MLB Premium Card 08/09

MLB - 953 New York Mets @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs. C. Hamels)

Play #

Cole Hamels is in the midst of an impressive stretch, and I expect him to be decent once again tonight against the Mets.

He dominated the Nationals in his last start (please note that WAS is a top10 offense vs. LHP’s this season) w/ 7 scoreless innings in just 86 pitches. He had 5 days off for tonight and he faces the same Mets team that he dominated two weeks ago (8IP, 6H, 0ER’s allowed & 8/0 K/BB ratio).

On the other end, I don’t think that Dillon Gee can compete with Hamels. Even though he was “decent” in his last start by allowing 2ER’s in 5.2 IP’s, note that his pitch count was high w/ 18.7 P/IP and he walked 3 batters during the process. His split numbers tell us that he struggles vs. LH batters and PHI will put 6 LH batters on the lineup tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Philadelphia Phillies RL-1.5 (w/ C. Hamels) @ +125 / 2.25 on Bookmaker

MLB - 957 Washington Nationals @ 958 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. A. Harang)

Play #2

I think that in this contest we are dealing with a Pitching mismatch favoring the Nationals...

Tanner Roark is coming from a subpar performance on his last start after 4 consecutive quality starts. Somehow, I expected such bad performance as I had a play w/ OVER in that game:

“On the other end, we made a play in WAS w/ Tony Roark on the mound in his last start that was a winner. He has now allowed 1 ER each in his L4 starts! However, he had some pretty favorable in those outings especially vs. PHI, CIN & MIA who are ranked #22, #28 & #25 in offense in L30 days! For some reason, BAL is the second best offensive team in the league on the road w/ .748 OPS! Roark threw a season high 112 pitches in his last start, so I expect him to regress a bit tonight.”

The good news for today is that Roark threw “just” 90 pitches, so I expect him to be quite “fresh” and ready to bounce back vs. ATL.

ATL’s SP Aaron Harang is coming from a game in which he threw a season high 118 pitches! His advanced numbers in his L2 starts are poor to say the least w/ 6/5 K/BB ratio while his pitch count wasn’t better w/ 19.7 & 18.7 P/IP. He is due to have a subpar game and I expect him to be “outpitched” by Roark in this matchup.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Washington Nationals ML (w/ T. Roark) @ -111 / 1.90 on Betonline

MLB - 971 Boston Red Sox @ 972 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs. G. Richards)

Play #3

My fair line for this contest is a pure 8-runs totals line, so we are getting some value w/ this current 7.5 runs line.

BOS’s SP Clay Buchholz has been a total disaster in this second half of season. He has walked 13 batters in his L3 outings and the Angels’ offense is a top unit in this league. His Zone% in those 3 starts = 36.4, 36.4 & 38.5% vs. Season average of 43.1% = not a good sign!

On the other end, Garrett Richards is coming from a stellar performance on his last start vs. rivals LAD w/ a shutout complete game! However, note that he threw a season high 122 pitches and he had just 4 days off to prepare today’s game. I expect him to be a bit tired against a BOS lineup that has some power.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7.5 (w/ C. Buchholz & G. Richards) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB - 979 San Francisco Giants @ 980 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs. J. Shields)

Play #4

KC is in a roll right now! They have won their L5 games while showing a consistent offense – I have them ranked #6 in L7 day’s ranks. I understand that SFG’s SP Tim Hudson has a 2.50 ERA to show on his L3 starts but he showed some “bad signs” in my opinion: 1) His pitch count was high w/ 17.8, 16.3 & 19.0 P/IP; 2) in his L2 starts he had subpar FIP numbers of 6.14 & 6.71 while his K/BB ratio were poor as well w/ 4/3 K/BB. He will face a red hot KC lineup…

On the other end, James Shields is coming from 3 consecutive performances. He dominated the A’s on the road – a tough task in the league w/ 8 strong innings in just 102 pitches! He is yet to face the Giants in his career so the “surprise factor” will work favorably for him as well!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 980 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ J. Shields) @ -142 / 1.70 on Betonline