MLB Premium Card 08/12

MLB - 905 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 906 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs. M. Minor)

Play #1

I’ve faded Dan Haren on his last start @LAD and he was simply brilliant w/ 1.23 ERA + 2.04 FIP + 3.41 xFIP! It was a major surprise for me why he was so good after struggling so much lately, here’s why:

“[Haren] worked and he worked until he and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt found the adjustments that worked. Wednesday, it was a combination of returning to the delivery that had been his bread and butter in his glory years, the mid-leg kick pause that he said allowed him to “hold and gather,” and probably mixed a bit more deception into his delivery. He also featured more curveballs than he ever had, keeping the Angels just confused enough to hit the ball on less-productive areas of their bats.”

I expect Haren to keep using this same approach against a struggling Braves’ offense!

On the other end, Mike Minor keeps struggling. His L3 starts numbers FIP-wise: 9.13, 5.68 & 4.47 FIP! ATL decided to give him some rest, but he already had almost 10 days off in the All Star break and still struggled in his first start after the break.

I have this line a pure 50/50 proposition and therefore, we are getting some value w/ LAD IMO at current prices.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ D. Haren) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker

MLB - 907 Milwaukee Brewers @ 908 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: W. Peralta vs. 

 

K. Hendricks

)

Play #2

I faded MIL’s SP Wily Peralta on his last start without success as Peralta was really outstanding w/ 1 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s while having a great 9/1 K/BB ratio. However, note that he threw 115 pitches in that start – season high! So far in the season, he had 2 more starts in which he threw +110 pitches, and he struggled in the following outing in both times! For some reason, CHC’s bats have great numbers against him - 90 AB’s + .300 BA + .907 OPS! I expect Peralta to struggle a bit tonight…

On the other end, Kyle Hendricks has been great lately. Note that he has faced STL, @LAD & @COL – all tough matchups and still he dominated in those games. He has some stellar numbers vs. RH’s batters (small sample indeed) w/ .197 BA + .238 wOBA. MIL’s right-heavy lineup will be in trouble tonight against him, and therefore, I see some value w/ the Cubs @underdogs.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ 

 

K. Hendricks

) @ +113 / 2.13 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 909 Colorado Rockies @ 910 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Flande vs. O. Despaigne)

Play #3

The Padres have been an “Under” machine in this season w/ 71-41-5 ATS UNDER record! However, SD is batting quite well lately, I have them #2 in the league since the All Star break, so we need to take advantage w/ their hot bats while the Totals lines are super low. They will face COL’s SP Yohan Flande who doesn’t impress me at all. He has a poor 2.0 K/BB ratio to show and for only once he has allowed less than 3 runs.

On the other end, I expect COL offense to show some signs of life against Odrisamer Despaigne. Since his stellar performance vs. NYM, Despaigne has been fade material w/ 3 consecutive subpar outings. His command has been atrocious w/ 11/9 K/BB! With so many “free passes” to COL’s batters, I expect them to do some damage in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7 (w/ Y. Flande & O. Despaigne) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB - 919 Toronto Blue Jays @ 920 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. Happ vs. C. Young)

Play #4

We cashed last night w/ SEA as they pounded the Blue Jays 11-1 while taking advantage of their superior spot. However for tonight, I expect TOR to bounce back…

I’ve released a play w/ TOR’s SP J. Happ on his last start (Triple Dime Play!) vs. BAL:

“On the other end, Happ has made 3 consecutive quality starts since the All Star break. He dominated the Astros on his last start w/ 7 strong innings by allowing just 1 ER! Note that HOU is a top 10 team vs. LHP’s this season, so he excelled in a tough matchup – a good sign for tonight!”

He was brilliant w/ 2 ER’s allowed in 8.0 IP’s & a stellar 12/1 K/BB ratio but we lost the play because TOR’s offense couldn’t score. Happ is a flyball pitcher so pitching @SEA is a good spot for him. Also, SEA is ranked #29 vs. LHP’s in the league, so I expect him to be decent.

On the other end, SEA’s SP Chris Young is finally showing some signs of regression. In 3 of his L4 starts he has allowed at last 3 ER’s. Also, I don’t like his pitch count in his L2 starts w/ 18.4 & 18.8 P/IP – that’s why he didn’t went deep in those games. He will face the #1 ranked offense vs. RHP’s this season, so we can expect TOR to score some runs in this particular matchup.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ J. Happ) @ +107 / 2.07 on Bookmaker

MLB - 925 Boston Red Sox @ 926 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: J. Kelly vs. M. Latos)

Play #5

I don’t trust these two pitchers… Joe Kelly is coming from a great performance @STL (his former team) but his advanced numbers weren’t that good w/ 2/4 K/BB ratio & 4.28 FIP + 5.17 xFIP numbers! The same thing can be said w/ M. Latos who had 10 walks in his L3 starts! We have also strong wind blowing out from WNW, so this is a good for a high scoring game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7.5 (w/ J. Kelly & M. Latos) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline