MLB Free Premium Play 08/01: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs. J. Niese)

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I think that we have some value w/ SFG in this matchup as long as they are receiving odds of being the Underdog… my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 line.

The Giants will throw Ryan Vogelsong to the mound, and he has been solid lately (except on weird start @PHI). He kept the red hot LAD team in check by allowing just 2 ER’s in 6.0 IP’s of work. His advanced numbers of 2.30 FIP & 3.77 xFIP in that game was a good sign and I expect him to be decent tonight.

On the other end, I’m fading Jon Niese who has struggled in b2b starts after coming off the DL after allowing 3 & 4 ER’s vs. MIL & SEA. I’ve checked his game log numbers in fangraphs.com and one key factor has alerted me: his zone% in both games!  For the season, his average Zone% has been 50.0%, but he had 43.2% & 41.9% in those two games – both numbers are way off vs. his season mark! I think that he might need a bit more time to regain his old form and therefore, I’m taking the Giants in here @plus money!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ R. Vogelsong) @ +112 / 2.12 on Bookmaker