NBA - 517 Milwaukee Bucks @ 518 Los Angeles Clippers
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Projection line: 184 points | LA Clippers by 7 points
The Clippers are 2-0 on their last two games and they are coming from a huge blowout win against the Rockets, where they team used very well the terrible interior defense of the Rockets to shoot 20-24 FG at the rim and 11-14 FG from 3-9 feet! They continue to be poor on the outside shooting, but with these numbers and volume close to the basket, they win easily! They also took advantage of the bad transition defense of Houston to score 22 points! However, I have some doubts about their mindset for this game and I see them being on a potential emotional letdown in here!
First of all, Milwaukee can offer problems to the Clippers close to the basket. Bogut may be out, but the Bucks still have Gooden, Ilyasova, Sanders and Leuer! Excluding Gooden, these players can be raw on offense, but they fight a lot on defense, always showing a lot of hustle! Milwaukee is #6 on transition defense by allowing just 0.99 PPP and they are #1 in spot up defense allowing 0.62 PPP! In fact, the Bucks are #1 on overall defense by allowing just 0.81 PPP to their opponents! So, it won't be easy for LAC to score tonight, as the Bucks have also a good perimeter defense that will help the frontcourt.
On the other side, Milwaukee's offense continues to be bad as usual. They are coming from a good offensive game against Sacramento, who was tired and playing on a back-to-back-to-back spot, but they still could only score 24+18 points in the 2nd half! Milwaukee has lost three games in a row on the road and tonight, they are coming desperate for this game. Jennings is coming from a big game, but tonight vs CP3, he won't have an easy task (LY h2h vs NOH: 5-11 FG 2-4 3pts 12pts 5/3 A/TO - 81-87 L vs NO; 5-14 FG 2-6 3pts 15pts 10/1 A/TO - 91-95 L @NO)!
Last season, good teams (winning percentage > 66%) went 8-1 Under in home games as favorites after winning outright and covering by at least 15 points, a clear sign that the spot that the Clippers have for tonight's game can cause a clear letdown. This game has everything to be a sloppy game and therefore, I came up with a projection line of 184 points, which looking at the current lines, gives me enough edge to take the under in here on a Triple Dime Play! Considering the clear letdown spot for the Clippers and the good defense of Milwaukee, I'll also be taking the Bucks in here.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Milwaukee Bucks (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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