NBA - 513 Denver Nuggets @ 514 San Antonio Spurs
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: 204 points
This is a back to back game for Denver, who had yesterday four players on the court for more than 30 minutes. We are talking about a team with a lot of depth, however their spot for 3 games in 4 nights + back to back isn't easy! On the other side, San Antonio is rested after an easy home win against Dallas. The Nuggets had an usual offensive game against New Orleans last night: fast breaks + paint, but they struggled from the outside as always. So, it's important to check what the Spurs can do on defense and the truth is that they are coming from three games in a row where they've always faced teams with little explosion in the offense. Considering Denver is #1 in the league in fast break points per game with 24.2 ppg and also #1 in points in the paint per gsme with 52.8 ppg, while Dallas is #19 and #25, Golden State is #21 and #13 and Minnesota is #28 and #22 on those 2 departments, none of these three teams are even remotely close to what Denver is capable of doing on three areas, where they are clearly the best team in the NBA. Denver is also attempting 42.9% of their shots at the rim with a great 66% FG and the Spurs struggle in defending in this area of the court by allowing 69% FG! The short depth of San Antonio on this area is notorious with Blair, Duncan, Bonner and Splitter being the only frontcourt guys in the roster!
On the other side, Denver is coming from games where they faced three poor offensive teams in a row in Milwaukee, Sacramento and New Orleans. Tonight, Denver will have a lot of problems as looking at the fact that they are so aggressive pressuring the ball handler, they get really exposed and a team with good ball movement can cause them problems by taking advantage of the open spots! In fact, Denver is allowing 41% FG from 16-23 feet, which is a clear sign of what I've just said! Thanks to this aggressiveness. Denver's defense is just #16 in spot up plays by allowing 0.94 PPP! In their last two games, San Antonio has been using super small lineups with a lot of aucess and today, I don't see another alternative than Popovich countering Denver's lineups with their own smallball version! Therefore, I expect this game to be played at a fast pace, with both offenses creating a lot of problems to their opponent's defenses. So, I came up with a projection line of 204 points, high enough for me to take the over on this game on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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