Soccer English Premier League Premium Card 08/24

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Hull City vs. Stoke City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Stoke City (+0.25) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

It looks like we have to start once again from behind in a new sports season… It happened w/ the NBA, NFL and more recently w/ the MLB, and we were able to grind back pretty strong and finish the season way ahead. Hopefully it will happen w/ this Soccer season as well!

For this contest, I’m riding once again Stoke City as long this +0.25 is available @ decent price.

I’ve made some notes about Stoke City in their inaugural game vs. Aston Villa:

“We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.”

I think that they will be pretty comfortable playing on the road this season as their possession oriented style suits them well in controlling the flow of the game – they were an underrated good road team last season having lost only two games since February and those were at Manchester City and Chelsea.

Hull City was able to defeat QPR in the first game in a game that they were a bit lucky as QPR missed several good chances including a penalty kick. Both teams used a similar 3-5-2 formation and the superior “experience” of Hull City prevailed in the game. However, even though they were playing w/ a conservative mindset after grabbing the lead, Hull City still conceded plenty of chances to QPR.

This contest will be a fairly contested affair w/ both teams having a pro-active approach and in my opinion, both teams have the same chances of winning the game.

Soccer Pick #2: Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur vs. Queens Park Rangers
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Queens Park Rangers (+1.25) @ -127 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -140 / 1.71 on Betonline)
Detailed Write Up:
QPR didn’t “deserve” to lose their inaugural game against Hull City. They created several good chances to score, they attempted 19 total shots which 6 of them went on target but ultimately, they couldn’t score. Loic Remy looked focused and made some nice individual plays and for this contest, new signing Leroy Fer is an option for the starting lineup.

Tottenham Hotspur is coming from a nice win on the road against West Ham w/ a late goal scored from the unlikely Eric Dier. I understand that they played more than 30 minutes with one less man as Kyle Naughton was sent off, but they were outplayed by West Ham when both teams went 11 vs. 11 for the first 30 minutes of the game.

Also, we must not forget that the Spurs had a game midweek for Europa League in Cyprus against AEL Limassol and this is not a good physical spot at all after the effort required in their game vs. West Ham plus midweek game in Cyprus.

Tactically wise, I expect QPR to keep using their 3-5-2 formation. In theory, they are a bit vulnerable on the wings but for this contest I don’t think that the Spurs will fully take advantage of that. With Kyle Naughton suspended, Eric Dier move to right-back but he is a full-back that lacks the proper pace for a wing-back, so I don’t think that the Spurs’ right side will maximize their potential edge vs. this QPR 3-5-2 formation.

The market is dictating a Spurs’ easy win over QPR but I don’t think so… I expect them to cause some problems and therefore, I’m taking the visiting team in this contest.