Thursday, January 12, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/11: Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks

NBA - 705 Philadelphia 76ers @ 706 New York Knicks

Projected line: 200 points
Philadelphia is on a back to back to back spot for tonight, but as their first two games were home blowout wins, I don't believe the physical condition of the Sixers will be a concern in here, especially when we are talking about one of the teams with more depth on their roster! Their offense is super well balanced and the team shoots well from everywhere due to their excellent ball movement, especially thanks to the great offensive continuity between the 1st and 2nd units of the team. Take a look at shot locs of the Sixers this season:

%Rim    %Short    %Mid    %Long    %3P      
24.6%    13.9%    13.5%    27.1%    20.9%   

The truth is that Philadelphia is in the Top 5 in several kinds of plays: #1 in ISO's with 0.95 PPP, #4 in P&R Ball Handler with 0.88 PPP, #3 in P&R Roll Man with 1.23 PPP, #5 in Spot-up with 1.23 PPP and #3 in Cuts with 1.35 PPP! The Knicks defense, as I've said before, has a lot of problems on their help defense and in doing close outs to their opposing shooters! For that reason, they are the 3rd worst 3pts% defending team by allowing 40.4%! In my opinion, Philadelphia won't have any problems in having more than 110 off rates today!

The question in here is to know how the Knicks offense will perform. Amare is coming from an unbelievable bad game against Charlotte, in which he shot 7-25 FG with 3-12 FG at the rim and 1-6 FG from 3-9 feet! We can expect a bounce back from him today. The weakest link in the Sixers defense is exactly the post up where they are "just" ranked #18! Hawes has a back injury and he is questionable for tonight and yesterday Cousins was able to shoot 7-15 FG on a 17 points performance! This should be a good offensive game, as the Knicks should bounce back from a poor offensive game in their last game, while the Sixers are currently a very good offensive team, who can take advantage very well of struggling defenses like the Knicks. Therefore, I came up with a projection of 200 points and so, I'll take the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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