MLB Pick #1: 909 San Diego Padres @ 910 St. Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: J. Hahn vs. S. Miller)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7.5 (w/ J. Hahn & S. Miller) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write up:
The first 2 contests of this series were “Pitchers’ duels”, but for tonight I think that we are going to see a relatively high scoring game.
SD’s SP Jesse Hahn is primed for some regression on his next starts. His 3.04 ERA in the second start (4 starts) is quite good but his 4.48 FIP & 4.44 xFIP numbers are screaming some regression! His command has been subpar as well w/ a poor 15/12 K/BB in those 4 starts! STL offense has improved lately – I have them ranked #9 in the L14 days w/ a nice 7.8% BB% rate to show. Hahn dominated them in late July w/ 1 ER allowed in 7 strong innings, but I have some major doubts that he will be capable of repeat such great performance.
On the other end, STL’s SP Shelby Miller is coming from an awful start vs. MIA. His 4.87 FIP mark in the second half of season isn’t impressive while his struggles vs. LH batters are well noticed: 5.07 FIP & 5.03 xFIP numbers! SD’s offense has been pretty consistent in this second half of season (ranked #2!) and they will load their lineup w/ LH batters:
SD’s SP Jesse Hahn is primed for some regression on his next starts. His 3.04 ERA in the second start (4 starts) is quite good but his 4.48 FIP & 4.44 xFIP numbers are screaming some regression! His command has been subpar as well w/ a poor 15/12 K/BB in those 4 starts! STL offense has improved lately – I have them ranked #9 in the L14 days w/ a nice 7.8% BB% rate to show. Hahn dominated them in late July w/ 1 ER allowed in 7 strong innings, but I have some major doubts that he will be capable of repeat such great performance.
On the other end, STL’s SP Shelby Miller is coming from an awful start vs. MIA. His 4.87 FIP mark in the second half of season isn’t impressive while his struggles vs. LH batters are well noticed: 5.07 FIP & 5.03 xFIP numbers! SD’s offense has been pretty consistent in this second half of season (ranked #2!) and they will load their lineup w/ LH batters:
1. Yangervis Solarte (S) 3B
2. Abraham Almonte (S) CF
3. Seth Smith (L) LF
4. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
5. Jedd Gyorko (R) 2B
6. Rymer Liriano (R) RF
7. Jake Goebbert (L) 1B
8. Alexi Amarista (L) SS
9. Jesse Hahn (R) P
My fair line for this contest is a pure 8-runs game and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here!
MLB Pick #2: 917 Baltimore Orioles @ 918 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: U. Jimenez vs. C. Carrasco)
Rating: 4 units - Double Dime Play
Pick: 918 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ C. Carrasco) @ -141 / 1.70 on 5 Dimes
Detailed Write up:
BAL’s SP Ubaldo Jimenez was decent on his first start after coming back from the DL vs. STL w/ 3ER’s in 6IP’s of work, but his advanced numbers in that game weren’t “that good”: he had a poor K/BB ratio w/ 5/3 K/BB and his 5.13 FIP & 5.47 xFIP numbers were subpar as well. For this contest, I think that CLE’s lineup is going to be a tough matchup for him! Note that Jimenez’s has some subpar numbers vs. LH batters in this season w/ .356 wOBA + 5.60 FIP + 5.40 xFIP!
I’ve just confirmed CLE’s lineup for today:
1. Michael Bourn (L) CF
2. Jose Ramirez (S) SS
3. Michael Brantley (L) LF
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
5. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B
6. Yan Gomes (R) C
7. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) 3B
8. Zach Walters (S) DH
9. Chris Dickerson (L) RF
9. Chris Dickerson (L) RF
On the other side, CLE SP Carlos Carrasco was great on his last start @NYY:
ERA FIP xFIP
0.00 1.53 3.03
Between the bullpen and that last start, Carrasco has a 2.08 ERA since he was demoted in late April! I expect him to take advantage of this second chance to finish strong the season because his advanced numbers are supporting this potential good run from him.
MLB Pick #3: 921 Houston Astros @ 922 Boston Red Sox
(Starting Pitchers: B. Peacock vs. R. De La Rosa)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 922 Boston Red Sox RL-1.5 (w/ R. De La Rosa) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write up:
I’ve faded HOU’s SP Brad Peacock on his last start against MIN:
“MIN is coming from a series vs. best team in the league in which they scored 5, 4 & 6 runs in the L3 games all vs. decent pitchers. For tonight, I expect them to make some damage vs. Brad Peacock who has a god awful 10.86 FIP & 7.18 xFIP to show in the second half of season!”
Surprisingly, he held the Twins to just 1 ER in 5 innings of work, but everything rest was mediocre! He needed 115 pitches to complete 5 IP’s for an obscene 23.0 P/IP mark. The 115 pitches mark was by some margin his season high and w/ just 4 days off for this contest, I expect him to tire a bit fast today. He is a fly ball pitcher w/ 40.3% FB% rate in this season and his 12.7% HR/FB rate isn’t help him at all – this could be is a tough combination for tonight @BOS w/ the winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 MPH!
On the other end, BOS’s SP Rubby De La Rosa is finally showing some good stuff after some inconsistency. He is coming from 3 consecutive quality outings in which he dominated LAA, STL & TOR – an impressive accomplishment! I expect him to be decent tonight!
MLB Pick #4: 925 Kansas City Royals @ 926 Minnesota Twins
(Starting Pitchers: Y. Ventura vs. P. Hughes)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 926 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ P. Hughes) @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write up:
After a bad stretch just before the end of the first half of season, Phil Hughes has bounced back pretty strong in this second half w/ 2.75 FIP & 3.28 xFIP numbers! He is coming from 3 consecutive quality starts w/ one of them being against this KC lineup in which he allowed 3ER’s (all of them in the 6th inning after an error committed by E. Nunez) in 6.0 IP’s. His control has been impeccable w/ 21.7% K% vs. 3.3% BB%. His biggest problem has been the HR-ball but KC is not a potent lineup – they are ranked just #20 in ISO in this 2nd half despite being #7 in the league BA-wise w/ .262, so this is a good matchup for Hughes.
On the other side, Yordano has been inconsistent lately… His pitch counts are usually highly lately w/ their command being iffy as well – he walked 4 batters on his last start. Walks were a real issue on his 2 starts vs. MIN TY in which he walked 3 & 4 batters. KC is the hottest team in the league right now, but MIN’s offense has been great lately as well – I have them ranked #2 in the league in L14 days!
The public is going to support KC in this contest but I feel that the value is w/ MIN and therefore, I’m taking them in here.
On the other side, Yordano has been inconsistent lately… His pitch counts are usually highly lately w/ their command being iffy as well – he walked 4 batters on his last start. Walks were a real issue on his 2 starts vs. MIN TY in which he walked 3 & 4 batters. KC is the hottest team in the league right now, but MIN’s offense has been great lately as well – I have them ranked #2 in the league in L14 days!
The public is going to support KC in this contest but I feel that the value is w/ MIN and therefore, I’m taking them in here.
MLB Pick #5: 929 Oakland Athletics @ 930 Atlanta Braves
(Starting Pitchers: Y. Ventura vs. P. Hughes)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 929 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ S. Gray) @ -102 / 1.98 on Betonline
Detailed Write up:
OAK’s SP Sonny Gray has struggled a little bit in the last 2 starts against TB & KC after 6 consecutive awesome starts. The key factor of those two starts IMO was the low number of K’s w/ just 3 & 2 – subpar numbers for a pitcher that has a decent 20.3% K% mark to show in the season. Well, KC & TB are ranked #1 & #3 in league in K%’s, so that’s explains why he struggled. The good news is that ATL is ranked #27 in the league in K%’s and Gray is yet to face them in his career – “factor surprise” could benefit him in here.
On the other end, ATL’s SP Julio Teheran has been inconsistent lately. Walks were a key problem for him on his L3 starts w/ 2, 2 & 3 BB’s, and OAK is just the #1 team in the league w/ BB’s w/ a stellar 9.4% BB% rate. Also, he has some impressive numbers vs. RH batters in this season, but his numbers vs. LH are not in the same level: .299 wOBA + 4.02 FIP + 3.79 xFIP! Obviously, OAK will load their lineup w/ LH batters:
On the other end, ATL’s SP Julio Teheran has been inconsistent lately. Walks were a key problem for him on his L3 starts w/ 2, 2 & 3 BB’s, and OAK is just the #1 team in the league w/ BB’s w/ a stellar 9.4% BB% rate. Also, he has some impressive numbers vs. RH batters in this season, but his numbers vs. LH are not in the same level: .299 wOBA + 4.02 FIP + 3.79 xFIP! Obviously, OAK will load their lineup w/ LH batters:
1. Coco Crisp (S) CF
2. John Jaso (L) C
3. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
4. Brandon Moss (L) LF
5. Stephen Vogt (L) 1B
6. Josh Reddick (L) RF
7. Alberto Callaspo (S) 2B
8. Eric Sogard (L) SS
9. Sonny Gray (R) P
OAK is a tough matchup for Teheran and so, I’m taking the Athletics tonight.
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