MLB Premium Card 08/08

MLB - 903 New York Mets @ 904 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. A. Burnett)

Play #1

This is a rematch from a game played almost two weeks ago in which we cashed a big play w/ NYM and B. Colon. The Primary angle for that game was the potential letdown spot for Burnett:

“Burnett is coming from an outstanding performance against the Giants in his last in which he held SFG scoreless for 8IP’s! The problem was that he made 131 (!) pitches! With “just” 4 days off, I expect him to tire and struggle a bit tonight.

I’ve made a research this season when Burnett’s throw +110 pitches, what happened in the following start?

113 vs. LAA, 05/14, next start -> 05/20 @MIA      3ER’s allowed w/ 5.40 ERA & 4.13 FIP
116 vs. NYM 05/30, next start -> 06/04 @WAS    8ER’s allowed w/ 12.00 ERA & 6.30 FIP
111 @STL 06/20, next start -> 06/25 vs. MIA       3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 2.13 FIP
116 @MIA 07/01, next start -> 07/06 @PIT          3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 1.99 FIP

He didn’t fare well in those games…”

Well, Burnett was pounded as he allowed 7ER’s in just 5.0IP’s! Then in the next start he was ejected @WAS and threw only 51 pitches, so unlike his last start vs. NYM, we can expect him to be “fresh” and ready to go.

On the other end, we won that play w/ Colon as he allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 IP’s. However, note that PHI had 10 hits against him! They simply weren’t clutch! PHI is coming from a nice 3-games sweep vs. HOU, while the Mets had to play a 12-innings game yesterday @WAS, so PHI is also having a “spot” advantage in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ A. Burnett) @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

MLB - 913 Cleveland Indians @ 914 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: T. Bauer vs. E. Rogers)

Play #2

These two teams have struggled to score some runs lately, but I expect them to bounce back tonight vs. two poor ranked Pitchers.

CLE has scored just 2, 3 & 0 runs in their L3 games. However, note that they have faced Cueto, Latos & Bailey in those 3 games and all of them are talented pitchers. CLE is still one of the best hitting teams vs. RHP’s and E. Rogers in his career have the following stats line vs. LH batters: .304 BA + .376 wOBA + 4.80 FIP! CLE’s lineup for tonight:

1. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B
2. Mike Aviles (R) 3B
3. Michael Brantley (L) DH
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
5. David Murphy (L) LF
6. Nick Swisher (S) RF
7. Chris Dickerson (L) CF
8. Jose Ramirez (S) SS
9. Roberto Perez (R) C

CLE will put 7 LH batters on the lineup!

On the other end, NYY also struggled offensively in the last games. Something normal if we take in account that they have faced Scherzer, Price, Verlander & Porcello in L4 games! Tonight they will face Trevor Baeur who has been ultra inconsistent all season long. I expect the Yankees’ hitters to finally enjoy a good offensive performance.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ T. Bauer & E. Rogers) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

MLB - 919 Boston Red Sox @ 920 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: A. Webster vs. J. Weaver)

Play #3

Short write up on this one…

LAA has lost their L3 games, so their mood for tonight’s contest is quite predictable: bounce back time! They will face BOS’s SP A. Webster who simply couldn’t show any kind of command in his first 2 starts vs. NYY & TB! He the absurd mark of 11 walks in those 2 contents! Giving such “free passes” is always dangerous for a Pitcher, especially when facing the #1 offense in the league!

On the other side, I expect J. Weaver to be decent tonight. He bounced back pretty well in his last start @TB after his disastrous start @BAL. He has faced TB and BAL 2x in his L3 starts – tough matchups for him, so I expect him to be battle tested and ready to perform well.

We have a pitching mismatch working favorably for LAA while their superior offense will do the rest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 Los Angeles Angels RL-1.5 (w/ J. Weaver) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB - 927 St. Louis Cardinals @ 928 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs. C. Tillman)

Play #4

I don’t think that the Orioles should be favored by this much against the red hot Cardinals.

We lost our Top play against BAL last night, but note that their offense once again struggled to score. I have them ranked just #24 in L14 days (#30 in L30 days)! STL’s SP Justin Masterson didn’t have a particular good performance (rusty factor?!) in his first start as a Cardinal but he showed some good stuff w/ 7.50 awful ERA mark but a decent 3.30 FIP & 3.51 xFIP advanced numbers. He has some tremendous good numbers vs. RH batters while struggling vs. LH batters and in BAL’s lineup, only Nick Markakis is having a good season so I expect Masterson to be decent tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 St. Louis Cardinals ML (w/ J. Masterson) @ +117 / 2.17 on Bookmaker