NBA - 809 Dallas Mavericks @ 810 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected line: 207 points
**TOP PLAY**
Minnesota keeps getting close to win a game, but without being able to do it. They will try once again tonight against the defending champions. The Wolves will have JJ Barea back tonight and he is a huge lift offensively for the team in the backcourt. Ricky Rubio is excellent in running the team, but he's not a scorer and with Barea, the team gets their much needed backcourt threat. In fact, the major weakness of the team has been the 3pts% with just 43% eFG and 37% eFG from 16-23 feet, which isn't good neither. Dallas has been a terrible defensive team against fast paced backcourt players and they have been allowing 43% eFG from 16-23 feet and 69% eFG% from the 3pts line! Minnesota loves to score in transition, as 15% of their offensive plays are indeed in transitions and Dallas has been really weak in defending this kind of plays by allowing 1.25 PPP!
On the other side, Dallas has been recovering some players who had a terrible beginning of the season. In their last game against Toronto, both Jason Terry and Vince Carter had already acceptable games and the Mavericks have a good offensive 2nd, just like Minnesota with Ricky Rubio, JJ Barea and Derrick Williams coming out of the bench. Dallas has been achieving some good offensive numbers where they are really good: 54% eFG from 16-23 feet! Minnesota is one of the teams who plays on the fastest pace in the league, together with Denver, Miami and Portland, so tonight against Dallas, they will surely try to run up and down against their veteran opponents. Curiously, Dallas has already faced three top fast paced teams this season (Miami, Denver and Oklahoma City) and they had clear problems in stopping them. I believe Dallas being favored by 3 points in here is a fair line, however considering how Minnesota likes to play quick and how Dallas has bounced back nicely offensively on their last games, I came up with a projection of 207 points, clearly above of the current line of 201,5 points. Therefore, I'll be taking the over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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