3.5 Runs  @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

MLB - 973 Boston Red Sox @ 974 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: R. De La Rosa vs. L. Lynn)

Play #6

In my opinion, we have a complete pitching mismatch favoring the Cardinals and so, I’m willing to pay some high juice in this case as we are still getting some value.

Rubby De La Rosa is clearly struggling since the All Star break w/ 5.78 FIP & 5.81 xFIP. His K/BB ratio is just atrocious w/ 4/8 K/BB in three starts.

On the other side, Lance Lynn is well rested for this contest w/ 6 days off… He faced TB & LAD in two of his L3 starts (2 top ranked offenses vs. LAD) and he performed quite well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 974 St. Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline