MLB Free Premium Play 08/08

MLB - 903 New York Mets @ 904 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: B. Colon vs. A. Burnett)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

This is a rematch from a game played almost two weeks ago in which we cashed a big play w/ NYM and B. Colon. The Primary angle for that game was the potential letdown spot for Burnett:

“Burnett is coming from an outstanding performance against the Giants in his last in which he held SFG scoreless for 8IP’s! The problem was that he made 131 (!) pitches! With “just” 4 days off, I expect him to tire and struggle a bit tonight.

I’ve made a research this season when Burnett’s throw +110 pitches, what happened in the following start?

113 vs. LAA, 05/14, next start -> 05/20 @MIA      3ER’s allowed w/ 5.40 ERA & 4.13 FIP
116 vs. NYM 05/30, next start -> 06/04 @WAS    8ER’s allowed w/ 12.00 ERA & 6.30 FIP
111 @STL 06/20, next start -> 06/25 vs. MIA       3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 2.13 FIP
116 @MIA 07/01, next start -> 07/06 @PIT          3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 1.99 FIP

He didn’t fare well in those games…”

Well, Burnett was pounded as he allowed 7ER’s in just 5.0IP’s! Then in the next start he was ejected @WAS and threw only 51 pitches, so unlike his last start vs. NYM, we can expect him to be “fresh” and ready to go.

On the other end, we won that play w/ Colon as he allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 IP’s. However, note that PHI had 10 hits against him! They simply weren’t clutch! PHI is coming from a nice 3-games sweep vs. HOU, while the Mets had to play a 12-innings game yesterday @WAS, so PHI is also having a “spot” advantage in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ A. Burnett) @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker