MLB Pick #1: 927 New York Mets @ 928 Oakland Athletics
(Starting Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs. J. Samardzija)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 928 Oakland Athletics RL-1.5 @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
I’ve faded NYM’s SP Zach Wheeler on his last start with no success against the Cubs. He held the Cubs to 2 runs in 6.2 IP’s of work, but note that he struggled (once again) w/ his command by walking 4 batters - his 13.8% BB% rate in this month is just awful! His 10 K’s were not a surprise at all as after all, CHC has been a “K” machine lately by being ranked dead last #30 in the league in K%.
This could be different against this patient OAK lineup…Here are some notes of my yesterday's play:
“Well, this bodes well for OAK’s offense because they are ranked #3 in BB% this season w/ 9.1% & ranked #1 in K% w/ just 15.9% K% mark! They are super patient and they will put a lot of pressure on Gee tonight. Gee also struggles against LH batters w/ 5.66 FIP & 4.77 xFIP, and OAK will load their lineup w/ Left-Handed batters!”
Curiously, Zach Wheeler also struggles a bit vs. LH batters this season w/ .272 BA + .347 wOBA + 4.19 FIP + 4.24 xFIP stats line. No wonder he was crushed by the A’s in a late June start in which he allowed 6 ER’s in just 2 innings. Wheeler threw a whopping 120 pitches on his last start and had just 4 days off for this matchup = FADE SPOT!
On the other end, Jedd Samardzija has been pretty solid for OAK. He has allowed the red-hot KC lineup to 3 ER’s in 6.1 IP’s while having a decent 5/0 K/BB ratio. He has 3.09 FIP + 3.45 xFIP numbers in this month of August, and against this NYM lineup, I expect him to remain decent for OAK.
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