NBA - 711 New Orleans Hornets @ 712 Denver Nuggets
Projected line: 196 points
After a tough game against Denver, the Hornets couldn't handle the bad spot on their back to back game at Dallas and they couldn't produce decent basketball at all, including a weird number of 21 committed turnovers! It was their season high on turnovers, when in the previous day against a powerful pressuring defensive team like Denver, they had just committed 17! It was clear that they had no legs on that game, as they shot 1-9 FG from 10-15 feet, 4-18 FG from 16-23 feet, even though they shot 6-11 3pts! On the other side, Denver is coming from a run and gun game against San Antonio, where we easily cashed the over on that game by 40 points! Looking at the pace Denver plays at a good offensive team, a shootout is impossible to avoid! At New Orleans, Denver won by 96-88 and the early struggles of the Nuggets on that game were evident, as they scored just 24+17 points in the 1st half! They were coming from an easy home win against Sacramento and they had problems in adjusting to the completely different style of the Hornets. Still, the Nuggets still scored 19 fast break points, but they shot just 7-16 FG in transition and scored 56 points in the paint! Denver struggled badly on spot ups with 8-24 FG, what reflected in their 3pts numbers: 5-21! Still they scored 96 points in a bad overall offensive game! On the other side of the court, New Orleans had a solid offensive game with 46.8% FG and 8-17 3pts, but they weren't aggressive, as they shot just 8-10 FT!
For today and playing at home, Denver will set their usual fast pace and they won't have identity problems like they had in last Friday's game at New Orleans. The Hornets aren't a good team in defending the rim, as they are allowing 69% FG this season, so an edge for the Nuggets is expected in here, as it should also happen on transitions, as New Orleans is just #24 in the league in defending this kind of plays by allowing 1.21 PPP! I expect a much faster pace for this game than in the previous H2H game of this season, with Denver improving their offensive efficiency especially in the 1st half, while the Hornets should repeat their decent offensive performance from the first game. Therefore, I came up with a projected line of 196 points, high enough for us to take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment