MLB Premium Card 08/23

MLB Pick #2: 951 San Francisco Giants @ 952 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs. J. Zimmermann)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 952 Washington Nationals RL-1.5 @ +120 / 2.20 on betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The Nationals needed a wakeup call last night after winning 10 consecutive games – the majority of them were from walk-off wins, so they were feeling super confident going forward for yesterday’s game vs. SF.

Now that the streak is gone, I expect them to be more focused for today. More importantly, I expect them to be ready to take advantage of Tim Lincecum’s recent struggles. Lincecum has an awful 5.02 FIP mark & 10.0% BB% mark in this second half of season. He has 11 walks in his L4 starts and WAS lineup has a good batting history against them in the past: in 126 AB’s against them, they have .294 BA & .897 OPS! I’m fading him on this spot!

On the other end, WAS’s SP Jordan Zimmermann has been solid for quite some time. He has an excellent 2.92 FIP & 3.15 xFIP numbers in this second half of season and I expect him to be decent in here.

MLB Pick #3: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 956 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs. W. Peralta)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 955 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ +123 / 2.23 on 5 Dimes

I have the Brewers as a slight favorite on my Power Rankings and therefore, we are getting some value w/ Pittsburgh at this +120 / 2.20’s odds.

PIT’s SP Volquez has been decent lately. His L2 starts were against DET & WAS – two tough matchups and still, Volquez was pretty good in those games. Poor command has been the biggest problem for him and fortunately, he will face a MIL lineup that doesn’t have much patience: they are ranked just #25 in BB% this season w/ 6.7% BB% mark (and #21 in L30 days w/ 7.1% BB%).

On the other end, MIL’s SP W. Peralta bounced back on his last start @LAD (we’ve lost a play against him) but still, he keeps struggling w/ his command! He walked 3 batters and has a poor 9.4% BB% rate in this second half of season. His problems basically are the same as of Volquez. However, the Pirates have a patient lineup: they are ranked #5 in the league in BB% rate w/ 8.6%! A. McCutchen is finally gaining a nice rhythm since coming off an injury and we must not forget that PIT is the second best offensive team in the league vs. RHP’s! They should be such underdogs in this contest!

MLB Pick #4: 979 Los Angeles Angels @ 980 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs. J. Lester)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7 @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

This contest should be fun to watch as I expect both offenses to have some edge over the Starting Pitchers.

C.J. Wilson keeps struggling w/ his command! He is coming from an outing @BOS in which he walked 5 batters in just 5 IP’s of work! His 21.6 P/IP mark was insane and no wonder he lasted only 5.1 IP’s despite throwing 115 pitches. He had 11 walks on his L3 starts! This could be bad news for him if we take in account that OAK is the best team in league in BB% w/ an excellent 9.5% BB% mark! OAK will put a ton of pressure on Wilson tonight…

On the other end, Jon Lester despite being decent in almost every single outing, he has allowed 3 runs in b2b starts. His L2 starts were against KC & ATL – two top15 teams vs. LHP’s this season (KC ranked #14 & ATL #4) but for tonight, Lester will face the #1 ranked offense in the league vs. LHP’s, so I expect him to have some problems tonight. We should be dealing w/ a 7.5/8 totals runs and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.