Projected line: Houston by 6 points | 188 Points
***TOP PLAY***
***SPLIT THE WAGER***
This will be a game between two teams who are clearly on a terrible spot for tonight. While Houston will be playing their third game in three nights, Atlanta will be playing on a home-road back to back spot, having played four games in the last five days! Atlanta is 3-0 right now, but I really don't like their mindset. Considering their bad spot for tonight, as it's not easy to play a home-road back to back game, after two home games in a row, I believe the Hawks are into some huge problems tonight, as they are a perimeter oriented team, who doesn't show a lot of fight on the boards! Even though Atlanta faced lowly teams on their last two games, their rotation was quite short! Against Washington, all their starters logged in for more than 30 minutes and yesterday against New Jersey, Teague, Johnson and Smith played more than 33 minutes! On the other side, Houston will be playing a back to back to back game, but their main advantage is that their first two games of this stretch were blowout games for the better and the worse and so, all starters played less than 30 minutes in both games!
Houston had problems against Orlando and Memphis, two teams with very powerful frontcourts, but the Hawks are a very different team, as 52% of their shots are from 16 feet or further, which means that Atlanta is clearly a perimeter team and this will prevent Houston from being crushed down low! Even though Atlanta tries 36.1% of their shots at the rim, they just convert 59% of them (Houston allowed 73.8% FG at the rim mainly due to their past opponents!), so I believe they won't succeed on scoring close to the basket today neither. Teague is coming from a super game last night against the Nets, with 9-12 FG (8-10 FG at the rim, helped by the very poor help defense of the Nets). Teague looked like Rondo based on his ability to get to the rim! But the Rockets will have their only great defender on the lineup exactly matching up against him, Kyle Lowry, so I don't expect Teague to have a big game tonight at all!
On the other side, Houston has a well balanced offense, in which they take advantage very well of transition plays with 1.16 PPP (Points Per Possession). They also perform Cuts quite well with 1.31 PPP and even on Spot Up plays they aren't terrible, with 0.92 PPP! This team of the Rockets offer a tough matchup to Atlanta due to their offensive game and already last year, Atlanta lost both games against the Rockets. On this bad spot, I like Houston at home against a perimeter team (on a similar spot where San Antonio lost big at Houston earlier in this week, with the Spurs being also a jump shooting team). So, I believe Houston should have been the favourites for this contest and considering that they aren't, I'll be taking them in here.
I'll be also taking the under on this contest, as I expect Atlanta to heavily struggle on offense, as their tired legs won't allow them to execute their perimeter shooting well, while Houston may want to slow down the pace a bit, considering this is a back to back to back spot for them.
***SPLIT THE WAGER***
This will be a game between two teams who are clearly on a terrible spot for tonight. While Houston will be playing their third game in three nights, Atlanta will be playing on a home-road back to back spot, having played four games in the last five days! Atlanta is 3-0 right now, but I really don't like their mindset. Considering their bad spot for tonight, as it's not easy to play a home-road back to back game, after two home games in a row, I believe the Hawks are into some huge problems tonight, as they are a perimeter oriented team, who doesn't show a lot of fight on the boards! Even though Atlanta faced lowly teams on their last two games, their rotation was quite short! Against Washington, all their starters logged in for more than 30 minutes and yesterday against New Jersey, Teague, Johnson and Smith played more than 33 minutes! On the other side, Houston will be playing a back to back to back game, but their main advantage is that their first two games of this stretch were blowout games for the better and the worse and so, all starters played less than 30 minutes in both games!
Houston had problems against Orlando and Memphis, two teams with very powerful frontcourts, but the Hawks are a very different team, as 52% of their shots are from 16 feet or further, which means that Atlanta is clearly a perimeter team and this will prevent Houston from being crushed down low! Even though Atlanta tries 36.1% of their shots at the rim, they just convert 59% of them (Houston allowed 73.8% FG at the rim mainly due to their past opponents!), so I believe they won't succeed on scoring close to the basket today neither. Teague is coming from a super game last night against the Nets, with 9-12 FG (8-10 FG at the rim, helped by the very poor help defense of the Nets). Teague looked like Rondo based on his ability to get to the rim! But the Rockets will have their only great defender on the lineup exactly matching up against him, Kyle Lowry, so I don't expect Teague to have a big game tonight at all!
On the other side, Houston has a well balanced offense, in which they take advantage very well of transition plays with 1.16 PPP (Points Per Possession). They also perform Cuts quite well with 1.31 PPP and even on Spot Up plays they aren't terrible, with 0.92 PPP! This team of the Rockets offer a tough matchup to Atlanta due to their offensive game and already last year, Atlanta lost both games against the Rockets. On this bad spot, I like Houston at home against a perimeter team (on a similar spot where San Antonio lost big at Houston earlier in this week, with the Spurs being also a jump shooting team). So, I believe Houston should have been the favourites for this contest and considering that they aren't, I'll be taking them in here.
I'll be also taking the under on this contest, as I expect Atlanta to heavily struggle on offense, as their tired legs won't allow them to execute their perimeter shooting well, while Houston may want to slow down the pace a bit, considering this is a back to back to back spot for them.
Pick: 2 units on 506 Houston Rockets ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units on 506 Houston Rockets (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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