NBA - 809 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 810 Portland Trailblazers
Projected line: Portland by 20 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This is a super bounce back spot at home for Portland, after a disaster on national TV in their last game at Phoenix, where they simply had no legs to compete. First of all, I believe Portland is going to completely stop Cleveland's offense. The main characteristics of the Cavs offense is to shoot close to the rim with 33.3% of volume, but just 59% FG, or shoot 3pts with 25.1% of volume but with a good 41% FG! Cleveland is shooting 60% of their shots from these two areas, however if one of these two areas is stopped by the opponent's defense, then Cleveland has in huge problems, as the team is mediocre on every other area of the court! The Cavs shot just 6-21 FG at the rim at Toronto and they immediately got blown out by 77-92! Well, Portland's defense has been solid at the rim by allowing just 59% FG, but I even admit some struggles from Portland's defense on this area, however on the perimeter defense, Portland is really excellent and Cleveland will have huge problems in shooting from the outside tonight! The Blazers are just allowing 24% from 3pts and they are the 3rd best defense in the league on defending spot ups by allowing just 0.80 PPP! So, Cleveland will be completely shut down on offense tonight!
On the other side, Portland's offense has a huge mismatch today: LaMarcus Aldridge vs Antawn Jamison! With Cleveland's offense being turnover prone (they had games this season where they committed 22, 18, 22 and 15 turnovers), the high pressure of the Blazers defense will put them in huge trouble, especially with Raymond Felton pressuring rookie Kyrie Irving! Note that Cleveland is #1 in the league on fast break defense with just 6.0 fast break points allowed per game and Portland needs to score in transition, however note that if we take a look at the ranks of the opponents that Cleveland has faced this season so far: TOR x2 (30th with 6.8 FB/game), DET (25th, 9.0 FB/game), IND (23rd, 9.9 FB/game), NJN (29th, 8.3 FB/game), CHA (16th, 12.1 FB/game) and MIN (28th, 8.4 FB/game). Of course they have the merit of being #1 on this stat, but they haven't faced a team who had push the pace on open court so far on this season!
Considering Portland's great spot for tonight and the clear mismatches that the Trailblazers have for this game on both offense and defense, I can only expect one thing: a huge blowout win for Portland, clearly the much better team from the two. Therefore, I came up with a projection line of 20 points and so, looking at the current line, I'm taking Portland in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 810 Portland Trailblazers (-10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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